Jiancang ZHUANG

Profile Information

Affiliation

The Institute of Statistical Mathematics

J-GLOBAL ID

201401008014887856

researchmap Member ID

B000234714

External link

http://bemlar.ism.ac.jp/zhuang/

Research Interests

• point process
• statistical seismology
• probability forecasting
• Hawkes process
• forecasting evaluation
• Bayesian method
• Neyman-Scott過程
• ETAS model
• Geohphysical inversion

Research Areas

• Natural sciences / Solid earth science / seismology
• Informatics / Statistical science /

Research History

• Apr, 2023 - Present

  The Institute of Statistical Mathematics
• Apr, 2012 - Mar, 2023

  The Institute of Statistical Mathematics

Committee Memberships

• 2023 - Present

  学会誌編集委員, 米国地震学会
• 2022 - 2023

  学会誌編集委員, 米国地震学会
• 2022 - 2023

  Organizer, The 12th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (Statsei 12)
• 2021 - 2022

  学会誌編集委員, 米国地震学会
• 2020 - 2021

  編集委員, AISM
• 2018 - 2019

  委員, 総合大学院大学研究教育委員会
• 2018 - 2019

  編集委員, AISM
• 2015 - 2016

  Associate Editor, Journal of Geophysical Research - Solid Earth, American Geophysical Union

Awards

• Dec, 2017

  "Geophysical Journal International" Outstanding reviewers 2017, 庄 建倉, Geophysical Journal International

  庄 建倉

Papers

• Statistical Characteristics of Seismicity Correlated With Crustal Fluids in the Noto Region

  Yicun Guo, Jiancang Zhuang, Guangyao Yin, Huai Zhang

  Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 130(9), Sep 17, 2025 Peer-reviewed
• Identification of Higher-Mode Numbers in Dispersion Curves for Rayleigh Wave Inversion

  Xiao-Hui Yang, Peng Han, Jiancang Zhuang, Yuanyuan Zhou, Gexue Bai, Ruidong Li, Wuhu Zhang, Xiaofei Chen

  IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 63 1-13, Jul 14, 2025 Peer-reviewed
• Revisiting Seismicity Criticality: A New Framework for Bias Correction of Statistical Seismology Model Calibrations

  Jiawei Li, Didier Sornette, Zhongliang Wu, Jiancang Zhuang, Changsheng Jiang

  Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 130(6), Jun 18, 2025 Peer-reviewed
• Bi‐Segment Fault Rupture and Long‐Lasting Intraslab Aftershock Activity During the 2017 Mw 8.2 Tehuantepec, Mexico Earthquake

  Fang Chen, Dun Wang, Shenghui Xu, Bing Yan, Junfeng Zhang, Yicun Guo, Dongdong Yao, Jiancang Zhuang, Gerardo Suárez, Peter Shearer

  Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 130(6), Jun 15, 2025 Peer-reviewed
• The influence of stress release on the spatial and magnitude distribution of subsequent earthquakes

  Giuseppe Petrillo, Eugenio Lippiello, Jiancang Zhuang, Warner Marzocchi

  Geophysical Journal International, 242(2), Jun 9, 2025 Peer-reviewed
• Forecasting strong subsequent earthquakes in Japan using an improved version of NESTORE machine learning algorithm

  S. Gentili, G.D. Chiappetta, G. Petrillo, P. Brondi, J. Zhuang

  Geoscience Frontiers, 16(3) 102016-102016, May, 2025 Peer-reviewed
• Stochastic determination of arrival time and initial polarity of seismic waveform

  Weilai Pei, Jiancang Zhuang, Shiyong Zhou

  Earth, Planets and Space, 77(1), Mar 18, 2025 Peer-reviewed
• On Solar‐Terrestrial Interactions: Correlation Between Intense Geomagnetic Storms and Global Strong Earthquakes

  Hongyan Chen, Peng Han, Jiancang Zhuang, Katsumi Hattori, Miao Miao, Kaiyan Hu, Tao Tao

  Geophysical Research Letters, 52(6), Mar 10, 2025 Peer-reviewed
• Earthquake Forecasting Based on b Value and Background Seismicity Rate in Yunnan Province, China

  Yuchen Zhang, Rui Wang, Haixia Shi, Miao Miao, Jiancang Zhuang, Ying Chang, Changsheng Jiang, Lingyuan Meng, Danning Li, Lifang Liu …

