Why Saudi Arabia wants the Iran war to end

Considering the long list of complaints Saudi Arabia has had against Iran over the years, many wonder why the Kingdom is supporting diplomatic efforts to end a war that could possibly eliminate a major irritant. The question is a good one, but the answer is complicated.

In 1979, soon after the revolution, Tehran put Saudi Arabia in its crosshairs. In a futile attempt to destabilize the Kingdom, it set up terrorist groups that fomented sectarian strife, sabotaged oil installations, attacked security forces and even called for parts of Saudi Arabia to be put under Iran’s control. All that mischief failed.

During the last 47 years, Saudi Arabia has thrived. Its social and economic indicators have skyrocketed and its economy has grown more than tenfold, from 112ドル billion in 1979 to 1ドル.24 trillion now. Iran, by contrast, has stumbled. Choosing to live by its own rules and disregarding international norms for state conduct, it has become a pariah among nations, a rogue state, spending its wealth on terrorist and separatist groups and stoking hatred and discord throughout the region and beyond.

Despite this history, Saudi Arabia opposed the war before it started and is now pushing to end it as soon as possible.

Monday marks 100 days since the war started on Feb. 28, but there does not appear to be an end in sight. The objectives announced by US President Donald Trump are no closer to being achieved today than they were at the start — and they may even be more distant.

Despite this history, Saudi Arabia opposed the war before it started and is now pushing to end it as soon as possible

Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg

More than 60 days after a ceasefire was announced on April 8, the war goes on, albeit at a slower pace. The Strait of Hormuz has remained effectively closed for 100 days now, with a few exceptions. Thousands of ships are stuck at sea around the world and on both sides of the waterway. The fate of the global economy hinges on getting it reopened, as do the livelihoods and well-being of billions of people around the world.

This in part explains why Saudi Arabia wants the war to end. Over the past few years, it has sought diplomatic solutions to complicated issues, such as the Israel-Palestine conflict, the Yemen war and its perennial dispute with Iran. But in addition to this principled position, the war and the closure of the Hormuz waterway have wreaked havoc with the economies of both the Gulf and the rest of the world, including many poor and fragile states, which may not survive if the war and the closure continue.

The Gulf conflict demonstrates how the regional and the global are intertwined, because the Gulf is integrated with the world economy and finance. It is a clear example of the intersection between geopolitics and geoeconomics.

The Gulf Cooperation Council economies have been directly affected, to varying degrees, by the crisis. Last October, the International Monetary Fund projected healthy 2026 growth rates for some GCC states, exceeding 6 percent. Now, it expects some of them to shrink by more than 8 percent, depending on how long the closure lasts and how dependent each state is on the waterway for its exports.

In addition to the decline or halt of exports, there is the physical damage resulting from Iranian attacks and the invisible damage from lost opportunities, as investment decisions are delayed or rescaled.

The conflict demonstrates how the regional and the global are intertwined. It shows the intersection between geopolitics and geoeconomics

Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg

While government revenues are also significantly affected in GCC states, they are fortunate enough to have accumulated wealth from better times, which can be used to maintain their style of living for a while. However, there are scores of less-fortunate countries that have been worse affected by this war.

Before its closure, about 13 million barrels of oil crossed the Strait of Hormuz daily, as did about 140 billion cubic meters of natural gas. About 20 percent of the world’s supply of fertilizers also crossed the waterway, including 46 percent of urea. The fuel and fertilizer shortages are having an impact on food production, which could get worse.

Industrial production has been affected by the diminished exports from the Gulf of critical materials such as aluminum, steel, sulfur and methanol. For example, Qatar used to supply about a third of the world’s needs of helium.

For these reasons, the IMF has recalculated expected global growth rates. In January, it predicted that the world economy was going to grow at about 3.4 percent during 2026, as there was some optimism that the international economy was starting to recover from the US-China trade war and unprecedented tariffs.

However, after the Iran war broke out and the Strait of Hormuz was closed, it put the growth rate for 2026 at only 2 percent if things stay the same until the end of the year. Inflation may rise to a devastating 6 percent. We have not seen these levels since the global financial crisis in 2008-09.

Saudi Arabia is not the country worst affected by the closure of the strait because it has other export channels through the Red Sea and extensive land routes. However, the Kingdom thrives when the world economy is growing because the volume and value of its exports depend on healthy global demand.

Equally importantly, ending the war and reopening the strait will allow Saudi Arabia to resume its quest for regional stability and prosperity.

• Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg is the GCC assistant secretary-general for political affairs and negotiation. The views expressed here are personal and do not necessarily represent those of the GCC.

X: @abuhamad1