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. 2021 Apr 26;72(8):1463-1466.
doi: 10.1093/cid/ciaa933.

Predicted Impact of COVID-19 on Neglected Tropical Disease Programs and the Opportunity for Innovation

Jaspreet Toor 1 , Emily R Adams 2 , Maryam Aliee 3 4 , Benjamin Amoah 5 , Roy M Anderson 6 7 8 , Diepreye Ayabina 1 , Robin Bailey 9 , Maria-Gloria Basáñez 6 7 , David J Blok 10 , Seth Blumberg 11 , Anna Borlase 1 , Rocio Caja Rivera 12 , María Soledad Castaño 13 14 , Nakul Chitnis 13 14 , Luc E Coffeng 10 , Ronald E Crump 3 4 15 , Aatreyee Das 13 14 , Christopher N Davis 3 4 , Emma L Davis 1 , Michael S Deiner 11 16 , Peter J Diggle 5 , Claudio Fronterre 5 , Federica Giardina 10 , Emanuele Giorgi 5 , Matthew Graham 1 17 , Jonathan I D Hamley 6 7 , Ching-I Huang 3 4 , Klodeta Kura 6 7 , Thomas M Lietman 11 16 18 , Tim C D Lucas 1 , Veronica Malizia 10 , Graham F Medley 17 , Aronrag Meeyai 17 , Edwin Michael 12 , Travis C Porco 11 16 18 , Joaquin M Prada 19 , Kat S Rock 3 4 , Epke A Le Rutte 10 13 14 , Morgan E Smith 12 , Simon E F Spencer 4 20 , Wilma A Stolk 10 , Panayiota Touloupou 20 , Andreia Vasconcelos 1 , Carolin Vegvari 6 7 , Sake J de Vlas 10 , Martin Walker 6 21 , T Déirdre Hollingsworth 1
Affiliations

Predicted Impact of COVID-19 on Neglected Tropical Disease Programs and the Opportunity for Innovation

Jaspreet Toor et al. Clin Infect Dis. .

Abstract

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, many key neglected tropical disease (NTD) activities have been postponed. This hindrance comes at a time when the NTDs are progressing towards their ambitious goals for 2030. Mathematical modelling on several NTDs, namely gambiense sleeping sickness, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH), trachoma, and visceral leishmaniasis, shows that the impact of this disruption will vary across the diseases. Programs face a risk of resurgence, which will be fastest in high-transmission areas. Furthermore, of the mass drug administration diseases, schistosomiasis, STH, and trachoma are likely to encounter faster resurgence. The case-finding diseases (gambiense sleeping sickness and visceral leishmaniasis) are likely to have fewer cases being detected but may face an increasing underlying rate of new infections. However, once programs are able to resume, there are ways to mitigate the impact and accelerate progress towards the 2030 goals.

Keywords: coronavirus; modeling; neglected tropical diseases.

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Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Modelling projections showing the impact of missing a round of MDA for schistosomiasis (Schistosoma mansoni; mean worm lifespan, 5.6 years) and (Anopheles-transmitted) lymphatic filariasis (Wuchereria bancrofti; mean worm lifespan, 8 years). Schistosomiasis starting at 75% baseline prevalence in school-aged children (5–14 years old) and treating 75% of school-aged children with praziquantel. Lymphatic filariasis starting at 15% baseline prevalence in the entire population and treating 65% communitywide with ivermectin and albendazole (assuming 30% long-lasting insecticidal nets coverage). Abbreviation: MDA, mass drug administration.

References

    1. World Health Organization. COVID-19: WHO issues interim guidance for implementation of NTD programmes.2020. Available at: https://www.who.int/neglected_diseases/news/COVID19-WHO-interim-guidance.... Accessed 2 April 2020.
    1. Anderson RM, May RM. Infectious diseases of humans: dynamics and control. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 1991.
    1. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Parasites—ascariasis. Available at: https://www.cdc.gov/parasites/ascariasis/biology.html. Accessed 2 April 2020.
    1. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Parasites—trichuriasis (also known as Whipworm Infection). Available at: https://www.cdc.gov/parasites/whipworm/biology.html. Accessed 2 April 2020.
    1. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Parasites—hookworm. Available at: https://www.cdc.gov/parasites/hookworm/biology.html. Accessed 2 April 2020.

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