GHG Emissions Reduction Targets
for International Shipping
Maritime Bureau,
Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism,
Japan
参考資料 1
UNFCCC2015Adoption2020Submission of NDC*
by each party2023Global
Stocktake*
*NDC: Nationally determined contribution *Global stocktake:
review process every 5 years
Submitted NDCs
EU △しろさんかく40% by 2030 China △しろさんかく65%/GDP by 2030
Japan △しろさんかく26% by 2030 India △しろさんかく35%/GDP by 2030
Canada △しろさんかく30% by 2030 Brazil △しろさんかく43% by 2030
~2100GHGBalance*
*GHG balance:
anthropogenic emissions = removals
Adopted the Paris Agreement in 2015
Long-term goal
• Below 2°C above pre-industrial
• Pursuing efforts to limit 1.5°C1 International aviation sector2010CO2(Mt)
• 2% (efficiency) every year
• Maintain below 2020 level (volume)
2020 2030 2040
BiofuelsMBMs2020 level
Global targets
Adopted global GHG reduction targets and
measures including MBM in 20132 International shipping
International shipping needs GHG reduction target
• EEDI for new ships (2013-)
• SEEMP for new & existing ships (2013-)
• Data collection system for new & existing ships (2019-)
IMO’s approach
Yet, no GHG reduction target in international shipping
Could be regarded as a "loophole"
IMO should show its commitment to the world3 Setting the targets for International Shipping
Operation;
Design & retrofitting; and
Alternative fuels.
Paris agreement
• well below ᇞ2°C
• pursuing efforts ᇞ1.5 °C
Level of contribution
to climate change
Maximum achievable level
of GHG reduction
satisfying both requirements
Global GHG reduction targets
with the highest possible ambition
Targets should be ambitious, but achievable4 GHG reduction
Short- to Mid-term Target (-2030)5 Short- to mid-term goal (Japan’s proposal)
Reduction target for shipping sector
should be based on efficiency
[GHG emission] = [transport volume] ×ばつ [efficiency]
Can be improved by the
effort of the maritime sector
Out of control for
the maritime sector6 Short- to mid-term goal (Japan’s proposal)
Short- to mid-term goal: △しろさんかく40% (efficiency) by 203070200400600800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030CO2
emissionsMtTarget emissoin level
(Japan's scenario)
△しろさんかく40%
(efficiency)
Base year (2008)
Contributions by EEDI upgraded new ships: △しろさんかく17% (efficiency)
New ships80200400600800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030CO2
emissionsMtPre-EEDI
2013 2015 2020 2025
△しろさんかく17%
New ships
LNG-fueled ships
Air lubrication Energy recovery
Hull & propulsion
improvement
Continuous R&Ds necessary to meet EEDI upgrades
Wind power9 Existing ships
Retrofitting + Maintenance + Operation: △しろさんかく28% (efficiency)100200400600800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030CO2emissionsMtTarget emissoin level
(Japan's scenario)
△しろさんかく28%
Operational measures
Maintenance and monitoring
Propulsion system upgrade
Retrofitting & Maintenance
Existing ships
Speed reduction Weather routing
Costly and limited options
Potential without substantial investments11 Optimum speed
reduction
SpeedCO2/tonne-mile
Optimum speed
Design speed
Existing ships
Speed reduction has potential, but has limit
Design speed
Constraints
Social impact
Fleet increase
Safety
Other environmental risk12 Summary (-2030)
In the short- to mid-term,
40% (efficiency) is challenging,
but achievable in 2030.
