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2012 New Hampshire gubernatorial election

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2012 New Hampshire gubernatorial election
← 2010 November 6, 2012 (2012年11月6日) 2014 →
 
Nominee Maggie Hassan Ovide Lamontagne
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 378,934 294,024
Percentage 54.61% 42.53%
County results
Municipality results
Congressional district results
Hassan:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      >90%
Lamontagne:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
     70–80%      80–90%
Tie:      40–50%
Governor before election

John Lynch
Democratic

Elected Governor

Maggie Hassan
Democratic

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The 2012 New Hampshire gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election, U.S. House elections, and various state and local elections.

Four-term incumbent governor John Lynch was eligible to seek a fifth term. In the fall of 2011, Lynch announced that he would retire rather than run for re-election.[1] On September 11, 2012, Democrat Maggie Hassan and Republican Ovide Lamontagne defeated primary opponents to win their parties' nominations.[2] [3] Hassan won the election while carrying every county in the state and began the two-year term on January 3, 2013.[4]

Democratic primary

[edit ]

Candidates

[edit ]

Declined

[edit ]

Polling

[edit ]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jackie
Cilley 		Maggie
Hassan 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling [14] August 9–12, 2012 400 ± 4.9% 24% 30% — 46%
Public Policy Polling [15] May 10–13, 2012 477 ± 4.5% 20% 23% — 57%

Results

[edit ]
Results by county:
  Hassan—60–70%
  Hassan—50–60%
  Hassan—40–50%
  Cilley—50–60%
  Cilley—40–50%
Democratic primary results[16]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Maggie Hassan 45,120 53.1
Democratic Jackie Cilley 33,066 38.9
Democratic Bill Kennedy 5,936 7.0
Democratic Other 850 1.0
Total votes 84,972 100

Republican primary

[edit ]

Candidates

[edit ]

Declined

[edit ]

Polling

[edit ]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ovide
Lamontagne 		Kevin
Smith 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling [14] August 9–12, 2012 662 ± 3.8% 49% 21% — 30%
Public Policy Polling [15] May 10–13, 2012 555 ± 4.2% 53% 13% — 34%
Public Policy Polling [27] January 7–8, 2012 1,771 ± 2.3% 40% 12% — 48%

Results

[edit ]
Results by county:
  Lamontagne—80–90%
  Lamontagne—60–70%
Republican primary results[28]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Ovide Lamontagne 73,437 67.7
Republican Kevin Smith 32,396 29.8
Republican Robert Tarr 1,725 1.6
Republican Other 988 0.9
Total votes 108,546 100

General election

[edit ]

Candidates

[edit ]
  • John Babiarz (Libertarian), businessman and party nominee for governor in 2000, 2002, and 2010 [29]
  • Maggie Hassan (D), former majority leader of the New Hampshire Senate
  • Ovide Lamontagne (R), attorney, Republican nominee for governor in 1996, and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010

Debates

[edit ]

Predictions

[edit ]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report [30] Tossup November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball [31] Lean D November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report [32] Tossup November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics [33] Lean D November 5, 2012

