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. 2016 Nov 23;11(11):e0166180.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0166180. eCollection 2016.

Transmissibility of the Influenza Virus during Influenza Outbreaks and Related Asymptomatic Infection in Mainland China, 2005-2013

Affiliations

Transmissibility of the Influenza Virus during Influenza Outbreaks and Related Asymptomatic Infection in Mainland China, 2005-2013

Tao Chen et al. PLoS One. .

Abstract

We collected 2768 Influenza-like illness emergency public health incidents from April 1, 2005 to November 30, 2013reported in the Emergency Public Reporting System. After screening by strict inclusion and exclusion criteria, there were 613 outbreaks analyzed with susceptible-exposed-infectious/asymptomatic-removed model in order to estimate the proportion of asymptomatic individuals (p) and the effective reproduction number (Rt). The relation between Rt and viral subtypes, regions, outbreak sites, populations, and seasons were analyzed. The mean values of p of different subtypes ranged from 0.09 to 0.15, but could be as high as up to 0.94. Different subtypes, provinces, regions, and sites of outbreak had statistically significantly different Rt. In particular, the southern region also manifested different Rt by affected population size and seasonality. Our results provide China and also the rest of the world a reference to understand characteristics of transmission and develop prevention and control strategies.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Fig 1
Fig 1. Flowchart of influenza outbreak data inclusion criteria in this study.

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