DP20830 State Capacity and Subjective Well-Being in Early Modern Spain

• Carlos Álvarez-Nogal Leandro Prados de la Escosura
12 Nov 2025

In early modern Spain, state capacity has been regarded as weak in the historical literature. In this paper, we assess the Spanish Monarchy’s ability to implement its policies through an output measure rather than an input—specifically, the distribution of the Bull of the Crusade. Furthermore, we explore how shifts in state capacity influenced subjective well-being. In a religious society like early modern Spain, spiritual satisfaction functions as a measure of subjective well-being. It was achieved by reducing the perceived time spent in Purgatory after death to atone for sins committed during life, which could be done by purchasing indulgences. Consuming the Bull of the Crusade, an affordable form of almsgiving, granted a plenary indulgence and, therefore, eliminated the need for penance in the afterlife for all sins committed prior to its purchase. Obtaining the bull reduced death anxiety and increased life satisfaction. Our measure of subjective well-being—the logarithmic ratio of bulls sold to the population, both normalised—indicates whether spiritual satisfaction was attained. Subjective well-being declined in the late 1570s and 1580s during years of severe financial crisis, in the 1640s during the Catalan Revolt, and collapsed during Spain’s War of Succession (1701-14) and its aftermath. Reductions in state capacity coincided with decreases in spiritual satisfaction, while demand for bulls remained relatively stable over time. Declines in state capacity appear to be the primary factor behind these decreases in spiritual satisfaction and, consequently, lower subjective well-being.