Week 16 Efficiency Rankings

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The ratings are listed below in terms of generic win probability. The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule, and all ratings include adjustments for opponent strength.

Offensive rank (ORANK) is offensive generic win probability which is based on each team's offensive efficiency stats only. In other words, it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. DRANK is is a team's generic win probability rank assuming it had a league-average offense.

GWP is based on a logistic regression model applied to current team stats. The model includes offensive and defensive passing and running efficiency, offensive turnover rates, and team penalty rates. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here. This year, however, I've made one important change based on research that strongly indicates that defensive interception rates are highly random and not consistent throughout the year. Accordingly, I've removed them from the model and updated the weights of the remaining stats.




RANK TEAM LAST WK GWP Opp GWP O RANK D RANK

1 CAR 2 0.78 0.55 6 7

2 ATL 3 0.76 0.57 1 16

3 PHI 4 0.76 0.52 10 2

4 PIT 1 0.74 0.54 20 1

5 SD 8 0.71 0.53 4 12

6 NO 6 0.70 0.54 2 14

7 NYG 5 0.70 0.53 3 11

8 TEN 7 0.69 0.44 15 4

9 WAS 10 0.66 0.52 11 10

10 MIA 9 0.64 0.42 5 20

11 BAL 13 0.64 0.52 19 3

12 IND 14 0.63 0.47 8 19

13 TB 12 0.62 0.58 18 8

14 DAL 11 0.61 0.52 16 9

15 CHI 15 0.59 0.52 22 6

16 NE 20 0.55 0.47 14 23

17 GB 17 0.54 0.55 12 17

18 MIN 18 0.53 0.51 25 5

19 DEN 19 0.50 0.49 7 26

20 ARI 16 0.50 0.51 9 24

21 NYJ 21 0.45 0.43 23 15

22 HOU 22 0.41 0.49 13 30

23 JAX 23 0.35 0.49 17 27

24 SF 26 0.33 0.48 24 25

25 BUF 24 0.33 0.43 27 21

26 OAK 30 0.31 0.55 30 13

27 KC 27 0.31 0.54 21 28

28 SEA 25 0.30 0.46 31 18

29 CIN 28 0.29 0.56 32 22

30 CLE 29 0.22 0.55 26 29

31 STL 31 0.16 0.50 28 31

32 DET 32 0.13 0.58 29 32






To-date efficiency stats below. As always, click on the headers to sort.





TEAM OPASS ORUN OINTRATE OFUMRATE DPASS DRUN DINTRATE PENRATE

ARI 7.0 3.3 0.024 0.028 6.5 4.0 0.023 0.37

ATL 7.4 4.1 0.022 0.015 6.1 4.9 0.019 0.31

BAL 5.7 4.0 0.029 0.026 5.1 3.5 0.048 0.39

BUF 6.0 4.2 0.033 0.035 6.3 4.4 0.021 0.29

CAR 7.1 4.8 0.030 0.015 5.6 4.4 0.022 0.33

CHI 5.5 3.9 0.029 0.015 5.8 3.4 0.038 0.31

CIN 4.3 3.5 0.031 0.028 6.4 4.0 0.026 0.29

CLE 4.8 3.9 0.038 0.024 7.1 4.5 0.053 0.34

DAL 6.7 4.3 0.038 0.029 5.2 4.3 0.016 0.50

DEN 7.1 4.7 0.028 0.020 6.9 4.8 0.013 0.35

DET 5.3 3.8 0.036 0.039 7.9 5.0 0.010 0.37

GB 6.6 3.9 0.025 0.021 6.0 4.7 0.042 0.49

HOU 7.1 4.3 0.039 0.029 7.0 4.5 0.028 0.33

IND 6.8 3.4 0.022 0.010 6.0 4.1 0.032 0.32

JAX 5.8 4.2 0.021 0.018 7.0 4.0 0.030 0.43

KC 5.4 4.9 0.032 0.022 7.2 5.0 0.026 0.30

MIA 7.1 4.2 0.015 0.016 6.2 4.2 0.029 0.35

MIN 5.9 4.5 0.038 0.028 5.9 3.2 0.024 0.36

NE 6.1 4.5 0.021 0.017 6.5 4.1 0.031 0.26

NO 7.7 4.0 0.029 0.019 6.2 4.1 0.030 0.39

NYG 6.1 5.0 0.022 0.018 5.6 4.0 0.034 0.42

NYJ 5.9 4.8 0.041 0.022 6.1 3.7 0.026 0.28

OAK 5.1 4.2 0.025 0.036 6.3 4.7 0.034 0.43

PHI 6.2 4.0 0.027 0.014 5.1 3.5 0.029 0.33

PIT 5.9 3.6 0.029 0.028 4.4 3.3 0.035 0.40

SD 7.6 3.8 0.024 0.019 6.2 3.9 0.023 0.37

SF 5.9 4.0 0.038 0.042 6.2 3.8 0.023 0.38

SEA 5.1 4.3 0.030 0.020 6.8 4.1 0.015 0.28

STL 5.2 3.8 0.039 0.024 7.3 4.7 0.024 0.38

TB 6.0 4.0 0.023 0.020 5.9 4.2 0.046 0.40

TEN 6.2 4.3 0.021 0.019 5.0 3.7 0.037 0.44

WAS 5.6 4.4 0.013 0.020 5.7 3.8 0.025 0.35

Avg 6.1 4.1 0.028 0.023 6.2 4.1 0.028 0.36


published on 12/23/2008 in ,
By Brian Burke

3 Responses to “Week 16 Efficiency Rankings”

  1. Jason says:
    Tuesday, December 23, 2008

    It saddens me to see the Eagles so high, but most likely on the outside of the playoffs looking in. Can I interpret this chart as that they are effective but poorly managed?

  2. Anonymous says:
    Tuesday, December 23, 2008

    I'd think it means that the Eagles are "effective at moving the ball between the 20's, but not so much at scoring".

  3. Brian Burke says:
    Tuesday, December 23, 2008

    That's probably true. The Eagles lost a bunch of very close games, and they really beat up on their weaker opponents. They are above average in every category, except 1--offensive rushing in which they are just about average. They're a really good team without a significant weakness, so they're record would normally be expected to be a game or two better.

    Two extra timely field goals could have made them 10-5 right now, on the inside track for the playoffs.

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