Monte is a simple gem designed to help software engineers and developers answer the question 'When will it be done?'.
The tool uses the Monte Carlo method to provide a reasonable forecast of the future based on statistically relevant data from the past.
You must have ruby installed to use this tool.
start by installing the gem.
$ gem install monte
The following is the simplest version of Monte which should be used when you have little previous data with which to build your forecast.
$ monte carlo | \/ | ___ _ __ | |_ ___ | |\/| | / _ \ | '_ \ | __| / _ \ | | | | | (_) | | | | | | |_ | __/ |_| |_| \___/ |_| |_| \__| \___| Welcome to Monte, a tool to help you answer the question: 'When will the work be done?' Please answer the following questions How many tasks/tickets do you have left to complete? 40 Do you have a JIRA csv export to use? no Enter the smallest number of tasks/tickets you have finished in a week? 2 Enter the largest number of tasks/tickets you have finished in a week? 6 When will you start work (e.g. 28/04/2021) 2020年11月21日 How certain are you with regard to the scope of the work? high How many simulations would you like to run? 10000 ┌──────────────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────────┐ │Forecast Certainty│ 5% │ 15% │ 30% │ 50% │ 70% │ 85% │ 95% │ ├──────────────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────────┤ │ Forecast Date │2021年02月06日│2021年02月06日│2021年02月13日│2021年02月13日│2021年02月20日│2021年02月27日│2021年03月06日│ └──────────────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────────┘
Forecasting like this works better when you use real data from the past to model what the future will look like. To enable this Monte can use a JIRA export of tasks completed over whatever historic timeframe you would like. Once you have created your JQL filter ensure that you include the "Resolved" column and then export as a csv. When running the app you will be given the option to specify the path of the file and this will then build a distribution of previous throughputs for use in the simulations. The following is a runthrough using a test data file.
__ __ _ | \/ | ___ _ __ | |_ ___ | |\/| | / _ \ | '_ \ | __| / _ \ | | | | | (_) | | | | | | |_ | __/ |_| |_| \___/ |_| |_| \__| \___| Welcome to Monte, a tool to help you answer the question: 'When will the work be done?' Please answer the following questions How many tasks/tickets do you have left to complete? 40 Do you have a JIRA csv export to use? Yes what is the absolute file path to the csv file /Users/user/directory/monte/spec/test_data/data.csv When will you start work (e.g. 28/04/2021) 2020年11月21日 How certain are you with regard to the scope of the work? medium How many simulations would you like to run? 10000 ┌──────────────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────────┐ │Forecast Certainty│ 5% │ 15% │ 30% │ 50% │ 70% │ 85% │ 95% │ ├──────────────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────────┤ │ Forecast Date │2021年02月06日│2021年02月13日│2021年02月20日│2021年03月06日│2021年03月13日│2021年03月27日│2021年04月10日│ └──────────────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────────┘
After checking out the repo, run bin/setup to install dependencies. Then, run
rake spec to run the tests. You can also run bin/console for an interactive
prompt that will allow you to experiment.
To install this gem onto your local machine, run bundle exec rake install. To
release a new version, update the version number in version.rb, and then run
bundle exec rake release, which will create a git tag for the version, push
git commits and tags, and push the .gem file to
rubygems.org.
Copyright (c) 2020 Andrew Werner. See MIT License for further details.