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. 2009;3(2):e382.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0000382. Epub 2009 Feb 17.

Local and global effects of climate on dengue transmission in Puerto Rico

Affiliations

Local and global effects of climate on dengue transmission in Puerto Rico

Michael A Johansson et al. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2009.

Abstract

The four dengue viruses, the agents of dengue fever and dengue hemorrhagic fever in humans, are transmitted predominantly by the mosquito Aedes aegypti. The abundance and the transmission potential of Ae. aegypti are influenced by temperature and precipitation. While there is strong biological evidence for these effects, empirical studies of the relationship between climate and dengue incidence in human populations are potentially confounded by seasonal covariation and spatial heterogeneity. Using 20 years of data and a statistical approach to control for seasonality, we show a positive and statistically significant association between monthly changes in temperature and precipitation and monthly changes in dengue transmission in Puerto Rico. We also found that the strength of this association varies spatially, that this variation is associated with differences in local climate, and that this relationship is consistent with laboratory studies of the impacts of these factors on vector survival and viral replication. These results suggest the importance of temperature and precipitation in the transmission of dengue viruses and suggest a reason for their spatial heterogeneity. Thus, while dengue transmission may have a general system, its manifestation on a local scale may differ from global expectations.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. Local short-term associations between weather and dengue incidence.
Points represent the estimated proportional increase in dengue incidence for an increase in monthly temperature (1°C) or precipitation (1 mm) in each municipality at each lag (months). All lagged weather variables were included in the regression model simultaneously. Municipalities are ordered by mean average temperature or precipitation, low to high (left to right). Black bars indicate the 95% credible interval for each estimate based on 1,000 models, one for each conditional simulation of weather data.
Figure 2
Figure 2. Elevation and climate variation in Puerto Rico.
The map shows the location of each photograph. Natural areas of northern Puerto Rico are moist subtropical forest. Higher elevations are subtropical or montane wet or rain forests. The southwestern coast is subtropical dry forest. Figure S1 shows monthly temperature and precipitation in proximal areas.
Figure 3
Figure 3. Spatial effects of climate on dengue incidence.
Colors represent the relative strength of the cumulative association between monthly temperature and precipitation in each municipality. This is calculated as the cumulative effect of a 1°C increase in mean monthly temperature on dengue incidence in the current and two subsequent months and of a 1 mm increase in precipitation on dengue incidence in the two following months.

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