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. 2019 Dec 31;6(1):e03101.
doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2019.e03101. eCollection 2020 Jan.

Geographic shifts in the bioclimatic suitability for Aedes aegypti under climate change scenarios in Colombia

Affiliations

Geographic shifts in the bioclimatic suitability for Aedes aegypti under climate change scenarios in Colombia

Cristiam Victoriano Portilla Cabrera et al. Heliyon. .

Erratum in

Abstract

The Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika viruses are arboviruses predominantly transmitted to humans through the bite of the female mosquito Aedes aegypti. Currently, the vector represents a potential epidemiological risk in several Latin American and Pacific countries. However, little is known about the geographical distribution and bioclimatic suitability of this mosquito in the projected climate change scenarios in Colombia. Using a species distribution model of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) based on presence-only records obtained from Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), land elevation obtained from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) and bioclimatic variables (WorldClim), we produced environmental suitability maps of this mosquito vector for present and future geographic distribution. The future distribution were constructed based on the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) for the years 2050 and 2070, projected according to the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For the current conditions, Colombia has ~140,612.8 square km of areas with the possible presence of the vector; however, for the future, this will be reduced by more than 30%. For the future conditions, the suitable areas for A. aegypti decreased compared to the present, mainly for the year 2070 under RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5, however, the probability of mosquito occurrence increases in some departments of Colombia. Areas susceptible to the presence of A. aegypti are affected by climate change. The Caribbean and Andean regions have a high probability of mosquito distribution; therefore, control and epidemiological surveillance are required in these areas. The results can serve as an input to define preventive and control measures, especially in areas with a higher risk of contracting the virus.

Keywords: Aedes aegypti; Climate change; Colombia; Environmental change; Environmental suitability; Geographical distribution; Mathematical modeling; MaxEnt; Public health; Viral vector.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
A) Worldwide location (wikipedia.org), B) Natural regions and C) land elevation of Colombia (Adapted from Digital Terrain Model (DTM) of the Radar Shuttle Topographic Mission (SRTM).
Figure 2
Figure 2
Response curves of the logistic prediction of the distribution of A. aegypti under environmental variables (bioclimatic variable). The Y axis shows the probability of presence expressed in logistic values (0–1). Each curve shows a unique model created using only the corresponding variable and represents the mean response of 100 repetitions in MaxEnt (blue) and the mean ±1 standard deviation (SD) (red).
Figure 3
Figure 3
Probabilistic map of environmental suitability present for A. aegypti in Colombia. The red, yellow and green zones indicate high medium and low probability of mosquito distribution, respectively.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Cumulative cases of Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika by department in Colombia, since 2007.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Environmental suitability maps for A. aegypti by 2050 A1) RCP 2.6, A2) RCP 4.5 and A3) RCP 8.5 and changes in potential geographical distribution of A. aegypti by 2050 B1) RCP 2.6, B2) RCP 4.5 and B3) RCP 8.5.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Environmental suitability maps for A. aegypti for 2070 C1) RCP 2.6, C2) RCP 4.5 and C3) RCP 8.5 and changes in potential geographical distribution of A. aegypti for 2070 D1) RCP 2.6, D2) RCP 4.5 and D3) RCP 8.5.
Figure 7
Figure 7
Changes of environmental suitability centroid for A. aegypti for the years 2050 and 2070 in Colombia. The green, orange and red vectors indicate the direction and magnitude of distribution changes under RCP scenarios 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 respectively.

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