Improvement of Weather and Climate Prediction
Strategic Goal2
Research Director:Hiroyasu Hasumi (JAMSTEC)
Research Director : Hiroyasu Hasumi (JAMSTEC)
For Accurate Weather and Climate Prediction
The Arctic environment is undergoing rapid change amidst global warming. This impact is spreading outside the Arctic, leading to an increase in extreme events in mid-latitude areas.
The need for accurate weather and climate prediction is growing, including for adaptation to environmental changes in the Arctic, to prepare for disasters caused by extreme events outside the Arctic region, and to evaluate the economic benefits of Arctic utilization and development.
Additionally, obtaining a perspective regarding the potential of long-term, irreversible climate changes caused by shifts in the Arctic environment is essential in order to consider the future of the global environment and human society.
To respond to these needs, it is firstly necessary to scientifically elucidate how the Arctic environment formation came to be as it is today as well as its change mechanisms, and to study how these are related to weather and climate in regions outside the Arctic.
Secondly, in addition to developing numerical models to express the related processes in precise detail, we need to use these numeric climate models to develop methods for predicting weather and climate-related phenomena on a range of time scales, as well as organize the relevant data.
In our research to elucidate the mechanisms of climate change related to the Arctic region and its prediction, the key requirement at the present stage is to maintain a clear awareness of how these scientific findings can be applied to disaster prevention and adaptation on a range of time scales, and to link these to new prediction methods and new means to provide forecast information.
Waves propagated under sea ice (photo), and the results of wave simulation in the Arctic Ocean in summer (figure)
Waves propagated under sea ice (photo), and the results of wave simulation in the Arctic Ocean in summer (figure)
Photo/Figure: Takehiko Nose (The University of Tokyo)
From Extreme Weather to Global Warming
In Strategic Goal 2, we will elucidate the remote connection of weather and climate and assess their predictability with a view toward improving weather and climate prediction.
Specifically,
We will identify the mechanisms behind the occurrence of Arctic-derived extreme events in and outside the Arctic region, and present practical indicators of their occurrence as well as a future perspective under the progression of global warming.
By improving the expression of Arctic climate processes, we will contribute to the sophistication of numerical climate models, and link this to improved weather and climate prediction in both the Arctic region and globally, on time scales ranging from day-to-day to multi-year, as well as expanding our ability to forecast over a longer period.
We will elucidate the progression of warming in the Arctic region as well as the mechanisms behind warming amplification, and deepen our understanding of resulting climate change over a time scale of longer than several decades.
Towards Adaptation to Climate Change
The distinctive feature of Strategic Goal 2 is that we aim to achieve more reliable weather and climate prediction, over a greater time span than previously. This will allow us to assess the current state and analyze the causes of ongoing climate change in the Arctic region and associated extreme events, helping us to obtain a clearer picture of the future perspective. By providing data on environmental changes to local residents and governments in the Arctic region, we will contribute to the formulation of climate change adaptation measures.
Additionally, assessing the current state and analyzing the causes of Arctic-derived climate change and extreme events in the mid-latitude regions, especially Japan, will allow us to present information related to daily weather forecasts, short-to-mid-term climate prediction and the long-term climate change perspective with a higher level of reliability than in the past. This will allow Japan to prepare practical disaster preparation and adaptation measures against Arctic-derived extreme events, and we hope that these findings will help deepen understanding of the impact of the Arctic region on Japan’s weather and climate among the country’s citizens.