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Tuesday, August 17, 2004

GOOG and EBAY

Andrew Goodman points out that Google's latest 10-Q shows their six month revenues (ending June 30) to be an impressive 1ドル.35B with nearly 100% growth over the year ago six month period.

Taking this one step further, it's interesting to compare GOOG with EBAY. In Q2 2004, Google had 700ドルM in revenue, eBay had 773ドルM. Net income from operations is about the same for both at 25-30% of revenue. Google grew at 125% compared to Q2 2003, eBay grew at 52%. Google's market cap is projected to be about 30ドルB, eBay's is 52ドルB.

There's so much uncertainty about Google's future income that I have a hard time determining what a fair value is for the company. But I think this comparison with eBay is instructive.

Update: It's being widely reported that Google's IPO is undersubscribed. The initial share price will be set at only 85,ドル yielding a market cap of 23ドルB, less than half of EBAY.

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