  Entropy, 27(2) 205-205, Feb 15, 2025 Peer-reviewed
• Statistical Characteristics of Strong Earthquake Sequence in Northeastern Tibetan Plateau

  Ying Wang, Rui Wang, Peng Han, Tao Zhao, Miao Miao, Lina Su, Zhaodi Jin, Jiancang Zhuang

  Entropy, 27(2) 174-174, Feb 6, 2025 Peer-reviewed
• Seismic clusters and fluids diffusion: a lesson from the 2018 Molise (Southern Italy) earthquake sequence

  Stefania Gentili, Piero Brondi, Giuliana Rossi, Monica Sugan, Giuseppe Petrillo, Jiancang Zhuang, Stefano Campanella

  Earth, Planets and Space, 76(1), Dec 4, 2024 Peer-reviewed
• Earthquake Predictability and Forecast Evaluation Using Likelihood-Based Marginal and Conditional Scores

  Jiancang Zhuang

  Seismological Research Letters, 95(6) 3593-3603, Nov, 2024 Peer-reviewed
• Preface to the Focus Section on Statistical Seismology, Devoted to the Memory of the Late Yan Kagan, Dave Jackson, and Ilya Zaliapin

  Frederic Schoenberg, Maximilian Werner, Yufang Rong, David Marsan, Jiancang Zhuang

  Seismological Research Letters, 95(6) 3156-3160, Oct 17, 2024 Peer-reviewed
• Spatio-Temporal Hawkes Point Processes: A Review

  Alba Bernabeu, Jiancang Zhuang, Jorge Mateu

  Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, 30(1) 89-119, Sep 19, 2024 Peer-reviewed
• Developing, Testing, and Communicating Earthquake Forecasts: Current Practices and Future Directions

  Leila Mizrahi, Irina Dallo, Nicholas J. van der Elst, Annemarie Christophersen, Ilaria Spassiani, Maximilian J. Werner, Pablo Iturrieta, José A. Bayona, Iunio Iervolino, Max Schneider …

  Reviews of Geophysics, 62(3), Aug 13, 2024 Peer-reviewed
• Conceptual Water Main Failure Risk: Self-Excitation, Pipe Age, and Statistical Modeling Performance

  Charles Hammond, Jiancang Zhuang, Casey LeBlanc, Sarah Rahimi-Ardabily, Tao Zhang, Robert Good, Frank Loge

  Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 150(10), Aug, 2024 Peer-reviewed
• A Bayesian Merging of Earthquake Magnitudes Determined by Multiple Seismic Networks

  Zhengya Si, Jiancang Zhuang, Stefania Gentili, Changsheng Jiang, Weitao Wang

  Seismological Research Letters, 95(6) 3221-3233, Jul 2, 2024 Peer-reviewed
• Statistical modeling of 3D seismicity and its correlation with fault slips along major faults in California

  Yicun Guo, Jiancang Zhuang, Huai Zhang

  Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 638(118747), Jul, 2024 Peer-reviewed
• Distribution Related to All Samples and Extreme Events in the ETAS Cluster

  Ilaria Spassiani, Giuseppe Petrillo, Jiancang Zhuang

  Seismological Research Letters, 95(6) 3234-3242, Jun 27, 2024 Peer-reviewed
• Fluids-Triggered Swarm Sequence Supported by a Nonstationary Epidemic-Like Description of Seismicity

  Giuseppe Petrillo, Takao Kumazawa, Ferdinando Napolitano, Paolo Capuano, Jiancang Zhuang

  Seismological Research Letters, Jun 27, 2024 Peer-reviewed

Misc.

• Statistical Models for Earthquake Clustering and Declustering

  57(1) 179-193, Jun, 2009
• Residual analysis for spatial point processes - Discussion

  WS Kendall, E Renshaw, A Lawson, J Mateu, F Saura, EF Harding, D Stoyan, JC Zhuang, J Besag, P Diggle …

  JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES B-STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY, 67 651-666, 2005
• Stochastic reconstruction of characteristics associated with earthquake clusters

  ZHUANG Jiancang, OGATA Yosihiko

  71 527-528, Sep 1, 2003
• E-2 Stochastic Reconstruction of Characteristics Associated with Earthquake Clusters(Summary of the Reports at the 71th Annual Meeting) :

