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. 2016 Jun 9;10(6):e0004689.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004689. eCollection 2016 Jun.

Redefining the Australian Anthrax Belt: Modeling the Ecological Niche and Predicting the Geographic Distribution of Bacillus anthracis

Affiliations

Redefining the Australian Anthrax Belt: Modeling the Ecological Niche and Predicting the Geographic Distribution of Bacillus anthracis

Alassane S Barro et al. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. .

Abstract

The ecology and distribution of B. anthracis in Australia is not well understood, despite the continued occurrence of anthrax outbreaks in the eastern states of the country. Efforts to estimate the spatial extent of the risk of disease have been limited to a qualitative definition of an anthrax belt extending from southeast Queensland through the centre of New South Wales and into northern Victoria. This definition of the anthrax belt does not consider the role of environmental conditions in the distribution of B. anthracis. Here, we used the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction model system (GARP), historical anthrax outbreaks and environmental data to model the ecological niche of B. anthracis and predict its potential geographic distribution in Australia. Our models reveal the niche of B. anthracis in Australia is characterized by a narrow range of ecological conditions concentrated in two disjunct corridors. The most dominant corridor, used to redefine a new anthrax belt, parallels the Eastern Highlands and runs from north Victoria to central east Queensland through the centre of New South Wales. This study has redefined the anthrax belt in eastern Australia and provides insights about the ecological factors that limit the distribution of B. anthracis at the continental scale for Australia. The geographic distributions identified can help inform anthrax surveillance strategies by public and veterinary health agencies.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Fig 1
Fig 1. Spatial distribution of anthrax outbreak locations in Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland during three historical periods.
The inset map shows one outbreak location in Western Australia. *Heads-up digitized from Durrheim et al.[17].
Fig 2
Fig 2. Distribution of anthrax outbreak locations used for ecological niche modeling (ENM) experiments.
Yellow dots represent the data points used for model building (n = 72) and green dots were used for model validation (n = 24). *Heads-up digitized from Durrheim et al. [17].
Fig 3
Fig 3. Predicted geographic distribution of Bacillus anthracis in Australia based on GARP ecological niche modeling.
Model agreements represent the number of models in the best subset of models predicting the area to be conducive to Bacillus anthracis persistence. *Heads-up digitized from Durrheim et al.[17].
Fig 4
Fig 4. Median range of environmental variables extracted from the dominant rules in the best subset of models in a GARP experiment.
The most limiting variables associated with the potential geographic distribution of Bacillus anthracis in Australia are represented by narrower median ranges.
Fig 5
Fig 5. The Australian anthrax belt redefined using ecological niche modeling.
Red areas define the extent of the anthrax belt, while khaki areas define regions, with few or no confirmed outbreaks in the historical record, which are predicted to potentially support the survival of B. anthracis.

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