Explaining climate change science & rebutting global warming misinformation
Global warming is real and human-caused. It is leading to large-scale climate change. Under the guise of climate "skepticism", the public is bombarded with misinformation that casts doubt on the reality of human-caused global warming. This website gets skeptical about global warming "skepticism".
Our mission is simple: debunk climate misinformation by presenting peer-reviewed science and explaining the techniques of science denial, discourses of climate delay, and climate solutions denial.
2025 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #46
Posted on 16 November 2025 by BaerbelW, Doug Bostrom
Stories we promoted this week, by category:
International Climate Conferences and Agreements (11 articles)
- Landmark Paris Agreement set a path to slow warming. The world hasn't stayed on it The world has seen faster climate change than expected since the Paris Agreement a decade ago The Independent News, Seth Borenstein, Nov 09, 2025.
- Amid squabbles, bombast and competing interests, what can Cop30 achieve? Climate summit in Brazil needs to find way to stop global heating accelerating amid stark divisions The Guardian, Fiona Harvey, Nov 09, 2025.
- Climate conference's webpages emit 10 times more carbon than average sites, study says Phys.org, University of Edinburgh, Nov 10, 2025.
- Fight fake news and defeat climate deniers, Brazil's Lula tells UN talks BBC News, Georgina Rannard, Nov 10, 2025.
- Webinar: Carbon Brief`s first `ask us anything` at COP30 As COP30 began in the Brazilian city of Belém, Carbon Brief hosted the first of three webinars to exclusively answer questions submitted by holders of the Insider Pass. Carbon Brief, Carbon Brief Staff, Nov 10, 2025.
- COP30 climate pledges favor unrealistic land-based carbon removal over emission cuts, says report Phys.org, University of Melbourne, Nov 13, 2025.
- The Global Climate Leadership Vacuum The United States is largely absent from the United Nations climate negations in Brazil. So who is stepping up? New York Times, Claire Brown, Nov 13, 2025.
- Once a global leader on climate action, the EU has given in to the right`s green-bashing | Nathalie Tocci From deforestation to emissions trading, vital policies are being watered down in the name of ‘competitiveness’. But Europe is shooting itself in the foot The Guardian, Nathalie Tocci, Nov 14, 2025.
- Fossil fuel lobbyists outnumber all Cop30 delegations except Brazil, report says One in every 25 participants at 2025 UN climate summit is a fossil fuel lobbyist, according to Kick Big Polluters Out The Guardian, Nina Lakhani, Nov 14, 2025.
- The COP30 briefing video Youtube, Simon Clark, Nov 14, 2025.
- 170,000ドル a minute: why Saudi Arabia is the biggest blocker of climate action Desert kingdom depends on oil dollars but its people already face a climate ‘at the verge of livability’. What’s going on? The Guardian, Damian Carrington, Nov 15, 2025.
Public Misunderstandings about Climate Science (4 articles)
- Five ways Joe Rogan misleads listeners about climate change Rogan exposes millions to climate denial. Let’s break down his tactics. Yale Climate Connections, Dana Nuccitelli, Nov 07, 2025.
- How Disinformation Is Affecting COP30 - And You CleanTechnica, Carolyn Fortuna, Nov 11, 2025.
- The comforting but dangerous fantasy of ‘normal’ climatic and political aberrations The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Benjamin Santer, David W.J. Thompson, Nov 11, 2025.
- News Corp Australia chair says outlets not part of climate crisis `denial machine` Michael Miller tells Senate misinformation inquiry platforming climate deniers and net zero critics part of ‘great democracy and healthy debate’ The Guardian, Graham Readfearn, Nov 13, 2025.
