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Week 15 Game Probabilities
By
Brian Burke
Win probabilities for week 15 NFL games are listed below. The probabilities are based on an efficiency win model explained here and here with some modifications. The model considers offensive and defensive efficiency stats including running, passing, sacks, turnover rates, and penalty rates. Team stats are adjusted for previous opponent strength. Pwin GAME Pwin 0.48 NO at CHI 0.52 0.27 TB at ATL 0.73 0.53 PIT at BAL 0.47 0.20 DEN at CAR 0.80 0.83 WAS at CIN 0.17 0.69 TEN at HOU 0.31 0.05 DET at IND 0.95 0.57 GB at JAX 0.43 0.83 SD at KC 0.17 0.16 SF at MIA 0.84 0.37 BUF at NYJ 0.63 0.65 SEA at STL 0.35 0.26 MIN at ARI 0.74 0.61 NE at OAK 0.39 0.56 NYG at DAL 0.44 0.08 CLE at PHI 0.92
published on 12/11/2008
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9 Responses to “Week 15 Game Probabilities”
1st
Is this an anomaly or does this happen with regularity? I've noticed that this week NO is above CAR in team efficiencies yet CAR have a greater probability of winning their game.
Ed
Ed-I have CAR ranked #5 and NO ranked #9. Plus, NO's opponent is CHI, who is rated slightly higher than CAR's opponent DEN. Additionally, CAR is home and NO is away this week.
You are dealing with an idiot. I 'd meant to type in CHI rather than CAR. You have NO at number 9 and CHI at number 16 in team efficiencies. The probability of CHI winning is slightly higher than that of NO. I thought that home field advantage was not considered in the model.
This may have happened before but I've only just now noticed it.
Ed
wow brian, you've got people "firsting" on your comments section. congratulations.
Typo...
"Win probabilities for week 14 NFL games are listed below." should be week 15
Ed-No problem. HFA is part of the model.
Typo fixed. Thanks.
Yeah, I got my first "first." Thanks AJ, you made my day.
109-52-1 for 68% correct. Someone always asks.
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