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Ministry of Finance> Policy Research Institute> Statistics> Business Outlook Survey>January-March 2016

Business Outlook Survey

(January-March 2016)

Mar. 11, 2016

1. Business conditions

Business survey index
(Difference of "up"-"down" compared with previous quarter)

(%points)

		Oct.-Dec. 2015 (previous)	Jan.-Mar. 2016 (present)	Apr.-Jun. 2016 (outlook)	Jul.-Sep. 2016 (outlook)

Corporations with capital of 1 billion yen or over
	All industries	4.6	-3.2	-2.2	5.6
	Manufacturing	3.8	-7.9	-3.5	7.1
	Non-manufacturing	5.0	-0.7	-1.5	4.8
Corporations with capital of 100 million to 1 billion yen
	All industries	3.5	-2.8	-3.5	5.9
	Manufacturing	1.1	-8.6	-3.8	7.5
	Non-manufacturing	4.2	-1.0	-3.3	5.4
Corporations with capital of 10 to 100 million yen
	All industries	-7.7	-16.6	-6.8	-2.7
	Manufacturing	-6.6	-19.3	-6.1	-4.1
	Non-manufacturing	-7.9	-16.1	-6.9	-2.4

2. Domestic economic conditions

Business survey index
(Difference of "up"-"down" compared with previous quarter)

(%points)

		Oct.-Dec. 2015 (previous)	Jan.-Mar. 2016 (present)	Apr.-Jun. 2016 (outlook)	Jul.-Sep. 2016 (outlook)

Corporations with capital of 1 billion yen or over
	All industries	5.6	-9.8	-1.2	4.1
	Manufacturing	4.6	-12.0	-2.0	5.4
	Non-manufacturing	6.1	-8.6	-0.8	3.4
Corporations with capital of 100 million to 1 billion yen
	All industries	3.9	-12.1	-4.6	1.4
	Manufacturing	-0.7	-14.9	-6.1	3.7
	Non-manufacturing	5.4	-11.2	-4.2	0.6
Corporations with capital of 10 to 100 million yen
	All industries	-8.3	-21.7	-11.1	-6.7
	Manufacturing	-7.8	-28.4	-11.5	-8.7
	Non-manufacturing	-8.4	-20.4	-11.0	-6.3

3. Employment

Business survey index
(Difference of "insufficient"-"excessive" )

(%points)

		End of Dec. 2015 (previous)	End of Mar. 2016 (present)	End of Jun. 2016 (outlook)	End of Sep. 2016 (outlook)

Corporations with capital of 1 billion yen or over
	All industries	13.3	14.3	8.2	7.5
	Manufacturing	6.4	7.3	2.9	3.2
	Non-manufacturing	17.0	18.0	11.0	9.8
Corporations with capital of 100 million to 1 billion yen
	All industries	23.2	25.0	15.6	14.5
	Manufacturing	15.8	16.2	6.4	6.1
	Non-manufacturing	25.6	27.8	18.6	17.2
Corporations with capital of 10 to 100 million yen
	All industries	19.0	19.7	12.4	11.9
	Manufacturing	14.4	17.0	8.9	8.2
	Non-manufacturing	19.9	20.2	13.1	12.6

4. Sales (compared with the previous year)

(%)

FY 2015	1st half FY 2015	2nd half FY 2015	FY 2016	1st half FY 2016	2nd half FY 2016
All industries	-0.4	1.1	-1.8	0.1	-0.6	0.7
Manufacturing	-0.3	1.2	-1.8	0.3	-0.5	1.1
Non-manufacturing	-0.4	1.0	-1.8	-0.0	-0.6	0.5

FY 2015

1st half

FY 2015

2nd half

FY 2015

FY 2016

1st half

FY 2016

2nd half

FY 2016

All industries

-0.4

1.1

-1.8

0.1

-0.6

0.7

Manufacturing

-0.3

1.2

-1.8

0.3

-0.5

1.1

Non-manufacturing

-0.4

1.0

-1.8

-0.0

-0.6

0.5

5. Ordinary profits (compared with the previous year)

(%)

FY 2015	1st half FY 2015	2nd half FY 2015	FY 2016	1st half FY 2016	2nd half FY 2016
All industries	4.8	14.6	-4.3	-2.4	-10.1	5.9
Manufacturing	0.7	16.5	-13.6	0.4	-10.9	13.5
Non-manufacturing	6.8	13.8	0.2	-3.3	-9.8	3.3

FY 2015

1st half

FY 2015

2nd half

FY 2015

FY 2016

1st half

FY 2016

2nd half

FY 2016

All industries

4.8

14.6

-4.3

-2.4

-10.1

5.9

Manufacturing

0.7

16.5

-13.6

0.4

-10.9

13.5

Non-manufacturing

6.8

13.8

0.2

-3.3

-9.8

3.3

6. Software and investment in plant and equipment (compared with the previous year)

(%)

FY 2015	1st half FY 2015	2nd half FY 2015	FY 2016	1st half FY 2016	2nd half FY 2016
All industries	8.8	11.3	6.8	-6.6	3.5	-15.0
Manufacturing	11.1	13.5	9.3	1.7	15.0	-9.7
Non-manufacturing	7.6	10.2	5.5	-11.3	-3.1	-17.9

FY 2015

1st half

FY 2015

2nd half

FY 2015

FY 2016

1st half

FY 2016

2nd half

FY 2016

All industries

8.8

11.3

6.8

-6.6

3.5

-15.0

Manufacturing

11.1

13.5

9.3

1.7

15.0

-9.7

Non-manufacturing

7.6

10.2

5.5

-11.3

-3.1

-17.9

Note: Excludes expense purchasing land.

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