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. 2012 Mar;86(3):514-23.
doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.2012.11-0569.

Climate predictors of the spatial distribution of human plague cases in the West Nile region of Uganda

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Climate predictors of the spatial distribution of human plague cases in the West Nile region of Uganda

Katherine MacMillan et al. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2012 Mar.

Abstract

East Africa has been identified as a region where vector-borne and zoonotic diseases are most likely to emerge or re-emerge and where morbidity and mortality from these diseases is significant. Understanding when and where humans are most likely to be exposed to vector-borne and zoonotic disease agents in this region can aid in targeting limited prevention and control resources. Often, spatial and temporal distributions of vectors and vector-borne disease agents are predictable based on climatic variables. However, because of coarse meteorological observation networks, appropriately scaled and accurate climate data are often lacking for Africa. Here, we use a recently developed 10-year gridded meteorological dataset from the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting Model to identify climatic variables predictive of the spatial distribution of human plague cases in the West Nile region of Uganda. Our logistic regression model revealed that within high elevation sites (above 1,300 m), plague risk was positively associated with rainfall during the months of February, October, and November and negatively associated with rainfall during the month of June. These findings suggest that areas that receive increased but not continuous rainfall provide ecologically conducive conditions for Yersinia pestis transmission in this region. This study serves as a foundation for similar modeling efforts of other vector-borne and zoonotic disease in regions with sparse observational meteorologic networks.

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Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Distribution of case and control locations in the West Nile Region of Uganda.
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
Long-term (1999–2008) monthly average values across the 108 case and control locations for A) total rainfall (mm), B) relative humidity at 2 m above the surface (%), and C) mean (black), maximum (red), and minimum (blue) temperature at 2 m above the surface (°C). Uncertainty bars denote ± 1 standard deviation from the mean. Gray fill denotes the full range of mean values among the 108 locations. Red (blue) hatching denotes the full range of average maximum (average minimum) temperature values.
Figure 3.
Figure 3.
Location of inset represented in Figure 1. Spatial distribution of probability of case occurrence predicted by our best multivariable logistic regression model overlaid on incidence by parish per 1,000 populations for years 1999–2007. The overall model accuracy was 94% with a sensitivity of 89%, a specificity of 90%, a positive predictive value of 82%, and a negative predictive value of 94%.
Figure 4.
Figure 4.
Spatial variation among sites in mean monthly total rainfall values (1999–2008) for months included in our multivariable logistic regression model. Color variation represents quintiles in the rainfall distribution for each month. Variables are listed in the order of significance in our model: (A) October, (B) February, (C) November, and (D) June. The 1,300-m elevation threshold is shown in gray.

References

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