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2028 Bavarian state election

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German state election
Next Bavarian state election
← 2023 2028 (2028)
All 203 seats in the Landtag of Bavaria (including 23 overhang and leveling seats)
102 seats needed for a majority
 
Party CSU FW AfD
Last election 85 seats, 37.0% 37 seats, 15.8% 32 seats, 14.6%
 
Party Greens SPD
Last election 32 seats, 14.4% 17 seats, 8.4%
Incumbent Government

Third Söder cabinet
CSU—FW



Elections to the Landtag of Bavaria will be held in 2028.

Electoral system

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The Landtag is elected using mixed-member proportional representation. Every voter has two votes, one for a candidate in their local constituency and one for a candidate in their regional district.[1] Both votes are taken into account in the allocation of seats according to proportional representation. The election law was changed in 2022 to use the Sainte-Laguë method.[2] There is no state-wide proportional representation; regional seats are allocated within the seven administrative districts, which are referred to as "constituencies" (Wahlkreise) in the constitution.[3] The regional seats are allocated in an open-list fashion, according to votes cast for candidates.

Only parties and electoral groups that win at least 5% of the total votes across Bavaria (sum of first and second votes, meaning party votes and local district contest votes) participate in the allocation of seats. The regional "constituencies" are divided into local "electoral districts" (Stimmkreise),[4] in each of which one MP is directly elected by getting plurality in the first (only) round.[5]

The number of local "electoral districts" (91) is about equal to the number of seats in the regional "constituencies" (89). In addition, 23 seats may be allocated as levelling seats or to compensate for overhang.

Backgroud

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In the 2023 Bavarian state elections, the CSU emerged once again as the leading party. The Free Voters and AfD saw significant increases in their voter support, securing the second and third positions, respectively.[6] Conversely, the Greens experienced a decline, losing nearly 3 percentage points, which relegated them to the fourth spot. The SPD, despite further vote losses, retained its position as the fifth strongest party. The FDP, with a decrease of 2 percentage points, failed to secure enough votes to re-enter the state parliament. Neither the ÖDP nor the Left Party managed to surpass the five percent threshold required for representation.

Following the election, the coalition between the CSU and the Free Voters was continued, forming the Cabinet Söder III.

Opinion polls

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Party polling

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Polling firm[7] Fieldwork date Sample size CSU FW AfD Grüne SPD FDP Linke BSW Others Lead
Civey 30 Jan – 13 Feb 2025 5,007 41 12 14 14 8 1 1 4 5 27
Civey 3–17 Jan 2025 5,011 43 12 14 14 7 1 1 3 5 29
Civey 28 Nov – 12 Dec 2024 5,001 42 12 14 12 7 3 1 4 5 28
Civey 1–15 Nov 2024 5,008 44 11 12 11 8 2 1 4 7 32
Civey 11–18 Oct 2024 5,001 42 12 14 11 7 – – – 14 28
INSA 7–14 Oct 2024 1,000 43 11 18 10 8 – – 5 5 25
GMS 11–16 Sep 2024 1,048 42 11 12 10 7 2 1 6 9 30
Civey 5–12 Sep 2024 5,002 42 13 15 12 7 2 1 – 8 27
Civey 9–16 Aug 2024 5,002 42 13 14 11 8 3 1 – 8 28
Forsa 22 Jul – 2 Aug 2024 1,036 43 12 13 11 8 2 – 4 7 30
Civey 11–18 Jul 2024 5,004 42 13 14 11 8 3 1 – 8 28
Civey 7–14 Jun 2024 5,004 41 13 14 13 8 3 1 – 7 27
European Parliament election 9 Jun 2024 6,324,011 39.7 6.8 12.6 11.8 8.9 3.9 1.4 3.8 11.1 27.1
Civey 3–10 May 2024 5,005 41 14 14 13 7 3 1 – 7 27
GMS 30 Apr – 6 May 2024 1,023 41 15 11 13 7 2 2 3 6 26
Civey 4–11 Apr 2024 5,002 42 14 13 13 7 – – – 11 28
Civey 8–15 Mar 2024 5,001 42 14 13 14 7 2 1 – 7 28
Civey 9–16 Feb 2024 5,001 40 13 14 14 8 – – – 11 26
GMS 31 Jan – 5 Feb 2024 1,018 42 15 13 12 6 2 1 3 6 27
Infratest dimap 11–15 Jan 2024 1,161 40 13 15 13 7 3 – – 9 25
Civey 4–11 Jan 2024 5,000 41 13 14 14 8 – – – 10 27
GMS 27 Dec – 2 Jan 2024 1,002 41 16 14 13 6 3 1 – 6 25
Civey 8–15 Dec 2023 4,999 41 13 14 14 8 – – – 10 27
Civey 10–17 Nov 2023 5,001 40 13 13 14 9 3 2 – 6 26
2023 state election 8 Oct 2023 – 37.0 15.8 14.6 14.4 8.4 3.0 1.5 – 5.3 21.2


References

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