This study aimed to evaluate the relationship between mental disorders at 30 years of age and social mobility by formally testing three hypotheses: Risk Accumulation; Critical Period; and Social Mobility. The study was performed using data from the 30-year follow-up of the Pelotas Birth Cohort Study, conducted in 1982, and data from previous follow-ups. The tool used to evaluate mental health was the Self Report Questionnaire (SRQ-20). For the statistical analysis, the chi-square test with the Yates correction was used to estimate the prevalence of mental disorder, and the Poisson regression with robust variance was used to formally test the hypotheses according to the Risk Accumulation, Critical Period and Social Mobility Models. The analyses were stratified by gender. The prevalence of Common Mental Disorders (CMDs) was 24.3% (95% CI 22.9-25.7) when the whole sample was considered. The highest prevalence, 27.1% (95% CI 25.1-29.2), was found in women, and the difference between genders was significant (p < 0.001). CMDs were more frequent in participants who remained "poor" in the three follow-ups. In both men and women, the best fit was obtained with the Risk Accumulation Model, with p = 0.6348 and p = 0.2105, respectively. The results indicate the need to rethink public income maintenance policies. Finally, we suggest further studies to investigate the role of different public policies in decreasing the prevalence of mental disorders and thus contribute proposals of new policies that may contribute to the prevention of these disorders.

Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

• Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom