Demographic changes – such as in the number, age composition and spatial distribution of the population – are one of the megatrends of our times. They have profound implications for societies and are a major priority for many countries around the world.
These changes affect key development goals, with implications for labour markets, pensions, social protection, health, education, infrastructure, environment, economic growth, government budgets and public debt, among others.
Over the past decades, the world has witnessed new dynamics in mortality, fertility and migration. Not only is there a significant improvement in life expectancy – owing especially to a fall in infant and child mortality – but there is also a decline in fertility rates and accelerated human mobility and migration within and between countries. Together, these factors have had profound effects on population dynamics across the world.
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While the global population will continue to grow for decades to come, there are notable differences in demographic realities between countries. For example, the number of countries experiencing high fertility and rapid population growth is declining, and is now largely concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. And the number of countries with low fertility and slow, stagnant or negative population growth is rising. More than two thirds of the world’s population now lives in countries where the total fertility rate falls below the approximate replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. The replacement level is the average number of children a woman needs to have for a population to replace itself from one generation to the next.
Meanwhile, population ageing has become a universal phenomenon and is projected to occur more rapidly in middle-income countries, where the share of people aged 65 and over is expected to double over the next three decades. And population ageing will, in a growing number of countries, lead to population decline.
While population decline is not a new phenomenon – it has happened before mostly in the context of famines and wars – persistent population decline is a new reality. And although countries in Europe and Asia are leading the world into this new, unchartered phase of the demographic transition, over the coming years, others from all regions will follow suit.
Many governments have expressed concern about their demographic futures, and many are embarking on policies that aim to increase birth rates. While such policies can be perfectly compatible with fundamental human rights and choices when they support women and men to achieve their fertility aspirations, some responses threaten to undermine hard-won progress on gender equality and reproductive rights. These include scaling back commitments to universal access to family planning, removing comprehensive sexuality education from school curricula, promoting childbearing as a civic duty and reinforcing harmful gender stereotypes. Evidence shows that such measures are unlikely to reverse demographic trends, and may instead erode individual autonomy and women’s empowerment.
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UNFPA supports countries to adapt to demographic change while protecting rights and choices
Ultimately, the consequences of demographic change depend on how effectively countries anticipate, understand and adapt to it. Through its 2026-2029 Strategic Plan, UNFPA is strengthening its support for countries to navigate demographic transitions while upholding individual rights, informed choices and gender equality. As custodian of the Programme of Action of the landmark International Conference on Population and Development, UNFPA is uniquely positioned to lead and advance this agenda.
Crucially, UNFPA supports countries across the full demographic spectrum – from youthful, fast-growing populations hoping to harness the economic growth of having more people of working age, to rapidly ageing societies facing labour shortages, fiscal pressures and population decline.
How does UNFPA support countries on population and demographic change?
UNFPA’s work to support countries in understanding and adapting to demographic change and achieving demographic resilience is organized under five pillars:
Pillar I. Evidence base: Population data and analyses
UNFPA leads global efforts in population data, censuses and demographic analysis. Effective, rights-based responses to demographic change depend on high-quality population data and analysis in order to understand people’s needs and align investments accordingly. To this end, UNFPA also provides technical leadership in strengthening civil registration and vital statistics systems, producing population estimates and projections, including in humanitarian settings, and advancing geospatial and subnational population analysis.
Through flagship initiatives such as the Demographic Futures Survey, UNFPA is generating evidence on young people’s aspirations regarding partnerships, parenthood and life more broadly, helping policymakers better understand gaps between fertility intentions and outcomes, among other dimensions.
Pillar II. Upstream policy engagement: Development strategies and policies
Building on population data, estimates and projections, UNFPA supports countries in assessing the implications of demographic changes. Through tools such as national transfer accounts, UNFPA supports governments in analysing economic dependency patterns, intergenerational transfers, fiscal pressures and the prospects for realizing demographic dividends. These tools also highlight women’s contributions, including unpaid care work, to inform gender-responsive reforms.
Furthermore, UNFPA has pioneered Demographic Resilience Reviews, which estimate how changes in population size and age are likely to affect demand for public goods and services, budget allocations and long-term investment needs. UNFPA also produces Population Exposure Maps, which show at sub-national levels how populations are affected by climate change, natural disasters and other shocks.
Foresight analyses extend this work to examine interactions between demographic change and other global megatrends, notable technological shifts and climate change. Applying systems thinking and foresight methodologies, UNFPA maps possible and probable future scenarios and identifies preferred trajectories and practical policy options for integration into development strategies. This approach enables governments to build societies that are resilient to, and can thrive amid, unfolding demographic change.
While helping countries anticipate, plan for, adapt to and capitalize on demographic changes, UNFPA also supports countries in their pursuit of evidence- and rights-based population policies. In contrast to approaches that seek to engineer a desired total fertility rate, such policies focus on helping women and men achieve their fertility preferences, and thus expand rather than restrict rights and choices.
UNFPA translates evidence into actionable interventions tailored to specific demographic, economic and social contexts. These include strengthening family-friendly workplace policies, advancing rights-based migration approaches and managing urban growth and rural depopulation.
Pillar III. Downstream support: Programmes and services
UNFPA translates demographic insights into real-world programmes that improve lives by:
- Making essential contributions in line with UNFPA’s mandate on sexual and reproductive health and rights and gender equality. These include expanding universal access to quality sexual and reproductive health services, advancing comprehensive sexuality education and preventing adolescent pregnancy, as well as countering harmful practices such as child marriage and female genital mutilation and addressing gender inequity – from unequal and unpaid care burdens to labour market discrimination and gender-based violence. These factors influence both fertility intentions and women’s economic empowerment and can shape demographic outcomes. In West and Central Africa, for instance, the Sahel Women’s Empowerment and Demographic Dividend initiative advances investments in girls’ education, health and empowerment to support countries in realizing the demographic dividend.
- Promoting family-friendly workplace policies that support innovative care models, such as child day-care and intergenerational centres for older people.
Pillar IV. Shifting the narrative: Discussions and dialogue
Gathering people together and engaging in systematic communication is essential to promote a move from demographic anxieties to demographic resilience, leading to constructive, comprehensive and forward-looking responses to demographic challenges and to opportunities firmly grounded in evidence and human rights.
Pillar V. Capacity development: People and institutions
Along with leading demographic institutions and other critical partners from all regions of the world, UNFPA is committed to strengthening local capacities in the field of population and development.
With a view to lend comprehensive, coherent and integrated support to countries, UNFPA closely collaborates with sister agencies of the UN system. Together, these interventions strengthen social cohesion, support individuals in realizing their aspirations and enhance demographic resilience across diverse national contexts.
Updated 2 July 2026