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #46 2025
Posted on 13 November 2025 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
[画像:A desk piled high with research reports]
Robust increase in observed heat storage by the global subsurface , Cuesta-Valero et al., Science Advances
Changes in heat storage within the different components of the climate system alter physical and biogeochemical phenomena relevant for human societies and ecosystems. Among such processes, permafrost thawing, soil carbon storage, and surface energy exchanges depend on the persistent heat gain by the continental subsurface. Nevertheless, there are not enough data to estimate ground heat storage at the global scale after the year 2000. We solve this problem by expanding the database of geothermal data with remote sensing observations from satellite platforms. Estimates from satellite data show a heat gain between 16.4 ± 3.4 and 21.78 ± 0.62 zettajoules during the past six decades. The global ground heat storage presents a positive acceleration between 0.16 ± 0.15 and 0.624 ± 0.032 zettajoules per square decade, similarly to the rest of components of the Earth heat inventory. The planned satellite missions ensure the monitoring of the land component of the Earth heat inventory in the future.
Bridging the Gap: Empowering Rural Teachers to Navigate the Complex Terrain of Climate Science Education , Scheer et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Despite significant resources dedicated to climate science education, teachers often encounter unique challenges due to local cultural and social norms. This study investigates these challenges faced by teachers in rural eastern Colorado when teaching anthropogenic climate change mandated in state academic standards. We explored teachers’ confidence in their knowledge, their belief in the importance of teaching this topic, and concerns about potential risks that influenced their teaching decisions. We found that teachers’ instructional choices are shaped by both their lack of understanding of the scientific evidence for climate change and concerns about community backlash. These findings highlight the need for support that goes beyond simply improving teachers’ scientific knowledge. We recommend 1) providing local examples to make climate science more relevant to students’ lives, 2) involving community members and school administrators in professional development to foster a supportive environment, and 3) partnering with trusted local figures, such as agricultural extension agents, to build bridges between scientific expertise and local knowledge.
Negative verbal probabilities undermine communication of climate science , Juanchich et al., Nature Climate Change
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recommends describing low-probability outcomes using negative verbal probability terms such as unlikely, rather than positive terms such as a small probability. However, we propose that this choice of probability terms might undermine public perception and understanding of climate science. Across eight preregistered experiments (N = 4,150), we find that participants perceive outcomes described with negative low probability terms as reflecting lower scientific consensus than probabilistically equivalent but positively framed terms. The effect persists after controlling for beliefs in climate change, familiarity with the IPCC and political orientation, although it weakens when the projected values exceeded participants’ personal expectations. Participants also associate negative low-probability terms more strongly with extreme outcomes and judge them as less evidence-based than their positive counterparts. We recommend using positive verbal probabilities to communicate comparable levels of uncertainty without undermining perceptions of scientific consensus and evidence.
Accelerated rifting in response to regional climate change in the East African Rift System , Muirhead et al., Scientific Reports
Continental rifting is influenced by interactions between tectonic, magmatic, and surface processes, with the latter strongly dependent on regional climate. We test the role of regional climate variability on rift system behavior, by investigating fault slip rate changes in the South Turkana Basin (Lake Turkana Rift, northern Kenya) at the end of the African Humid Period. Throw rates on 27 faults examined during the African Humid Period (9,631–5,333 yr BP) and post-African Humid Period (5,333 yr BP–present) exhibit a mean 0.17 ± 0.08 mm/yr increase during the drier, post-African Humid Period. Numerical simulations reveal Coulomb stress changes from two loading sources that may explain these changes: (1) reduced vertical loading from a 100–150 m lake level drop, and (2) increased magmatic loading from enhanced mantle melt production due to reduced lake loading. An increase in magma flux of > 0.1 km3/kyr below the South Turkana Basin results in Coulomb stress changes exceeding those expected from a 100–150 m lake level drop. We provide the first empirical evidence of increased fault activity in response to climate-induced lake level changes in the East African Rift System over time scales of 103–104 years, and reveal that climate-tectonic interactions are enhanced in magmatically active rift systems.
