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. 2017 Feb 10:2016:743-752.
eCollection 2016.

A Compartmental Model for Zika Virus with Dynamic Human and Vector Populations

Affiliations

A Compartmental Model for Zika Virus with Dynamic Human and Vector Populations

Eva K Lee et al. AMIA Annu Symp Proc. .

Abstract

The Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak in South American countries and its potential association with microcephaly in newborns and Guillain-Barré Syndrome led the World Health Organization to declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. To understand the ZIKV disease dynamics and evaluate the effectiveness of different containment strategies, we propose a compartmental model with a vector-host structure for ZIKV. The model utilizes logistic growth in human population and dynamic growth in vector population. Using this model, we derive the basic reproduction number to gain insight on containment strategies. We contrast the impact and influence of different parameters on the virus trend and outbreak spread. We also evaluate different containment strategies and their combination effects to achieve early containment by minimizing total infections. This result can help decision makers select and invest in the strategies most effective to combat the infection spread. The decision-support tool demonstrates the importance of "digital disease surveillance" in response to waves of epidemics including ZIKV, Dengue, Ebola and cholera.

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Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Transition diagram of the compartmental model. The dashed lines refer to the transitions associated with bites. The lines for vector birth and death are omitted for simplicity.
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
Varying recovery time and incubation time for human and its effect on overall infection and containment.
Figure 3.
Figure 3.
Contrast of total infection and outbreak trends for four containment strategies.
Figure 4.
Figure 4.
Cumulative number of human infections at containment under combination strategies.
Figure 5.
Figure 5.
Varying recovery time, alternative hosts, and incubation time for human and vector and their effect on overall infection and containment.
Figure 6.
Figure 6.
Contrast of total infection and outbreak trends for four containment strategies.
Figure 7.
Figure 7.
Cumulative number of human infections at containment under combination strategies.

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