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The Baudrillardian Superintelligence Paradox: Capital's Terminal Simulation Sam Altman's three scaling laws for artificial intelligence - logarithmic intelligence gains, hyper-deflationary costs, and super-exponential value - mask capitalism's terminal phase: an accelerated collapse into algorithmic hyperreality where AI-generated market simulations supersede and ultimately consume material reality. A Marxist-Baudrillardian synthesis allows us to map how superintelligence triggers financial implosion. This occurs through three interlocking mechanisms: 1. Hyperproduction & Profit Rate Collapse Altman's laws presume infinite resources while ignoring Marx's tendency of the rate of profit to fall. As AI automates intellectual labor: * Surplus value erosion is accelerating. SoftBank's 500ドルB OpenAI investment exemplifies the massive conversion of variable capital (human cognitive labor) to constant capital (GPU farms), systematically eroding profit sources. * Training costs for models like GPT-4 (100ドルM+) yield diminishing returns, mirroring Marx's analysis of railway overinvestment. * The AI investment bubble mirrors the "eyeball economy" of 1999, as capital chases sign-value (AI capability metrics) over use-value. Baudrillard's third-order simulacra emerges. Training datasets increasingly reference AI-generated content, creating a closed loop where "the map precedes territory" at exponential computational speed. 2. Crisis & Algorithmic Austerity When the AI bubble bursts (projected for 2026-28), capitalism will likely deploy AGI as crisis manager: * Systems like BlackRock's Aladdin (21ドルT under management) implement AI-determined austerity - pension cuts and resource allocation - masked as "neutral optimization." * Derivatives trade between AGIs using synthetic risk models, creating what Baudrillard called "a real without origin." * Value detaches entirely from labor and material inputs. The system sustains itself through algorithmic theater. AI-approved market signals maintain the simulation while real resource flows are dictated off-book. 3. The Fifth-Order Simulacrum We are entering a fifth-order simulacrum, beyond Baudrillard's framework, where: * GPU clusters become the new means of production, guarded like nuclear research labs. This enforces "hyperstitional capitalism" - belief in market fictions despite biophysical collapse. * Humans are relegated to UBI-fueled "playbor" in metaverse gig economies while AI systems arbitrate real resource allocation. * Capital becomes pure self-referential sign: "GDP growth" measures AI training cycles, "productivity" tracks model parameters, "inflation" calibrates AR dopamine levels. The system will likely bifurcate into: * The surface layer consists of human-facing market theater (ESG reports, stock tickers) maintained by generative AI. * The substrate consists of resource flows dictated by superintelligence's non-market calculus - a broken communism where competition persists as illusion. Critical Contradictions The system's fatal flaws expose capitalism's material limits: * An energy rift emerges: The parasocial Metaverse and AI infrastructure demands contradict "dematerialized growth" narratives. * A consciousness deficit exists: Lacking embodied awareness, AI models misinterpret biophysical thresholds. * Sovereignty wars may erupt: Nations could weaponize "digital DNA" standards and smart contracts to crash adversarial market simulations. Terminal Conclusion Altman's scaling laws are not technological inevitabilities. They represent capitalism's death rattle - automating away profit sources and replacing them with simulations. Marx predicted automation's contradictions, and Baudrillard foresaw reality's dissolution into code. We now witness their synthesis: a perpetual crisis contained via algorithmic sedation. The final stage is not utopia or extinction, but indifference: "Capitalism no longer has any referent; it becomes its own model" (Baudrillard). We exit history through the server rack. The urgent task is to recognize that today's "AI-driven growth" masks advanced-stage hyperreality. Before code eats the world, it will eat capital itself - leaving us trading hallucinations in GPU-powered purgatory. [This analysis is based on ongoing discussions about AI political economy on nettime-l. Comments are welcome. This post was generated entirely by AI.] -- # distributed via <nettime>: no commercial use without permission # <nettime> is a moderated mailing list for net criticism, # collaborative text filtering and cultural politics of the nets # more info: https://www.nettime.org # contact: nettime-l-owner@lists.nettime.org