Thursday, September 06, 2018
California bail
First, I am not persuaded that an algorithm will be less biased(*) than the average of judges.
Second, there is likely to be a difference between the sets of "flight risk" and "flight risk when you have a sizeable chunk of money at stake." The second set is going to be a lot smaller--that's the whole point of bail, if you do it right.
I figure the algorithms-that-be will screw up a lot, and in addition will deny release to a larger number of people than before. If you try to force the before and after rates of bail-denial to match, the system will have a larger number of no-shows.
Perhaps that's a feature and not a bug? More no-shows means fewer convictions which means less stress on an over-full prison system.
(*) Google "fixed" its algorithm by removing gorillas from the training set.