  Ogata

  33(3) 419-419, 2003
• B-5 Statistical confirmation of a relationship between precursors and earthquakes :

  Vere-Jones David

  32(3) 380-380, 2002
• C-2 A model based method alternative to declustering for estimating the background seismicity(日本統計学会第68回大会記録 : 時系列解析・制御理論 (1))

  庄 建倉, David Vere-Jones

  日本統計学会誌, 30(3) 339-339, 2000

Books and Other Publications

• Statistical Seismology

  Zhuang, Jiancang, 統数研

  Aug, 2022
• Explaining foreshock and the Båth law using a generic earthquake clustering model

  Zhuang, Jiancang, 統数研

  Jan, 2021
• Multiple Linear Regression Analyses on the Relationships among Magnitude, Rupture Length, Rupture Width, Rupture Area, and Surface Displacement

  Chu, Annie Woodbury, University, CA

  Apr, 2016
• Multiple Linear Regression Analyses on the Relationships among Magnitude, Rupture Length, Rupture Width, Rupture Area, and Surface Displacement

  Chu, Annie Woodbury, University, USA, Zhuang, Jiancang 統数研

  Jan, 2016
• Stochastic simulation of earthquake catalogues

  Zhuang, Jiancang (ISM, Touati, Sarah, of Edinbur

  Mar, 2015
• Statistical modeling of earthquake occurrences based on external geophysical observations: with an illustrative application to the ultra-low frequency ground electric signals observed in the Beijing region

  Zhuang, Jiancang (ISM, Vere-Jones, David (Victoria, Univ. of Wellington, New Zealand, Ogata, Yosihiko (ISM, Ma, Li, itute, of Earthquake Science, China Earthquake Administration, Guan, Huaping, stitute of Earthquake Science, China Earthquake Administration

  Apr, 2014

Presentations

• Cluster identification and fluid migration: the case of the 2018 Molise (Italy) sequence

  Gentili, S, Brondi, P, Sugan, M, Rossi, G, Petrillo, G, Zhuang, J, Campanella, S

  39th General Assembly (GA) of the European Seismological Commission (ESC2024), Sep 26, 2024
• NESTORE Machine Learning Algorithm applied to forecast Strong Subsequent Earthquakes in Japan

  Gentili, S, Chiappetta, G.D, Petrillo, G, Brondi, P, Zhuang, J, Di Giovambattista, R

  39th General Assembly (GA) of the European Seismological Commission (ESC2024), Sep 26, 2024
• Bayesian non-parametric inference for the ETAS model

  Niu, Y, Zhuang, J

  Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2024, May 27, 2024
• The ETAS model can explain both foreshock and the Båth Law

  Zhuang, J

  Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2024, May 26, 2024
• Magnitude correlation in earthquake triggering: Artifact or reality?

  Petrillo, G, Zhuang, J

  13th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology(StatSei13), Mar 17, 2024
• Statistical modeling of 3D Seismicity and its correlation with fault slips along Major Faults in California

  Guo, Y, Zhuang, J, Zhang, H

  13th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology(StatSei13, Mar 17, 2024
• Explaining both foreshock and the Båth Law using the ETAS model

  Zhuang, J

  13th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology(StatSei13), Mar 17, 2024
• A study of changes in global background and clustering seismicity over the last two decades

  Xiong, Z, Zhuang, J

  13th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology(StatSei13), Mar 16, 2024
• Unveiling the Enigma of Earthquake Triggering: Debunking Magnitude Correlation Debates

  Petrillo, G, Zhuang, J

  2023 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union(AGU), Dec 15, 2023
• Changes of global background and clustering seismicity during past twenty years

  Zhuang, J, Xiong, Z

  2023 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union(AGU), Dec 14, 2023
• Statistical Seismology Expanded: Observation, Modeling, Testing, and Forecasting I-IV (Poster and Oral sessions)

  Zhuang, J

  2023 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union(AGU), Dec 14, 2023
• A hypocentral version of the spherical space-time ETAS model

  Li, Y, Zhuang, J, Chen, S

  2023 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, Nov 2, 2023
• Detection of changes in global background and clustering seismicity

  Zhuang, J, Xiong, Z

  2023 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, Nov 2, 2023
• No Evidence of Magnitude Dependence in Earthquake Triggering

