National Institute of Population and Social Security Research

Foreign Scholar Lecture Series

"India's unconventional demographic change and its implications"


Date and time: 18:30 〜, April 11 (Mon.), 2022

Venue: Online by zoom, with Japanese and English simultaneous translation

Lecturer: K.S.James (Director and Sr. Professor, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS), India)

Abstract:


It is now well accepted that India is experiencing profound demographic changes in recent years. India’s fertility rate reached replacement level by 2019. At the same time, the reasons for rapid demographic changes in India remain uncertain. Unlike the experience of many other countries, India’s fertility transition is unconventional and has its own specificities. The connection between socio-economic changes and the fertility patterns is rather blurred and the forces that appeared to have triggered demographic changes are different as compared to the experience from other countries. Moreover, the transition was also not uniform across states leading to significant demographic heterogeneity. As a result, the implications of fertility transition in India will be significantly different.

Undoubtedly, India’s recent fertility transition has also altered its age distribution with major share of population now in the working age group. Therefore, the demographic dividend potential of the country is now well recognized. There has been an overwhelming optimism that the demographic bonus will take the country to greater economic heights. At the same time there are pessimists doubting the ability of the country to take advantage of demographic dividend due to several constraints. However, these constraints necessitate detailed enquiry.

This presentation will focus on the nature of demographic changes in India and brings out its specificities. It also discusses the regional heterogeneities in the demographic changes and its implications. Further it discusses the implications fertility transition in terms of demographic dividend and the ability of the country to realize the demographic dividend.

*This seminar was co-organized with Asian Population Association.



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