Polling

[edit ]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Maggie
Hassan (D) 		Ovide
Lamontagne (R) 		Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports [34] November 4, 2012 750 ± 4% 50% 45% 1% 4%
New England College [35] November 3–4, 2012 666 ± 4.1% 47% 45% 1% 7%
Public Policy Polling [36] November 3–4, 2012 1,550 ± 2.5% 51% 47% — 2%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire [37] November 1–4, 2012 789 ± 3.5% 54% 43% 3% —
WMUR/University of New Hampshire [38] October 31–November 2, 2012 502 ± 4.4% 47% 42% 3% 8%
NBC/WSJ/Marist [39] October 28–29, 2012 1013 ± 3.1% 49% 44% 1% 6%
Public Policy Polling [40] October 26–28, 2012 874 ± 3.3% 48% 44% — 8%
New England College [41] October 23–25, 2012 571 ± 4.1% 45% 45% 1% 9%
Rasmussen Reports [42] October 23, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 46% 48% 1% 5%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire [43] October 17–21, 2012 773 ± 3.5% 43% 35% 3% 18%
Public Policy Polling [44] October 17–19, 2012 1,036 ± 3.0% 45% 43% — 12%
Rasmussen Reports [45] October 15, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 46% 48% — 5%
Suffolk University/7NEWS [46] October 12–14, 2012 500 ± 4.4% 41% 38% 4% 16%
American Research Group [47] October 9–11, 2012 600 ± 4% 40% 46% 3% 11%
Rasmussen Reports [48] October 9, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 48% 46% — 5%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire [49] October 1–6, 2012 419 ± 4.8% 35% 39% 3% 23%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire [50] September 27–30, 2012 600 ± 4.0% 38% 36% 2% 25%
Public Policy Polling [51] September 24–25, 2012 862 ± 3.3% 51% 44% — 5%
NBC/The Wall Street Journal /Marist College [52] September 23–25, 2012 1012 ± 3.1% 47% 45% 1% 7%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner [53] September 15–19, 2012 600 ± 4.9% 48% 46% — 6%
Rasmussen Reports [54] September 18, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 44% 48% 2% 7%
Public Policy Polling [15] August 9–12, 2012 1,055 ± 3.0% 45% 43% — 12%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire [55] August 1–12, 2012 555 ± 4.2% 31% 33% 1% 35%
Rasmussen Reports [56] June 20, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 36% 42% — 22%
Public Policy Polling [15] May 10–13, 2012 1,163 ± 2.9% 39% 40% — 21%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire [57] April 9–20, 2012 486 ± 4.4% 34% 29% 1% 36%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire [58] January 25–February 2, 2012 495 ± 4.4% 26% 32% 1% 41%
Public Policy Polling [59] June 30–July 5, 2011 662 ± 3.8% 35% 41% — 24%
Hypothetical polling

With Cilley

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jackie
Cilley (D) 		Ovide
Lamontagne (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling [15] August 9–12, 2012 1,055 ± 3.0% 42% 42% — 16%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire [55] August 1–12, 2012 555 ± 4.2% 31% 35% 1% 33%
Rasmussen Reports [56] June 20, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 39% 41% — 20%
Public Policy Polling [15] May 10–13, 2012 1,163 ± 2.9% 38% 38% — 24%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire [57] April 9–20, 2012 486 ± 4.4% 31% 30% 1% 38%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jackie
Cilley (D) 		Kevin
Smith (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling [15] August 9–12, 2012 1,055 ± 3.0% 39% 38% — 23%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire [55] August 1–12, 2012 555 ± 4.2% 31% 28% 1% 39%
Rasmussen Reports [56] June 20, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 39% 37% — 24%
Public Policy Polling [15] May 10–13, 2012 1,163 ± 2.9% 37% 32% — 31%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire [57] April 9–20, 2012 486 ± 4.4% 30% 23% 1% 47%

With Smith

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Maggie
Hassan (D) 		Kevin
Smith (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling [15] August 9–12, 2012 1,055 ± 3.0% 42% 39% — 20%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire [55] August 1–12, 2012 555 ± 4.2% 31% 29% 1% 39%
Rasmussen Reports [56] June 20, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 36% 39% — 25%
Public Policy Polling [15] May 10–13, 2012 1,163 ± 2.9% 37% 31% — 32%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire [57] April 9–20, 2012 486 ± 4.4% 29% 24% 1% 46%

With Kennedy

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Bill
Kennedy (D) 		Ovide
Lamontagne (R) 		Other Undecided
WMUR/University of New Hampshire [55] August 1–12, 2012 555 ± 4.2% 29% 35% 1% 36%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Bill
Kennedy (D) 		Kevin
Smith (R) 		Other Undecided
WMUR/University of New Hampshire [55] August 1–12, 2012 555 ± 4.2% 27% 29% 1% 44%

With Bradley

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Mark
Connolly (D) 		Jeb
Bradley (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling [59] June 30-July 5, 2011 662 ± 3.8% 30% 38% — 31%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Maggie
Hassan (D) 		Jeb
Bradley (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling [59] June 30-July 5, 2011 662 ± 3.8% 33% 39% — 28%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Steve
Marchand (D) 		Jeb
Bradley (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling [59] June 30-July 5, 2011 662 ± 3.8% 32% 38% — 31%

With Connolly

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Mark
Connolly (D) 		Ovide
Lamontagne (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling [59] June 30-July 5, 2011 662 ± 3.8% 34% 40% — 26%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Mark
Connolly (D) 		John
Stephen (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling [59] June 30-July 5, 2011 662 ± 3.8% 36% 36% — 28%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Mark
Connolly (D) 		John E.
Sununu (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling [59] June 30-July 5, 2011 662 ± 3.8% 36% 44% — 20%

