Climate predictors of the spatial distribution of human plague cases in the West Nile region of Uganda
- PMID: 22403328
- PMCID: PMC3284373
- DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.2012.11-0569
Climate predictors of the spatial distribution of human plague cases in the West Nile region of Uganda
Abstract
East Africa has been identified as a region where vector-borne and zoonotic diseases are most likely to emerge or re-emerge and where morbidity and mortality from these diseases is significant. Understanding when and where humans are most likely to be exposed to vector-borne and zoonotic disease agents in this region can aid in targeting limited prevention and control resources. Often, spatial and temporal distributions of vectors and vector-borne disease agents are predictable based on climatic variables. However, because of coarse meteorological observation networks, appropriately scaled and accurate climate data are often lacking for Africa. Here, we use a recently developed 10-year gridded meteorological dataset from the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting Model to identify climatic variables predictive of the spatial distribution of human plague cases in the West Nile region of Uganda. Our logistic regression model revealed that within high elevation sites (above 1,300 m), plague risk was positively associated with rainfall during the months of February, October, and November and negatively associated with rainfall during the month of June. These findings suggest that areas that receive increased but not continuous rainfall provide ecologically conducive conditions for Yersinia pestis transmission in this region. This study serves as a foundation for similar modeling efforts of other vector-borne and zoonotic disease in regions with sparse observational meteorologic networks.
Figures
References
-
- Gage KL, Kosoy MY. Natural history of plague: perspectives from more than a century of research. Annu Rev Entomol. 2005;50:505–528. - PubMed
-
- Dennis DT, Chow CC. Plague. Pediatr Infect Dis J. 2004;23:69–71. - PubMed
-
- Crook LD, Tempest B. Plague. A clinical review of 27 cases. Arch Intern Med. 1992;152:1253–1256. - PubMed
-
- Poland JD, Dennis DT. Diagnosis and clinical manifestations. Plague Manual: Epidemiology, Distribution, Surveillance and Control. Geneva: World Health Organization; 1999. pp. 43–54.
Publication types
MeSH terms
LinkOut - more resources
Full Text Sources
Medical