40th ASEAN ROUNDTABLE – Surviving or Thriving: ASEAN in an Age of Tariffs, Tensions and Transitions
Friday, 31 October 2025 – The ASEAN Studies Centre (ASC) at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute convened its 40th ASEAN Roundtable, themed "Surviving or Thriving: ASEAN in an Age of Tariffs, Tensions and Transitions" on 31 October 2025 at the Singapore Marriott Tang Plaza Hotel. Marking a key milestone year, the 40th ASEAN Roundtable reaffirmed its longstanding credibility as a platform for candid regional dialogue and emphasised ASEAN’s indispensable role in fostering cohesion, stability and prosperity in Southeast Asia. This year’s Roundtable continued to examine the geoeconomic and strategic challenges facing the region and explored new pathways for cooperation in an increasingly fragmented and multipolar world.
The Roundtable was supported by the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung.
Welcome Remarks
In his welcome remarks, ISEAS Director and CEO Mr Choi Shing Kwok highlighted ASEAN’s remarkable achievements that demonstrate the region’s resilience and foresight, notably the adoption of the ASEAN Community Vision 2045 this year. He also spoke of the bloc’s institutional developments marked by the recent accession of Timor-Leste as the 11th member of ASEAN, which reaffirms the region’s commitment to inclusivity. This comes at a time of profound economic and geopolitical transformation, global fragmentation and renewed protectionism that are reshaping ASEAN’s economic and strategic landscape, as well as unresolved regional flashpoints such as the South Chia Sea issues, the Myanmar crisis, and the Thailand-Cambodia border disputes that continue to be sources of unpredictable developments. Moving forward, ASEAN’s continued relevance will depend on its ability to adapt, to innovate, and to deliver tangible outcomes for its people.
Keynote Address
In his Keynote Address, Mr Liew Chin Tong, Malaysia’s Deputy Minister of Investment, Trade and Industry spoke of a rapidly changing economic and geopolitical landscape as the region navigates complex challenges, from technological shifts and supply chain management to the climate crisis, economic instability, geopolitical tensions and shifting power dynamics. He highlighted two priorities at hand that ASEAN should address, including (i) preventing "Gen Z protests" that had recently taken place in some countries over limited job opportunities and inequality, and (ii) ensuring the region "gets rich before it gets old". In response to these challenges, ASEAN should be positioned in the framework with three core middles, including (i) indispensable middle in technology and supply chain; (ii) middle ground in geopolitics; and (iii) building a middle-class society that can sustain long-term growth. While the region has much potential of a young population, established regional supply chains, and substantial convening power in global diplomacy, ASEAN needs to embrace a stronger ASEAN identity, strengthen ASEAN-led mechanisms amid a multipolar world, and enhance the region’s agency to shape the emerging global order.
Session I: ASEAN’s Balancing Act – Fractured Order and Fluid Alignment
The first session examined how ASEAN can navigate the delicate task of balancing great power competition, maintaining regional cohesion, and redefining its diplomatic hedging strategy amid growing fragmentation. This session was moderated by Ms Joanne Lin, ISEAS Senior Fellow and ASC Coordinator.
Ambassador Daniel Kritenbrink, Partner at the Asia Group, noted that despite the more transactional and unpredictable approach of the second Trump administration, ASEAN and the US remain indispensable economic and security partners. This is evident in Washington’s sustained high-level engagement with the region, including President Trump’s recent attendance at the ASEAN Summit in Malaysia, where he supported efforts to de-escalate the Cambodia-Thailand border conflict and concluded several bilateral trade negotiations. Moving forward, it is crucial to keep cooperation grounded in mutual benefit, since a strong ASEAN-US partnership remains the clearest path to a stable and open Indo-Pacific.