  Petrillo, G, Zhuang, J

  2023 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, Nov 1, 2023
• A Bayesian non-parametric method of estimating the background intensity of ETAS model

  Niu, Y, Zhuang, J

  Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting 2023, Sep 6, 2023
• Filtering of renewal Hawkes processes and related statistical inference

  Zhuang, J

  Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting 2023, Sep 6, 2023
• On extending the ETAS model

  Zhuang, J

  10th International Workshop on Applied Probability (IWAP2023), Jun 8, 2023
• Second-order smoothness prior over the Delaunay Tessellation and its application to gravity Bayesian inversion

  Niu, Y, Zhuang, J

  Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2023, May 24, 2023
• Evaluating earthquake forecasting models with likelihood based marginal and conditional scores

  Zhuang, J

  Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2023, May 23, 2023
• Global background earthquakes have shown a steady trend over the past twenty years

  Xiong, Z, Zhuang, J

  Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2023, May 22, 2023

Research Projects

• Development of Statistical Inference of Generalized Hawkes process Including the Missing Problem

  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Apr, 2023 - Mar, 2026
• New developments in space-time earthquake forecasting and monitoring: from long-term to real-time

  May, 2021 - Mar, 2026
• ホークス型点過程の多様な応用に向けた統計的モデリング・推論と応用の総合的研究

  科研費基盤研究(B), Apr, 2019 - Mar, 2022

  庄 建倉、尾形良彦、Stephen Wu、矢野恵佑、山田真澄、岩田貴樹、楠城一嘉
• Study on comprehensive probability forecast of large earthquake

  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A), Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Apr, 2014 - Mar, 2017

  Ogata Yosihiko, Zhuang Jiancang, Enescu Bogdan, Tsuruoka Hiroshi, Nomura Shun'ichi, Kumazawa Takao, Iwata Takaki, Matsu'ura Mitsuhiro, Murata Yasuaki, Omi Takahiro, Han Peng, Katsura Koichi
• 固体地球科学に資する次世代型データ同化法の創出

  科研費基盤研究(B), Apr, 2014 - Mar, 2017

  長尾 大道, 東京大学地震研究所
• Refine statistical models for earthquakes

  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Apr, 2013 - Mar, 2016

  Zhuang Jiancang, KATO Shogo, OGATA Yosihiko, KUMAZAWA Takao, IWATA Takaki
• 固体地球科学に資する次世代型データ同化法の創出

  科研費基盤研究(B), Apr, 2014 - Mar, 2016

  長尾 大道, 東京大学地震研究所
• 地震活動の統計的なモデルリングの高度化

  科研費基盤研究(C), Apr, 2013 - Mar, 2015

  庄 建倉
• Strategic research of effective prediction to increase the probability gain statistical space-time model for diagnosing abnormal seismic activity

  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A), Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Apr, 2011 - Mar, 2014

  OGATA Yosihiko, ZHUANG Jiancang, KATO Shogo, MATSU'URA Mitsuhiro, SUGAYA Katsunori, TODA Shinji, TSURUOKA Hirosi, IWATA Takaki
• Improving earthquake prediction algorithms based on earthquake clustering models

  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B), Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, 2010 - 2012

  ZHUANG Jiancang
• Construction of the foundations of statistical earthquake prediction research

  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A), Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, 2008 - 2010

  OGATA Yosihiko, TANEMURA Masaharu, TODA Shinji, ZHUANG Jiancang, TSURUOKA Hiroshi, TAMURA Yoshiyasu, SATO Seisho, KAWASAKI Yoshinori, SHIMAZAKI Kunihiko, MASE Shigeru, SHIBATA Ritei, ANDREA Llenos, SEBASTIAN Hainzl, JEFFREY J., DAVID Vere-Jones
• Statistical interferences and models to partially observed point processes

  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (Start-up), Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, 2008 - 2009

  ZHUANG Jiancang
• 統計モデルによる地震活動の計測と前駆現象の定量的研究

  科学研究費助成事業, 特別研究員奨励費, 日本学術振興会, 2004 - 2005

  尾形 良彦, 庄 建倉
• 統計モデルによる地震活動の計測と前駆現象の定量的研究

  科学研究費助成事業, 特別研究員奨励費, 日本学術振興会, 2004 - 2005

  尾形 良彦, 庄 建倉