With Gatsas

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Maggie
Hassan (D) 		Ted
Gatsas (R) 		Other Undecided
WMUR/University of New Hampshire [58] January 25-February 2, 2012 495 ± 4.4% 27% 29% 1% 43%

With Lynch

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		John
Lynch (D) 		Jeb
Bradley (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling [59] June 30-July 5, 2011 662 ± 3.8% 54% 35% — 11%
Public Policy Polling [60] March 31-April 3, 2011 769 ± 3.5% 57% 33% — 10%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		John
Lynch (D) 		Ovide
Lamontagne (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling [59] June 30-July 5, 2011 662 ± 3.8% 54% 36% — 10%
Public Policy Polling [60] March 31-April 3, 2011 769 ± 3.5% 57% 33% — 10%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		John
Lynch (D) 		John
Stephen (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling [59] June 30-July 5, 2011 662 ± 3.8% 55% 34% — 11%
Public Policy Polling [60] March 31-April 3, 2011 769 ± 3.5% 57% 29% — 14%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		John
Lynch (D) 		John E.
Sununu (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling [59] June 30-July 5, 2011 662 ± 3.8% 51% 40% — 8%
Public Policy Polling [60] March 31-April 3, 2011 769 ± 3.5% 54% 36% — 11%

With Marchand

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Steve
Marchand (D) 		Ovide
Lamontagne (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling [59] June 30-July 5, 2011 662 ± 3.8% 33% 40% — 27%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Steve
Marchand (D) 		John
Stephen (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling [59] June 30-July 5, 2011 662 ± 3.8% 34% 36% — 30%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Steve
Marchand (D) 		John E.
Sununu (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling [59] June 30-July 5, 2011 662 ± 3.8% 35% 44% — 21%

With Stephen

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Maggie
Hassan (D) 		John
Stephen (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling [59] June 30-July 5, 2011 662 ± 3.8% 36% 37% — 27%

With Sununu

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Maggie
Hassan (D) 		John E.
Sununu (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling [59] June 30-July 5, 2011 662 ± 3.8% 36% 45% — 19%

Results

[edit ]
2012 New Hampshire gubernatorial election[61]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Maggie Hassan 378,934 54.61% +1.98%
Republican Ovide Lamontagne 295,026 42.52% −2.51%
Libertarian John J. Babiarz 19,251 2.77% +0.56%
Write-in 666 0.10% -0.02%
Total votes 693,877 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that swung from Republican to Democratic

[edit ]

By congressional district

[edit ]

Hassan won both congressional districts.[62]

District Hassan Lamontagne Representative
1st 52.98% 44.43% Carol Shea-Porter
2nd 56.38% 40.66% Annie Kuster