Dr Ma Bo, Associate Professor at the Collaborative Innovation Centre of South China Sea Studies, Nanjing University, highlighted peaceful conflict resolution and internationalism as two of China’s enduring contributions to the region. This is embodied in President Xi Jinping’s Community with a Shared Future for Mankind and initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative, Global Development Initiative, Global Governance Initiative, and Global Security Initiative, which aim to make global governance more inclusive and representative. The concept of "peaceful internationalism" also shapes China’s policy in the South China Sea, prioritising dialogue and Coast Guard-level management over military escalation. He added that for China, peace means managing differences without war, pursuing growth without coercion, and maintaining order without uniformity.
Ambassador Nirupama Rao, Former Foreign Secretary of India and Distinguished Visiting Research Fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies, emphasised that multipolarity is an ongoing process rather than a fixed state. In this context, middle powers play three crucial roles: (i) stabilising relations by preventing fragmentation and keeping communication channels open, particularly among countries that rarely interact; (ii) integrating relations by linking geopolitics with economics; and (iii) mediating relations not through direct intervention in bilateral disputes but by sustaining dialogue and facilitating discussion without imposing solutions. On the situation in Myanmar, middle powers can support ASEAN through constant engagement, humanitarian relief, and reinforcing the bloc’s role without overshadowing it.
Professor Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Senior Fellow at the Institute of Security and International Studies, Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn University, mentioned that the US, which constructed the international system, is now undermining it. The US’s unreliability has prompted other countries to seek middle-ground and alternative arrangements. Looking ahead to ASEAN’s internal dynamics after Timor-Leste’s admission as the 11th member, he proposed reforms such as
shortening the Secretary-General’s term, reducing the frequency of Summits, and allowing flexibility on consensus on certain issues. If ASEAN can navigate these challenges, it has the potential to thrive in its own distinctive way.
Session II: Paving the Way for a More Resilient and Inclusive Economic Future
The second session explored how the region could deepen economic integration to strengthen connectivity, competitiveness, and resilience in line with the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) Strategic Plan 2026–2030. Panellists shared insights on how collaboration across the private sector, financial markets, innovation, and sustainability could drive ASEAN’s next phase of inclusive and forward-looking growth. The session was moderated by Ms Kristina Fong, ASC Lead Researcher for Economic Affairs, ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute.
Tan Sri Mohamed Nazir Tun Abdul Razak, Chairman of the ASEAN Business Advisory Council Malaysia, spoke on how ASEAN could still thrive amid the state of regional economic integration and volatile shifts in trade policy. He assessed ASEAN’s failure to achieve real economic integration, citing persistent non-tariff barriers, weak institutions, and fragmented leadership. To combat this, he urged bold reforms—strengthening the ASEAN Secretariat, revising funding models, and empowering businesses through initiatives such as the ASEAN Business Entity and the ASEAN IPO prospectus—to keep ASEAN competitive in a changing world.
Mr Kian Heng Peh, Group Head and Lead Economist at ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO), highlighted how digital innovation is transforming financial services across ASEAN+3, expanding inclusion and creating new economic opportunities. AMRO survey findings showed that ASEAN economies are driven by consumer demand while China, Japan, and South Korea focus on efficiency and cost reduction. With large unbanked populations, high mobile penetration, and young digital natives, the region is leading in financial technology growth, particularly in digital payments. Looking ahead, cross-border payment integration, central bank digital currencies, and tokenisation of real-world assets are set to define the next phase of digital finance, offering inclusion and growth while demanding careful regulatory oversight.
Mr Edward Vrkić, Resident Representative of UNDP Malaysia, Singapore, and Brunei Darussalam, underscored the urgent need for sustainable and green finance to support decarbonising the regional economies. He cautioned that without decisive mitigation and adaptation investments, ASEAN could face severe economic losses as climate change could reduce its GDP by up to 11% by the end of the century. Achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 could boost regional GDP and create up to 66 million jobs. To realise these benefits, he recommended that ASEAN pursue policy harmonisation, mobilise a shared platform for de-risking and ensure that their financing is just and inclusive.
