MathNotations

Mathmom contributed some insightful thoughts about how most middle school students might feel about the probability investigation from the other day. I agree with her that some would be able to compute the results or even devise a general formula but "proving" it in the general case might be too ambitious. In my reply, I suggested there might be another way of deriving the formula 1/N for the probability of losing the game. Here's what I came up with. It still requires some careful development to show that the outcomes are equally likely but I will indicate how it could be done in the particular case where N = 10.

Brief Explanation of Method:
There are N equally likely (to be shown) ways for the game to end (i.e., when the red card is selected). Of these, only one will result in a loss -- when the red is the last card chosen. Therefore, the probability of losing is 1/N, hence the probability of winning is 1 - 1/N or (N-1)/N.

Demonstrating "Equally Likely" for N = 10:
P(game ending after one card) = 1/10
P(game ending after 2 cards) = P(black selected followed by red) = (9/10)(1/9) = 1/10
P(ending after 3 cards) = P(black,black,red) = (9/10)(8/9)(1/8) = 1/10
etc...

The general case is similar using N in place of 10. I do think that students with some understanding of algebra could follow it but deriving it on their own is another story!

I also indicated that I might provide a program for the TI-83 or -84 which could be used to simulate the game. The programming skills needed are not that advanced and some high schoolers or even middle schoolers can pick up on the code and begin writing their own programs - I've seen it happen! Here it is...











T represents the number of times the game is played with 3 cards. I entered 100 for the number of trials. K stores the number of times Dorothy won when playing 100 times. Can you make sense of the rest of the code?

The experimental probability of 0.68 is reasonably close to the theoretical probability of 2/3. I often feel more confident of my reasoning in difficult probability problems when my simulation approximates my answer. This doesn't prove anything but it does have value IMO. There is also the opportunity to demonstrate some important stat concepts by running the program several times and having students plot the experimental probabilities and observing their distribution.

Posted by Dave Marain at 7:59 AM 5 comments

Labels: compound probability, probability, statistics, TI program

Summer vacation is an appropriate time for fantasy. Enjoy the hiatus!



The following investigation is not intended to be a math contest challenge. It reviews fundamental principles of probability and you might want to bookmark it for the fall. We can also simulate the first problem using the programming capabilities of a graphing calculator. I may post a simple program for this later on.


The wizard will let Dorothy go home if she can pass three challenges.

He shows Dorothy 3 playing cards, 2 of which are black and one is red. He shuffles them and turns them face down. "Dorothy, here's your first challenge."

"You will pick a card. If it's red the game ends, you win the game. If it's black, I will remove the card and you will pick a card from the remaining two. If it's red you still win! Ah, but if it's black again you and Toto and your weird friends will remain here for at least one more month."

Well, Dorothy won the game and said, "Now, I want to go home!" But the crafty wizard said, "You weren't listening carefully, Dorothy. I never said you can go home if you won the game. You've only passed the first challenge. You must still pass two more." "That's not fair!" Dorothy protested but the wizard makes his own rules in Oz.

"Alright, Dorothy, you won the game but you knew the odds were in your favor since you had two chances to win. Here's your next challenge:

"What was the probability of your winning and you must give me two correct but different methods?"

Dorothy asked, "These are the remaining challenges, so if I get them right, I can go home, yes??"
"I will not lie to you, Dorothy. This is your 2nd challenge. There will still be one more."

Dorothy was upset but knew she had no choice but to trust him. She thought about the problem for a minute and replied, "The probability of my winning was 2/3. I know I'm right!"
"Very good, Dorothy, but you must explain that answer two different ways." Fortunately, Dorothy was a very responsible middle school student back in Kansas and had learned the methods of compound probabilities and the idea of complementary events (this is a fantasy after all!).

Dorothy was able to provide two correct methods. Can you?

"Very good, Dorothy! You only have one more challenge to conquer and you can go home.
This time there are N cards, one of which is red while the remaining cards are black. N is a positive integer greater than 1. Same rules as before. The cards are shuffled and laid out face down. You pick a card. If it's red the game is over and you win. If it's black, the card is removed and you try again. The game continues until you pick the red card. The only way to lose the game is if you pick all the black cards and the last card remaining is red."

"In terms of N, what is the probability that you will win? Oh, yes, you again have to show two different methods in detail on this magic board over here."

This time, Dorothy needs your help. She can guess the formula but she needs our help to show two ways to derive it. Please help Dorothy go home!

Posted by Dave Marain at 6:41 AM 4 comments

Labels: compound probability, investigations, math challenge, middle school, probability