TIME SERIES MODEL OF LONG-RANGE PREDICTION AND ITS APPLICATION

By generalizing the concept of mean in mathematical statistics to a mean generation function(MGF),the extended matrix of MGF is defined and then a new model of time series is presented.A calculating seheme for modelling of monovariate time series is deduced cooperating with a normalization procedure of vector and a couple score criterion.An example of climatic prediction for ten-year scale is given in this paper,the tendency of variation for every year can be predicted skillfully with the model.