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Ministry of Finance Japan

Policy Research Institute

Ministry of Finance
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Business Outlook Survey

(April-June 2004)

1.Business conditions

business survey index
(Difference of "up"-"down" compared with previous quarter)

(percent point)

Apr.-Jun.
2004
(present)

Jul.-Sept.
2004
(outlook)

Oct.-Dec.
2004
(outlook)

Corporations with capital of 1 billion yen or over
All industry

7.2

12.2

12.9

Manufacturing

8.9

13.4

13.5

Non-manufacturing

6.1

11.4

12.5

Corporations with capital of 100 million to 1 billion yen
All industry

-2.4

8.4

12.7

Manufacturing

4.4

13.3

16.2

Non-manufacturing

-4.5

6.9

11.7

Corporations with capital of 10 to 100 million yen
All industry

-23.1

-13.6

-4.5

Manufacturing

-16.4

-12.8

-0.9

Non-manufacturing

-24.6

-13.8

-5.3

 

2.Domestic economic conditions

business survey index
(Difference of "up"-"down" compared with previous quarter)

(percent point)

Apr.-Jun.
2004
(present)

Jul.-Sept.
2004
(outlook)

Oct.-Dec.
2004
(outlook)

Corporations with capital of 1 billion yen or over
All industry

25.3

19.9

13.9

Manufacturing

25.2

19.8

12.1

Non-manufacturing

25.5

19.9

15.0

Corporations with capital of 100 million to 1 billion yen
All industry

19.4

16.3

15.5

Manufacturing

23.4

17.2

17.1

Non-manufacturing

18.1

16.0

15.0

Corporations with capital of 10 to 100 million yen
All industry

-9.4

-5.2

0.2

Manufacturing

-0.8

-3.8

1.7

Non-manufacturing

-11.2

-5.5

-0.1

 

3.Sales(compared with the previous year)

(percent)

FY 2004

1st half FY 2004

2nd half FY 2004

All industry

1.2

1.2

1.2

Manufacturing

3.5

5.8

1.4

Non-manufacturing

0.2

-0.8

1.1

 

4.Current profits (compared with the previous year)

(percent)

2nd half FY 2004

FY 2004

1st half FY 2004

All industry

9.7

8.0

11.2

Manufacturing

11.7

12.1

11.4

Non-manufacturing

8.7

5.8

11.1

 

5.Investment in plant and equipment (compared with the previous year)

(percent)

FY 2004

1st half FY 2004

2nd half FY 2004

All industry

6.4

11.4

2.0

Manufacturing

19.8

33.3

8.4

Non-manufacturing

0.3

1.7

-1.1

 

6.Employment

business survey index
(Difference of "insufficient"-"excessive" compared with previous quarter)

(percent point)

Apr.-Jun.
2004
(present)

Jul.-Sept.
2004
(outlook)

Oct.-Dec.
2004
(outlook)

Corporations with capital of 1 billion yen or over
All industry

3.4

3.1

3.5

Manufacturing

-0.0

-0.5

-0.6

Non-manufacturing

5.5

5.2

6.0

Corporations with capital of 100 million to 1 billion yen
All industry

6.0

5.5

6.5

Manufacturing

1.4

2.4

5.4

Non-manufacturing

7.4

6.5

6.9

Corporations with capital of 10 to 100 million yen
All industry

4.3

5.2

7.6

Manufacturing

8.9

7.2

6.3

Non-manufacturing

3.3

4.7

7.9


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and do not necessarily represent the views of the Policy Research Institute
Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance

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