Win probabilities for week 17 NFL games are listed below. Week 17 is notoriously unpredictable, so these probabilities should be understood to be based on the assumption both teams are playing at full strength. Adjust them as desired to account for teams resting starters or focusing on Caribbean beaches rather than the gameplan.

The probabilities are based on an efficiency win model explained here and here with some modifications. The model considers offensive and defensive efficiency stats including running, passing, sacks, turnover rates, and penalty rates. Team stats are adjusted for previous opponent strength.

1. Anonymous says:
   Wednesday, December 24, 2008

   brian...i think you'll find this article real interesting...sounds like this coach takes some of your ideas to an extreme...his statistics are based on college as opposed to NFL, but still the same principles...
   
   http://highschool.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=892888

2. Anonymous says:
   Wednesday, December 24, 2008

   related to that article...i've always wondered about teams going for onsides kicks more often in the nfl. obviously its less appealing kicking off at the 30 as opposed to the 40, but have you done research in regards to the advantage/disadvantages and expected point values of onsides kicks? i did see that they are more likely to work when teams are not expecting them, but even assuming that teams are expecting them, should teams be trying them more?

3. Anonymous says:
   Tuesday, December 30, 2008

   Thanks for helping me win my second straight victory in my work football pool!

Leave a Reply

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.