Lebanon proxy conflict is derailing Trump’s Iran deal

This week’s collapse of the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which had held for nearly 60 days and was part of a broader US-Iran truce, is a blow to President Donald Trump’s efforts to conclude a permanent agreement with Tehran that would initially reopen the Strait of Hormuz and later lead to a full deal to resolve Iran’s nuclear threat. The two sides exchanged blows, with Iran raining missiles on Israel on Sunday night in retaliation for an Israeli strike that hit Beirut’s southern district earlier that day.

Despite Trump’s attempt to dissuade Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from responding, Israel carried out a number of airstrikes deep into Iranian territory on Monday. Iran did not waver and struck what it said were military bases in Israel. By early morning Washington time, Trump posted on social media that both sides were seeking an immediate ceasefire and that final peace negotiations were proceeding, adding that things should move quickly.

Soon after, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards announced they had ended strikes against Israel. Later that day, Israel too said it had heeded Trump’s call to end its attacks on Iran. But senior Iranian officials made it clear: not only was Beirut off-limits but so was southern Lebanon. Israel doubled down, saying that the ceasefire with Iran had nothing to do with its military operations in southern Lebanon and that even Beirut’s southern district — Hezbollah’s main stronghold — would be struck whenever Tel Aviv deemed necessary. Netanyahu later announced that Israel’s mission to defeat the pro-Iran Lebanese militia was not over.

Iran wanted to emphasize that the April 8 ceasefire agreement with the US covered all fronts, including Lebanon

Osama Al-Sharif

By Monday afternoon, the two sides were at it again. Hezbollah attacked the Israeli military presence in occupied southern Lebanon, while Israel resumed its bombardment of Lebanese targets in the south, including the city of Tyre. Iran made verbal threats but held its ground.

Since Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire on April 16, the Lebanese government has documented nearly 3,500 Israeli violations of the truce. Hezbollah responded by attacking Israeli military positions in southern Lebanon and firing rockets and drones into northern Israel. The White House did not intervene to stop the Israeli encroachment on Lebanese territory or the widespread demolition of Lebanese towns and villages, even as Washington hosted historic direct negotiations between the Lebanese government and Israel — talks that Hezbollah had rejected.

An agreement between Beirut and Tel Aviv to observe a ceasefire, without mentioning an Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, was also rebuffed by Hezbollah and never went into effect.

Yet, when Israel threatened to carry out strikes on Beirut last week, Trump claimed to have told Netanyahu to back down — only to be quoted shortly after as saying he supported Israel’s surgical strikes against Hezbollah.

Lebanon has become a bargaining chip in the US-Iran standoff. Netanyahu was more than happy to carry out the systematic destruction of southern Lebanon as long as Washington looked away, using the card as leverage over Tehran’s new leaders. Hezbollah — Iran’s most valuable regional proxy — was losing territory and grassroots support. It had become Iran’s soft underbelly as Tehran attempted to strengthen its negotiating position with Trump.

Iran had to respond for several reasons. It wanted to emphasize that the April 8 ceasefire agreement with the US covered all fronts, including Lebanon. It also sought to break the diplomatic stalemate with Washington by stirring the pot at a moment when Trump is facing domestic pressure to resolve the Gulf crisis — one largely of his own making. And it wanted to demonstrate that it still held full command over its proxies: Hezbollah in Lebanon, pro-Shiite militant groups in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen. On Monday, the Houthis fired two long-range ballistic missiles toward Israel and vowed to close the Bab Al-Mandab Strait to all Israel-bound vessels.

For Netanyahu, Tehran’s attempt to link any US-Iran agreement to its ongoing military campaign in Lebanon is a red line. The concept of "the unity of the arenas" — Iran’s insistence on treating all regional fronts as interconnected — is anathema to Israel.

Questions are mounting over Netanyahu’s toxic influence on the Trump White House and the Republican Party

Osama Al-Sharif

The one-day showdown between Iran and Israel has laid bare the structural weakness of Trump’s regional policy. More than 100 days have passed since he launched his war of choice against Iran — one that observers believe has failed on all counts. He has yet to negotiate a deal with Tehran that could be seen as an improvement on former President Barack Obama’s 2015 nuclear agreement.

Trump is facing a backlash at home and among his regional and foreign allies. His "no more foreign wars" election mantra has become a political liability. Questions are also mounting over Netanyahu’s toxic influence on the Trump White House and the Republican Party. Whether Trump asked Netanyahu not to retaliate against Iran’s Sunday night attacks or quietly gave him the green light for limited strikes, the question of who is really in charge — and who holds leverage over whom — is now reverberating through Washington.

Iran’s attacks and Israel’s reprisals have pushed the crisis to a new level. Israel continues to strike southern Lebanon and Hezbollah is hitting back. Netanyahu has admitted this will not be the last round of fighting with Iran. Trump’s promises of an imminent deal have been tested and found wanting. The region and the wider world continue to pay the price of the Gulf stalemate.

The Lebanese crisis, meanwhile, could quickly spiral into a broader regional war. Iran has made clear that Lebanon and its proxy represent new red lines. Israel, for its part, cannot afford to be seen as defeated in Lebanon, with Hezbollah posing what it regards as an existential threat.

Conspicuously absent from this dangerous equation are America’s regional allies, which continue to bear the cost of a shortsighted US policy that places Israel’s expansionist interests above all others. Trump may soon lose interest and walk away from the wreckage his war of choice has left across the region. What would remain would be a series of festering, unresolved conflicts.

If there is one lesson to be drawn from the past few months, it is this: a clear separation between US and Israeli policy in the region is not optional — it is essential if America is to balance its alliances and protect its long-term interests. Netanyahu’s regional agenda has proven disruptive, self-serving and deeply damaging to sustainable ties between Washington and its regional partners.

• Osama Al-Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.

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