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. 2022 Jun 30;16(6):e0010494.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0010494. eCollection 2022 Jun.

Accessibility to rabies centers and human rabies post-exposure prophylaxis rates in Cambodia: A Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis to identify optimal locations for future centers

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Accessibility to rabies centers and human rabies post-exposure prophylaxis rates in Cambodia: A Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis to identify optimal locations for future centers

Jerome N Baron et al. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. .

Abstract

Rabies is endemic in Cambodia. For exposed humans, post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) is very effective in preventing this otherwise fatal disease. The Institut Pasteur du Cambodge (IPC) in Phnom Penh was the primary distributor of PEP in Cambodia until 2018. Since then, and to increase distribution of PEP, two new centers have been opened by IPC in the provinces of Battambang and Kampong Cham. Data on bitten patients, who sometimes bring the head of the biting animal for rabies analyses, have been recorded by IPC since 2000. However, human cases are not routinely recorded in Cambodia, making it difficult to establish a human burden of disease and generate a risk map of dog bites to inform the selection of future PEP center locations in high-risk areas. Our aim was to assess the impact of accessibility to rabies centers on the yearly rate of PEP patients in the population and generate a risk map to identify the locations where new centers would be the most beneficial to the Cambodian population. To accomplish this, we used spatio-temporal Bayesian regression models with the number of PEP patients as the outcome. The primary exposure variable considered was travel time to the nearest IPC center. Secondary exposure variables consisted of travel time to a provincial capital and urban proportion of the population. Between 2000 and 2016, a total of 293,955 PEP patient records were identified. Our results showed a significant negative association between travel time to IPC and the rate of PEP patients: an increase in one hour travel time from the living location to IPC PEP centers leads to a reduction in PEP rate of 70% to 80%. Five provinces were identified as the most efficient locations for future centers to maximize PEP accessibility: Banteay Meanchey, Siem Reap, Takeo, Kampot and Svay Rieng. Adding a PEP center in every provincial capital would increase the proportion of Cambodians living within 60 minutes of a PEP center from 26.6% to 64.9%, and living within 120 minutes from 52.8% to 93.3%, which could save hundreds of lives annually.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Fig 1
Fig 1. Observed number and rates of PEP in Cambodia from 2000 to 2016.
Red curves represent rates per 10,000 people and histogram bars represent absolute numbers.
Fig 2
Fig 2. Time series of PEP patients numbers and rates by province.
Red curves represent rates per 10,000 people and histogram bars represent absolute numbers.
Fig 3
Fig 3. Observed average rates of PEP patients per district for the years 2013 to 2016.
The inlet focuses on the provinces of Kandal and Phnom Penh where the majority of PEP patients at IPC come from. Bold lines represent provincial boundaries. Base map can be found at [45]. https://data.humdata.org/dataset/cambodia-admin-level-0-international-boundaries. Details for the corresponding license can be found at: https://data.humdata.org/faqs/licenses.
Fig 4
Fig 4. Predictions of the rate of PEP patients in the population for the year 2017 based on three scenarios.
(A) Scenario 1 represents the situation prior to the opening of new centers in Battambang and Kampong Cham provinces with a single center in Phnom Penh. (B) Scenario 2 represents the current situation, with the opening of two new centers in Battambang and Kampong Cham provinces that actually opened in 2018 and 2019 respectively, bringing the total number of centers to three. (C & D) Scenario 3 and 4 represens the theoretical opening of a center in every provincial capital and district capital respectively. Blue dots represent currently existing centers as of 2020, green dots represent provincial or district capitals where future centers could be opened. Base map can be found at [45]. https://data.humdata.org/dataset/cambodia-admin-level-0-international-boundaries. Details for the corresponding license can be found at: https://data.humdata.org/faqs/licenses.

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