References

[edit ]
  1. ^ a b c Langley, Karen (September 16, 2011). "Lynch will not seek a fifth term". Concord Monitor . Retrieved May 20, 2012.
  2. ^ "2012 Election Information". New Hampshire Secretary of State. Retrieved May 20, 2012.
  3. ^ "Lamontagne, Hassan will face off in governor's race". Archived from the original on November 29, 2014. Retrieved September 11, 2012.
  4. ^ New Hampshire
  5. ^ Hall, Beth LaMontagne (February 7, 2012). "Former state Sen. Cilley enters race for governor". New Hampshire Union Leader . Archived from the original on December 14, 2014. Retrieved February 9, 2012.
  6. ^ Marchocki, Kathryn (October 25, 2011). "Former Senate Majority Leader Maggie Hassan makes gubernatorial bid official". New Hampshire Union Leader . Archived from the original on April 5, 2012. Retrieved May 20, 2012.
  7. ^ Claffey, Jason (April 4, 2012). "Democratic Field for Governor to Expand". Exeter, NH Patch . Retrieved April 28, 2012.
  8. ^ Timmins, Annmarie (April 5, 2012). "Political newcomer to run for governor". Concord Monitor . Retrieved April 28, 2012.
  9. ^ Landrigan, Kevin (February 11, 2012). "Mark Connolly, financial whistle-blower, won't run for governor". Nashua Telegraph . Retrieved February 13, 2012.
  10. ^ Ireland, Doug (January 13, 2012). "Stonyfield CEO steps down". The Eagle-Tribune . Retrieved May 20, 2012.
  11. ^ Cresta, Joey (December 21, 2011). "Ex-Mayor accepts UNH job, ending political rumblings". The Portsmouth Herald . Archived from the original on March 7, 2012. Retrieved May 20, 2012.
  12. ^ "McLaughlin won't run for governor". The Laconia Daily Sun . January 26, 2012. Retrieved May 20, 2012.
  13. ^ Pindell, James (February 7, 2012). "EXCLUSIVE: Shumaker Will Not Run For Governor". WMUR-TV Political Scoop. Archived from the original on February 8, 2012. Retrieved April 3, 2012.
  14. ^ a b Public Policy Polling
  15. ^ a b c d e f g h i j Public Policy Polling
  16. ^ "2012 Governor - Democratic Primary". New Hampshire Secretary of State . Archived from the original on October 3, 2012. Retrieved September 24, 2012.
  17. ^ Houghton, Kimberly (September 19, 2011). "Ovide Lamontagne makes candidacy for governor official". New Hampshire Union Leader . Archived from the original on April 5, 2012. Retrieved September 19, 2011.
  18. ^ DiStaso, John (November 16, 2011). "Conservative Kevin Smith says 'I'm in' for governor". New Hampshire Union Leader . Archived from the original on January 28, 2012. Retrieved November 16, 2011.
  19. ^ "In NH, a big election year by the numbers, too". Nashua Telegraph . June 20, 2012. Retrieved August 10, 2012.
  20. ^ Curtis, Danielle (May 17, 2012). "Binnie won't enter governor race". Nashua Telegraph . Retrieved May 17, 2012.
  21. ^ Pindell, James (January 26, 2012). "Bradley Won't Run For Governor". WMUR-TV Political Scoop. Archived from the original on March 29, 2012. Retrieved May 20, 2012.
  22. ^ Cleveland, Kathy (September 22, 2011). "Sen. Peter Bragdon rules out run for governor in 2012". Milford Cabinet . Archived from the original on March 5, 2016. Retrieved May 20, 2012.
  23. ^ Landrigan, Kevin (March 8, 2012). "Manchester mayor Gatsas bows out of race for governor". Nashua Telegraph . Retrieved March 12, 2012.
  24. ^ Landrigan, Kevin (March 31, 2012). "Kenda rules out run for governor". Nashua Telegraph . Retrieved April 3, 2012.
  25. ^ Pindell, James (February 13, 2012). "EXCLUSIVE: NH Education Board Chair Not Running For Governor". Political Scoop. Archived from the original on May 15, 2012. Retrieved February 14, 2012.
  26. ^ Landrigan, Kevin (February 13, 2012). "Stephen, 2010 GOP governor nominee, will not run again". Nashua Telegraph . Retrieved February 13, 2012.
  27. ^ Public Policy Polling
  28. ^ "2012 Governor - Republican Primary". New Hampshire Secretary of State . Retrieved September 24, 2012.
  29. ^ Schinella, Tony (June 12, 2012). "VIDEO: Babiarz Running for Governor". Amherst, NH Patch . Archived from the original on June 22, 2012. Retrieved August 10, 2012.
  30. ^ "2012 Governor Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
  31. ^ "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on December 1, 2018. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
  32. ^ "2012 Gubernatorial Ratings". Gubernatorial Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
  33. ^ "2012 Elections Map - 2012 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
  34. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  35. ^ New England College
  36. ^ Public Policy Polling
  37. ^ WMUR/University of New Hampshire
  38. ^ WMUR/University of New Hampshire
  39. ^ NBC/WSJ/Marist
  40. ^ Public Policy Polling
  41. ^ New England College
  42. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  43. ^ WMUR/University of New Hampshire
  44. ^ Public Policy Polling
  45. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  46. ^ Suffolk University/7NEWS Archived 2012年10月17日 at the Wayback Machine
  47. ^ American Research Group
  48. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  49. ^ WMUR/University of New Hampshire
  50. ^ WMUR/University of New Hampshire
  51. ^ Public Policy Polling
  52. ^ NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist College
  53. ^ Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Archived 2012年09月27日 at the Wayback Machine
  54. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  55. ^ a b c d e f WMUR/University of New Hampshire
  56. ^ a b c d Rasmussen Reports
  57. ^ a b c d WMUR/University of New Hampshire
  58. ^ a b WMUR/University of New Hampshire
  59. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p Public Policy Polling
  60. ^ a b c d Public Policy Polling
  61. ^ "Governor - 2012 General Election - NHSOS". Archived from the original on August 4, 2020. Retrieved January 13, 2019.
  62. ^ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
[edit ]

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