What does it cost when you can't fulfill orders as submitted? This tool traces every dollar of fulfillment shortfall cost to a specific platform event — a shipment line where units ordered exceeded units shipped.
Cinderhaven Provisions is a fictional ~25ドルM specialty food brand. The dataset is synthetic. The methodology is real. Every figure regenerates from a single pipeline against the Cinderhaven Data Platform (Postgres).
Live: https://shortships.lailarallc.com
At a 92.7% portfolio fill rate, Cinderhaven loses 6ドル.6M over three years (2ドル.2M/yr) across four cost dimensions:
| Dimension | 3-Year | Annual | % of Shipped |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forgone revenue | 5ドル.5M | 1ドル.8M | 7.85% |
| Compliance fines | 369ドルK | 123ドルK | 0.52% |
| Chargebacks | 344ドルK | 115ドルK | 0.49% |
| Deductions | 331ドルK | 110ドルK | 0.47% |
Every dollar traces to a platform event. No modeled soft costs, no forward projections, no assumed admin time.
Forgone contribution margin — the actual profit impact — runs 958ドルK/yr, roughly 52% of the forgone revenue figure.
Costco generates 76% of all compliance fines (281ドルK of 369ドルK) because of its 250ドル flat fee per any-short PO. At 92% fill, 17% of Costco POs have at least one shorted line. Improving Costco fill from 92% to 95% is the single highest-return operational fix in the analysis.
The tool models what happens as fill rate improves:
| Target | Total Cost | Recovery | Recovery % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline (92.7%) | 6ドル.6M | — | — |
| 95% | 1ドル.2M | 5ドル.4M | 81.5% |
| 97% | 835ドルK | 5ドル.7M | 87.3% |
| 98% | 640ドルK | 5ドル.9M | 90.3% |
| 99% | 411ドルK | 6ドル.2M | 93.8% |
Moving from 92% to 95% fill recovers 81% of the total shortfall cost. Diminishing returns set in above 97%.
Consumes the Cinderhaven Data Platform directly:
fct_retailer_shipment_lines/fct_distributor_shipment_lines— units ordered vs shipped per lineraw.retailer_chargebacks/raw.distributor_chargebackswhere reason = 'short_ship'raw.retailer_deductions/raw.distributor_deductionswhere deduction_type = 'short_ship'raw.sku_costs— COGS for contribution margin calculation- Compliance fines modeled from published retailer schedules (Walmart 3% of COGS, Costco 250ドル flat, etc.)
50 SKUs, 5 product lines, 6 retailers, 3 distributors. Canonical
reference: CINDERHAVEN_CANONICAL.md.
- Frontend: React 19, Vite
- Charts: D3 / custom SVG
- Data pipeline: Python → JSON from platform Postgres
- Deployment: Cloudflare Workers
npm install npm run dev
To regenerate data from the platform:
python scripts/rebuild_from_platform.py
Requires a flyctl proxy to the Cinderhaven database.
This tool previously generated its own synthetic orders at a 69% fill rate, producing a 33ドル.1M cost figure across 8 dimensions. The plausibility audit found that figure was indefensible — three incompatible fulfillment realities coexisted in the portfolio. The rebuild replaced the synthetic engine with direct platform queries. 33ドルM became 6ドル.6M. Eight dimensions became four. Every dollar now has a receipt.
Built by Lailara LLC — data hygiene and analytics consulting for specialty food brands scaling into national retail.
MIT — see LICENSE.