Simple SIR simulator for tracking you-know-what
- Python 100%
| README.md | Initial commit | |
| sir.py | Plot the gradient of log dead as well | |
This is a SIR model with default parameters set to best guesses for the 2020 Covid-19 outbreak, that can be used to estimate roughly where a country might be on its way to herd immunity based on reported numbers of deaths and daily antigen tests (where available). At the time of writing nobody has done any antibody tests.
It differs a bit from a regular SIR model in that we don't use 'gamma' for a recovery rate. Instead recovery and death are modelled as delay buffers-- after being infected you go into one or other of those buffers and join the "recovered" or "dead" compartments some constant number of days later.
It outputs data files of various interesting things and a gnuplot and bash script to plot and display them.