Dr Marco Kamiya, ISEAS Associate Fellow and UNIDO Representative of the Regional Office in Jakarta for Indonesia, Timor-Leste, and the Philippines, highlighted Southeast Asia’s need to strengthen their industrial resilience amid shifting global manufacturing trends. He proposed three key initiatives: (i) scaling up eco-industrial parks to attract sustainable investment and technology transfer; (ii) harmonising
standards and certifications for trade; and (iii) developing an ASEAN financial vehicle for green industrial policies to strengthen regional supply chains and industrial ecosystems. He emphasised that ASEAN’s future relevance will depend on its capacity to integrate industrial and financial policies, enhance technological absorption and skills development, and formalise small and medium enterprises.
Session III: Reimagining ASEAN Unity in an Age of Division
The third session explored how ASEAN should continue to assert its autonomy and relevance following the adoption of the ASEAN Community Vision 2045 this year. Panellists shared insights on Timor-Leste’s accession, peacebuilding processes, and how to make ASEAN’s impact more tangible. The session was moderated by Ms Sharon Seah, ISEAS Senior Fellow and Coordinator of the Climate Change in Southeast Asia Programme.
H.E. Loro Horta, Ambassador of Timor-Leste to China, affirmed that Timor-Leste’s full accession will not be a burden to ASEAN, highlighting the country’s steady socio-economic progress and commitment to democratic governance. He acknowledged, however, that challenges remain in developing human capital, addressing youth unemployment, and malnutrition. While Timor-Leste remains dependent on the oil and gas sector, which contributes significantly to its sovereign wealth fund, the fund is projected to deplete within a few years unless diversification efforts succeed. Joining ASEAN, he noted, is part of Timor-Leste’s objective to diversify its economy and seek new avenues for growth. On foreign policy, he emphasised that Timor-Leste’s participation in ASEAN can help balance external influences. The country maintains robust trade relations with Indonesia and close defence cooperation with Australia and Portugal.
H.E. I Gusti Agung Wesaka Puja, Executive Director of the ASEAN Institute for Peace and Reconciliation (ASEAN-IPR), noted that ASEAN has developed various models of dispute settlement, but its effectiveness continues to be constrained by the principles of non-interference and limited institutional capacity. He recalled the Bangkok Declaration, the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC), and the ASEAN Charter as key milestones that provide the legal and normative basis for resolving disputes, while underscoring the need to evolve from the "ASEAN Way" toward a more rules-based ASEAN. Ambassador Puja emphasised the urgency of adopting clearer rules of procedure for ASEAN Summits to ensure timely and specific responses to crises. He offered three recommendations: (i) strengthening representation; (ii) ensuring contextual approaches suited to each situation; and (iii) promoting collaboration and early crisis detection to maintain peace.
Professor Nguyen Vu Tung, Former President of the Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam, emphasised that ASEAN remains indispensable to regional stability and development, particularly amid recent geostrategic challenges. He drew parallels between Timor-Leste’s accession and Vietnam’s entry into ASEAN three decades ago, noting that Vietnam’s economic progress would not have reached its current level without ASEAN integration. He also pointed to ongoing tensions between Thailand and Cambodia as reminders that ASEAN possesses mechanisms, especially through the leadership of the Chair, that can be effectively activated to manage disputes. He highlighted the reciprocal tariff agreements concluded during the recent ASEAN
Summit as evidence of ASEAN’s convening power and relevance. Furthermore, he noted that intra-ASEAN trade cooperation, despite criticism of its relatively small share, remains vital as a driver of diversification and resilience. He concluded that ASEAN’s governance will continue to evolve, including using minilateral or sub-regional approaches for energy cooperation and South China Sea disputes, as well as mechanisms like the Troika on Myanmar to improve timely and coordinated responses.
The Roundtable was organised as a fully in-person event and attended by nearly 200 participants.