Main contents start here
Intercensal Adjustment of Current Population Estimates (2010 - 2015)
e-Stat is "Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan" (external site) where you can browse statistics tables and database.
I Method of Intercensal Adjustment of Current Population Estimates
The intercensal adjusted population
The population estimates as of the first day of each month are calculated using the recent census population. However, the estimated population as of October 1, 2015 based on the Census population of 2010 is not necessarily equal to the Census population of 2015. Therefore, the population estimates between the 2010 and the 2015 Population Censuses have been revised by the intercensal adjustment.
The intercensal adjustment was made for the following population.
(1) The population by sex for Japan as of the first day of each month (November 2010 to September 2015)
(2) The population by sex for prefectures as of October 1 of each year (2011 to 2014)
Note: No adjustment has been made for the population by age.
Outline of intercensal adjustment
1 Intercensal adjusted population as of the first day of each month, Japan
(1) Method of calculationIntercensal adjusted population of the stated month
= Intercensal adjusted population of the previous month
+ Total net change of the previous month
+ Intercensal adjustment value
(2) Intercensal adjusted population of the previous month (Base population)
The complete counts of Census population are used as the base population for the month following a Population Census, and for the month after the following month and thereafter, the final population estimate as of the first day of the previous month is used.
As for October 1, 2010, it is the Census population of 2010 (included unknown age population after being prorated).
(3) Total net change (from the first day to the last day of the previous month)
+ Migration change
+ Net increase by change of nationality (for Japanese population only)
The difference between the estimated population as of October 1, 2015 based on the complete counts of 2010 Population Census and the complete counts of 2015 Population Census is equally divided and applied to the estimate of each month.
[画像:Intercensal adjustment for each month]
2 Intercensal adjusted population as of October 1 of each year by prefectures
(1) Method of calculationIntercensal adjusted population of the stated year
= Intercensal adjusted population of the previous year
+ Total net change from October of the previous year to September of the stated year
+ Intercensal adjustment value
(2) Intercensal adjusted population of the previous year (Base population)
The complete counts of Census population are used as the base population for the year following a Population Census, and for the year after the following year and thereafter, the final population estimates as of October 1 of the previous year is used as the base population.
As for October 1, 2010, it is the Census population of 2010 (included unknown age population after being prorated).
(3) Total net change (from October of the previous year to September of the stated year)
+ Migration change
+ Net increase by change of nationality (for Japanese population only)
The difference between the estimated population as of October 1, 2015 based on the complete counts of 2010 Population Census and the complete counts of 2015 Population Census is equally divided and applied to the estimate of each year.
[画像:Intercensal adjustment for each year]
