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Is there a formula to select tau if I have a specific uncertainty target in mind? #135
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Let's say I want players that have many games to have an uncertainty to be close to 2.5. Is there a formula I can use to know what value of tau I could use to achieve this result?
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The way sigma is processed internally after a rating update is like so:
Here is a good formula:
In code:
import math sigma = 0 tau = 2.5 * math.sqrt(abs(1 - 0.016 * sigma**2)) processed_sigma = math.sqrt(sigma**2 + tau**2)
At sigma of 0, it will always output 2.5 and at sigma of 25/2 it will output a value slightly higher than with the default tau of
Note: This has not been tested on simulations or real world data, so please let us know if it works. Thanks.
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