National Institute of Population and Social Security Research

Foreign Scholar Lecture Series

"Revisiting Malthus on Growth: Demography, Economy, Religion"


Date and time: 16:00 - 17:30, March 21 (Thursday), 2013

Place: IPSS Meeting Room No.4, 6th floor, Hibiya Kokusai Building, 2-2-3 Uchisaiwai-cho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo MAP
(TEL 03-3595-2984)


Lecturer: Prof.Yves Charbit (Professor of demography, University Paris Descartes. Director of CEPED)

Abstract:
In 1798 the Essay on the Principle of Population forecast the risk of overpopulation, whereas the Principles of Political Economy, published in 1820, expressed strong concern about insufficient demographic growth. How to account for this theoretical incoherence? Moreover a series of epistemological contradictions canbe noted. Why did Malthus, being a theoretical economist, never recommended the use of contraception, although he was perfectly aware, as an empiricist observer, that several social strata took recourse to it to avoid lowering their standard of living due to family responsibilities? After a brief recall of the central concepts of Malthus’s thought, I propose three models to show that Malthus was highly consistent. The first model is based on the regulation of population by mortality and very little importance is given to man’s ability to ensure his own survival. The second model, which focuses on the agricultural sector, is undoubtedly embedded in classical political economy; population, just as any other good, is negotiated in the market and its growth is determined by the demand for labour (i.e. employment). The third model is far more complex and it shows the interdisciplinary dimension of Malthus’s thought, who was looking for a doctrinal and theoretical solution to the problem of poverty. First, he completely abandoned two major "malthusian" views: there could not be an autonomous demographic growth; foodstuffs were no longer a ceiling blocking population growth. Second, Malthus believed, contrary to Ricardo, in the possibility of a continuous demographic growth, provided a "strong and continued demand for labour" existed. Third, growth could be maximized only if God’s designs were fulfilled, thanks to moral restraint and the principle of population. The conclusion briefly answers three questions. Why is the demographer universally known? Why is the economist almost forgotten? What battle was the parson really fighting?


*Presentation and discussion were given in English.
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