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feat(phase5): epistemic confidence model#137

Merged
salishforge merged 1 commit into
main from
feat/phase5-epistemic-confidence
May 21, 2026
Merged

feat(phase5): epistemic confidence model #137
salishforge merged 1 commit into
main from
feat/phase5-epistemic-confidence

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@salishforge salishforge commented May 21, 2026

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Summary

Second of six PRs splitting #129. Ships Feature 1: Epistemic Confidence Model — calibrated uncertainty levels on warm-tier memories with auto-promotion via sleep cycle.

What lands

  • New columns on warm_tier: epistemic_status TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT 'provisional', evidence_count INTEGER NOT NULL DEFAULT 1, last_corroborated_at TIMESTAMPTZ. Index warm_tier_epistemic_idx on (agent_id, epistemic_status).
  • Sleep cycle Phase 5.12 (Epistemic Promotion) — runs in the run() loop after deprecated decay, before drift snapshot. Promotes provisional → established when both evidence_count >= 3 AND positive retrievals come from ≥2 distinct namespaces (cross-context corroboration required). Stamps last_corroborated_at. Does NOT touch contested rows.
  • Query filter: query({ epistemic: 'established' }) or array form filters retrieval by status.
  • REST endpoint: GET /memory/:agentId/epistemic returns per-status counts.
  • MCP tools: memforge_certainty (filtered query) and memforge_epistemic_profile (counts).
  • SDK: TypeScript + Python clients both gain epistemic query param and epistemicProfile() method.

Migration: schema/migration-v3.9.sql.

Notes

Part of the #129 split

Test plan

  • `npm run type-check` — clean
  • `npm run build` — clean
  • `npm run lint` — clean
  • `npm run test:epistemic-confidence` — 30/30 pass (7 unit + 12 integration + 5 e2e + 6 migration)
  • `npm audit --omit=dev` — 0 vulnerabilities
  • CI green on push

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

Calibrated uncertainty levels (established/provisional/contested/inferred)
on warm-tier memories with auto-promotion via new sleep cycle Phase 5.12.
New columns: epistemic_status, evidence_count, last_corroborated_at on
warm_tier. New endpoint GET /memory/:id/epistemic and MCP tools
memforge_certainty + memforge_epistemic_profile. Phase 5.12 promotes
provisional rows with evidence_count >= 3 and multi-namespace positive
retrievals to established, stamps last_corroborated_at, and demotes stale
established rows back to provisional. Epistemic filter on query() restricts
results to the desired confidence tier. TypeScript SDK, Python SDK,
tool-definitions, and OpenAPI spec updated.
Migration: schema/migration-v3.9.sql
Split from #129 (PR-B of 6).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@salishforge salishforge merged commit 8d2b16c into main May 21, 2026
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