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Week 14 Efficiency Rankings
By
Brian Burke
NFL team efficiency rankings are listed below in terms of generic winning probability. The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule. GWP modifies the generic win probability to reflect the strength of past opponents. Offensive ranking (O Rank) is based on each team's offensive GWP, i.e. it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. D Rank is vice-versa. Rankings are based on a logistic regression model applied to data through week 14. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here.
Rank Team Last Wk GWP Opp GWP O Rank D Rank
1 NE 1 0.89 0.55 1 5
2 IND 3 0.87 0.54 4 1
3 DAL 2 0.82 0.49 2 6
4 TB 4 0.76 0.48 6 7
5 JAX 6 0.72 0.55 3 13
6 GB 7 0.70 0.48 5 12
7 SEA 8 0.68 0.40 11 8
8 PIT 5 0.67 0.46 14 3
9 SD 9 0.64 0.52 15 4
10 PHI 10 0.58 0.54 8 21
11 MIN 11 0.57 0.45 10 15
12 DEN 15 0.56 0.49 7 23
13 TEN 14 0.55 0.53 24 2
14 NYG 12 0.52 0.49 19 10
15 WAS 13 0.51 0.54 20 9
16 BUF 17 0.50 0.56 16 14
17 CLE 16 0.47 0.47 9 29
18 HOU 18 0.46 0.50 17 26
19 NYJ 19 0.44 0.53 21 22
20 CIN 20 0.43 0.51 12 30
21 NO 24 0.41 0.50 13 32
22 BAL 21 0.36 0.51 25 16
23 ARI 22 0.36 0.44 22 19
24 ATL 25 0.34 0.49 18 28
25 KC 23 0.32 0.53 31 11
26 DET 30 0.31 0.52 23 18
27 CAR 27 0.31 0.49 30 17
28 MIA 26 0.29 0.54 27 25
29 STL 28 0.28 0.46 29 20
30 OAK 29 0.26 0.46 26 27
31 CHI 31 0.25 0.52 28 31
32 SF 32 0.14 0.45 32 24
published on 12/11/2007
in
team efficiency,
team rankings
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