The latest findings of the CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee (EABCDC) - September 2025

The modest beat of the European economy

The CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee convened on September 12, 2025, to assess the current state of economic activity in the euro area, using quarterly data through the second quarter of 2025 and monthly data through July 2025. Year-on-year real GDP growth has picked up over the past year but remains modest. Employment continued to expand, though at a slowing pace. The euro area’s unemployment rate matched its historic low of 6.2% in July 2025.
The report focuses primarily on statistics excluding Ireland, given that variation in that country’s national accounts data often does not reflect the reality of domestic economic activity. Excluding Ireland reduces volatility but also reduces average growth. Overall, the euro area has grown with a modest beat. Among the larger economies, Spain stands out for its steady and resilient growth, whereas Germany’s performance has been notably stagnant.

The full statement of the CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee is available here.

About the Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee

The CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee establishes the chronology of recessions and expansions of the eleven original euro area member countries plus Greece for 1970-1998, and of the entire euro area from 1999 onwards.

It also comments, in the spring and in the fall, on the current state of aggregate economic activity in the euro area and launches research initiatives designed to better monitor and understand aggregate economic developments in the euro area.

Dating activities and bi-annual statements on the state of euro area economic activity are conducted in total independence of EABCN. Research initiatives launched and pursued by the Committee are subject to the approval and evaluation of the EABCN Scientific Committee.