Modeling the Impact of Carbon Border Policies on Emissions, Global Value Chains, and Welfare

Publication | July 2025
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This paper employs a computational general equilibrium model to estimate the impact of border carbon adjustment (BCA) policies on emissions and economic performance.

Results suggest that while an expanded scheme of carbon prices and BCAs can reduce emissions, underlying growth trends quickly undo the highest emissions reductions modeled. Results also suggest that in some cases the potential impacts of mitigation actions through domestic and trade-related carbon taxes may fall disproportionately on poorer regions.

Contents

  • Introduction
  • Literature Review
  • Methodology
  • The Estimated Impact of Carbon Pricing Scenarios
  • Conclusion
  • Appendix: Additional CGE Model Estimates

Additional Details

Subjects
  • Climate change
  • Economics
Pages
  • 30
Dimensions
  • 8.5 x 11
Publication Stock No.
  • WPS250274-2
ISSN
  • 2313-6537 (print)
  • 2313-6545 (PDF)

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