• ᇞ40% = EEDI (design & LNG) + retrofitting + maintenance + operation13 GHG reduction
Long-term Target (-2060)14 Long-term goal (Japan’s proposal)
Long-term goal by 2060: △しろさんかく90% (efficiency) (=△しろさんかく50% (volume))1505001,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060CO2
emissionsMtBase year (2008)
2008 level
ᇞ50% (volume)
over 2008
ᇞ90% (efficiency)
over 2008 0500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060CO2
emissionsMtBase year (2008)
Alternative fuels
(e.g. Hydrogen, biofuels)
2008 level
New alternative fuels
ᇞ82%
Not achievable by conventional approaches (technical & operational)
Drastic fuel shifts are necessary
- over-80% carbon-reduced fuels
(zero-carbon fuel available?)16 Challenges
R&D
Safety & risk assessments
Legal frameworks
Supply chain
Land infrastructure
Fleet replacement
FossilfuelNew fuel
Carbon intensity
of the fuels
ᇞ82%
New fuels involve challenges
New alternative fuels17 Long-termgoal2030 20602018R&Ds
Developing
legal frameworks
Safety & risk assessments
Developing supply chain
& land infrastructure
Fleet replacement
Preparatory stage
(by 2030)
Implementation stage
(2030-2060)
New alternative fuels
Years are needed for fuel shift
Design, contract, building, delivery18 In principle, reduction target for shipping sector should be
based on efficiency.
But volume target would be appropriate for the long term.
Because
90% efficiency reduction target is not achievable by
conventional approaches by the shipping sector;
mostly depends on readiness of alternative fuel; and
volume target can show the level of contribution to the
global GHG reduction.
Long-term target could be based on volume
Long-term goal (Japan’s proposal)19 Summary (-2060)
In the long-term
50% (volume) is challenging,
but achievable in 2060.
• ᇞ50% = technology + regulation + infrastructure + fleet replacement
Fuel shift20 0200400600800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060MtCO2-eqAvoided fossil fuel demand
Average capacity growth
High efficiency: new ships
High efficiency: retrofits
Wind assistance
Advanced biofuels
IEA Energy Technology Perspective 2017
Source: International Energy Agency (2017), Energy Technology Perspectives 2017, OECD/IEA, Paris
Shipping, 2DS/B2DS2DSB2DS
• 2-Degree Scenario (2DS)
• Beyond 2-Degree Scenario (B2DS)21 0200400600800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060MtCO2-eqAvoided fossil fuel demand
Average capacity growth
High efficiency: new ships
High efficiency: retrofits
Wind assistance
Advanced biofuels
IEA Energy Technology Perspective 2017
Shipping, 2DS/B2DS2DSB2DS
Japan’s proposal
ᇞ50% (volume) by 2060
50% (volume) by 2060 is within the range of below 2°C goal
• 2-Degree Scenario (2DS)
• Beyond 2-Degree Scenario (B2DS)22Source: International Energy Agency (2017), Energy Technology Perspectives 2017, OECD/IEA, Paris
Summary
Global GHG reduction target
with the highest possible ambition
1. Short- to mid-term target
• 40% (efficiency) by 2030 (over 2008)
2. Long-term target
• 50% (volume) by 2060 (over 2008)23 Emission scenarios (Japan’s proposal)2405001,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080CO2
emissionsMtBase year (2008)
Short- to mid-term
target year (2030)
Long-term
target year (2060)
2080 2090 2100
50% emissions
reduction from 2008
Decarbonization?
Years needed for fleet replacement
3,561Mt
(△しろさんかく90%)
efficiency
648Mt
(△しろさんかく40%)
efficiency
Development of new technologies, regulations
and infrastructure for new alternative fuels
2008 level
Emission scenarios (proposals to ISWG-GHG 2)25050010001500200025003000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080CO2
emissionsMtBase year (2008) Target year 3
(2060)
2080 2090 2100
Target year 1
(2030)
Target year 2
(2050)
ICS et al (1)
2008 level (volume)
Japan
△しろさんかく40% (efficiency) by 2030
Marshall et al
Zero emission by 2035
Belgium et al
△しろさんかく70% (volume) and
△しろさんかく90% (efficiency) by 2050
Japan
△しろさんかく50% (volume) by 2060
ICS et al (2)
△しろさんかく50% (efficiency) by 2050
ICS et al scenario (1)De-carboni
zation
Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism
Thank you.