This document outlines all team and judge scoring formulas used across the platform, and which files implement them.
results-statistics/
├── packages/database/prisma/
│ └── schema.prisma # Data models: TeamRanking, TeamTournamentResult, JudgeRanking, etc.
│
├── apps/web/src/
│ ├── utils/
│ │ ├── get-statistics.ts # CORE: Deflator, OTR aggregation, PWP, EWP, TWP, break %
│ │ ├── get-expected-wp.ts # CORE: Head-to-head expected win probability formula
│ │ ├── get-clutch-factor.ts # CORE: Clutch factor (upset/choke weighting)
│ │ └── get-percentile.ts # Percentile helper
│ │
│ ├── server/routers/
│ │ ├── team.ts # Team summary queries, circuit rankings (RANK() OVER otr DESC)
│ │ ├── dataset.ts # Leaderboards, school avg OTR, bid stats
│ │ ├── judge.ts # Judge summary, index rankings
│ │ ├── scraping.ts # Threats/strikes OTR-based analysis
│ │ └── landing-page.ts # Homepage OTR data
│ │
│ ├── components/charts/
│ │ ├── TeamCharts.tsx # OTR, PWP, TWP, prelim percentile visualizations
│ │ └── JudgeCharts.tsx # Judge index, speaks, side-bias charts
│ │
│ ├── components/tables/
│ │ ├── dataset/
│ │ │ ├── LeaderboardTable.tsx # Team OTR leaderboard
│ │ │ └── SchoolTable.tsx # School avg OTR rankings
│ │ └── radar/
│ │ ├── ThreatTable.tsx # OTR-based threat analysis
│ │ └── HeadToHeadRoundTable.tsx # Round-level head-to-head data
│ │
│ └── pages/
│ ├── teams/[id].tsx # Team detail page
│ ├── judges/[id].tsx # Judge detail page
│ ├── dataset.tsx # Leaderboard page
│ ├── x-ray/head-to-head.tsx # Expected win probability page
│ └── radar/threats.tsx # OTR histogram / threat scouting
│
└── apps/api/src/routes/v1/rankings/
├── team.router.ts # REST API for team rankings
└── judge.router.ts # REST API for judge rankings
OTR is the primary team rating metric. Each tournament produces an otrComp (OTR component) stored in team_tournament_results. The overall OTR is computed as:
OTR = deflator(n) ×ばつ mean(otrComp1, otrComp2, ..., otrCompn)
where n = number of tournaments attended.
Deflator (logistic growth curve):
deflator(n) = N / ((N/Y0 - 1) ×ばつ e^(-K ×ばつ n) + 1)
| Parameter | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| N | 1 | Asymptotic maximum (caps at 1.0) |
| Y0 | 0.15 | Initial value (15% at 0 tournaments) |
| K | 1.3 | Growth rate |
Effect: Teams with few tournaments have their OTR heavily discounted. After ~4-5 tournaments the deflator approaches 1.0.
Source: get-statistics.ts:44-52
PWP = prelimBallotsWon / (prelimBallotsWon + prelimBallotsLost)
Aggregated across all tournaments.
Source: get-statistics.ts:107
EWP = elimWins / (elimWins + elimLosses)
Aggregated across all tournaments.
Source: get-statistics.ts:108
TWP = (prelimBallotsWon + elimWins) / (totalPrelimBallots + totalElimBallots) + EWP ×ばつ 0.1
Capped at 1.0. The + EWP ×ばつ 0.1 bonus rewards teams that win in elimination rounds (harder opponents, higher stakes).
Source: get-statistics.ts:110-111
Break% = (# tournaments where team made elims) / (# tournaments with elim rounds)
Only counts tournaments that have elimination rounds.
Source: get-statistics.ts:81-89, 114
Average of per-tournament opWpM values. Measures strength of schedule — higher means the team faced tougher opponents.
Source: get-statistics.ts:117
Given two teams with OTR values and optionally a judge panel's average index:
EWP = (1.47 ×ばつ |ΔOTR|^0.8094 ×ばつ (1 / (4 ×ばつ avgOTR))) / (1 + 2^(-(judgeIndex - 6))) + 0.5
| Component | Meaning |
|---|---|
1.47 ×ばつ |ΔOTR|^0.8094 |
Non-linear impact of OTR gap (diminishing returns) |
1 / (4 ×ばつ avgOTR) |
Scales down when both teams are strong |
1 + 2^(-(judgeIndex - 6)) |
Judge quality adjustment (default index = 10) |
+ 0.5 |
Baseline: equal teams have 50% win probability |
Returns the probability that the higher-OTR team wins.
Source: get-expected-wp.ts
Measures performance under pressure relative to expectations:
ClutchFactor = (udWins ×ばつ udRounds ×ばつ 7 - udLosses ×ばつ udRounds ×ばつ 0.5
+ favWins ×ばつ favRounds ×ばつ 2 - favLosses ×ばつ favRounds ×ばつ 6)
/ ((favRounds + udRounds) ×ばつ 4)
| Scenario | Weight | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Underdog win (beat higher-OTR) | +7 | Highest reward — clutch performance |
| Favored win (beat lower-OTR) | +2 | Expected outcome, modest credit |
| Underdog loss (lost to higher-OTR) | −0.5 | Expected outcome, minimal penalty |
| Favored loss (lost to lower-OTR) | −6 | Choke — heavy penalty |
Output is clamped to [0, 10].
A team's rounds are classified as "favored" or "underdog" by comparing their OTR to their opponent's OTR.
Source: get-clutch-factor.ts
Percentile = 100 - (prelimPos / prelimPoolSize) ×ばつ 100
Per-tournament metric shown in charts.
Source: TeamCharts.tsx
Stored in judge_rankings.index. Analogous to team OTR but for judges. Judges are ranked by index per circuit/season. Associated per-tournament stats include:
- avgRawPoints / avgAdjPoints — average speaker points awarded
- stdDevPoints — consistency of point distribution
- numSquirrels — unexpected decisions
- numPrelimScrews — prelim judging errors
- Side bias — pro/aff vs con/neg vote frequency
Tabroom.com scraping
↓
TeamTournamentResult (otrComp, opWpM, prelim/elim records)
JudgeTournamentResult (points, squirrels, screws)
↓
team_rankings / judge_rankings (aggregated OTR / index per circuit+season)
↓
tRPC routers (team.ts, dataset.ts, judge.ts)
↓
Frontend pages + charts (TeamCharts, LeaderboardTable, HeadToHead, etc.)