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doi: 10.1265/ehpm.22-00267.

Mathematical model estimation of dengue fever transmission risk from Southeast and South Asia into Japan between 2016 and 2018

Affiliations

Mathematical model estimation of dengue fever transmission risk from Southeast and South Asia into Japan between 2016 and 2018

Ken Sakamoto et al. Environ Health Prev Med. 2023.

Abstract

Background: Dengue fever is a viral infection transmitted to humans through the bite of a mosquito infected with the dengue virus. Dengue is one of the most common infectious diseases in the world, and its incidence is rapidly increasing. We estimated the risk of dengue importation from endemic countries to Japan and the transmission risk within Japan using data collected between 2016 and 2018.

Methods: We conducted simulations that included the number of reported dengue infections and travelers per month in ten countries in Southeast and South Asia.

Results: The estimated importation risks for Japanese returnees and international travelers from each of the ten endemic countries was approximately 1.0 every month from 2016 to 2018. The autochthonous transmission risk in Japan from any target country was 1.0 from June to September yearly. The estimated number of Japanese dengue cases returning to Japan is approximately 25 times higher than that of imported cases reported in Japan.

Conclusions: The risk of dengue importation into Japan can be sufficiently high. Attention should be paid to autochthonous transmission spread between June and September when mosquitoes are active in Japan. Estimates of seasonal risk variation from each dengue virus-endemic country can be used to inform preventive and control measures for dengue in Japan.

Keywords: Autochthonous; Dengue; Importation; Japan; Mathematical model.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Total travelers between Japan and ten SEA/SA countries, 2016–2018.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Dengue importation risk into Japan (PIMPORT). The distribution for each month is shown as a box plot.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Dengue autochthonous transmission risk in Japan (PAUTO). The solid line for each country is the median and the dashed lines represent the 95% DI.
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Estimated number of Japanese dengue cases (symptomatic) and the actual number of imported cases reported. The solid line for each country is the median and the dashed lines represent the 95% DI. Vertical bars indicate the imported cases reported in Japan.
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Annual risk of dengue infections estimated in this study and values calculated from seroprevalence rates. The distribution for each year is shown as a box plot. The cross mark in each boxplot indicates the mean value.

References

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