From this week's government/NGO section:
State of the Cryosphere 2025 Ice Loss = Global Damage, International Cryosphere Climate Initiative
Current unambitious climate commitments, leading the world to well over 2°C of warming, spell disaster for billions of people from global ice loss, but that damage can still be prevented, according to the authors. The authors note that thresholds likely at just 1°C of warming for the stability of the polar ice sheets and even lower temperatures for many glaciers. The authors also note however that the most proactive climate pathways, also released today, can bring down temperatures below 1.5°C by 2100 and below 1°C next century – but only if reductions begin immediately.
Climate change enhanced intensity of Hurricane Melissa, testing limits of adaptation in Jamaica and eastern Cuba, Clarke et al., World Weather Attribution
Hurricane Melissa moved very slowly across the Caribbean, allowing the storm to gather immense destructive energy over very warm ocean waters. When it finally made landfall in Jamaica as a Category 5 hurricane, the storm hit a region familiar with hurricanes, but unaccustomed to one of such exceptional strength and intensity. To estimate if human-induced climate change influenced the heavy rainfall, the authors first determined if there is a trend in the observations. In Jamaica, they found that heavy 5-day rainfall events such as the one associated with Melissa are about 30% more intense and about twice as likely in today’s climate, that is 1.3°C warmer than it would have been without human-induced climate change. In Eastern Cuba the observations show an even stronger increase of about 50% in intensity and a factor 9 in frequency. Taking all lines of evidence together, including the observations, the IRIS analysis, other studies in the region, and physical reasoning, that in a warming climate an increase in heavy rainfall is expected, the authors estimate an increase in intensity of the rainfall associated with hurricanes like Melissa to be larger than 9%.
128 articles in 59 journals by 908 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Mean Kinetic Energy and Its Projected Changes Dominate Over Eddy Kinetic Energy in the Arctic Ocean, Rieck et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl117957
The impacts of climate change on tropical-to-extratropical transitions in the North Atlantic Basin, Garin et al., Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.5194/wcd-6-1379-2025
On the Gates climate memo
Posted on 12 November 2025 by Zeke Hausfather
This is a re-post from The Climate Brink
There are a lot of things I agree with in Bill Gates’ new memo on climate change. The recent cutbacks on international spending on vaccination, malaria control, feeding the hungry, and poverty alleviation by many of the richest countries (driven in part by a desire for more military spending) is a catastrophe that will cost thousands if not millions of lives. Adaptation is a critically important part of addressing climate change, and a world with more prosperity and less inequality is one where we can better deal with the impacts of climate change – at least up to a point.
But in other areas I feel that it needlessly sets up a conflict between laudable goals: we can both mitigate emissions and alleviate poverty, disease, and hunger. While there are some tradeoffs it is more a question of policy priority than a zero sum game. Similarly, I feel that Gates is a bit too cavalier in his treatment of climate risk.
Given the strong reactions to Gates’ memo both on the left and the right, I thought it would be helpful to provide a more measured reaction and critique, and give some thoughts how to move forward to – as Gates suggests – have the most positive impact on the world.
A zero sum game?
Bill Gates – through his philanthropic work with the Gates Foundation – has done more than almost anyone else on the planet to meaningfully improve the lives of the world’s poorest. The Gates Foundation was the founding funder of Gavi which helped expand vaccination in the global south and drive down prices. They did key work to help eradicate polio, combat HIV, TB and malaria, deliver sanitation and clean drinking water, and worked to raise smallholder farmer yields and income through access to agricultural technology.
The recent gutting of USAID – and smaller reductions in aid spending by other countries – is a humanitarian catastrophe and threatens to undo much of the work that the Gates Foundation supported over the past few decades. I can see why, in light of these urgent needs, he is suggesting that resources to combat climate change be repurposed toward dealing with poverty, hunger, and disease.
But this assumes that funding for climate and development (to use a term to encompass help improve the lives of the world’s poorest) are inherently zero sum. And here I think that, for the most part, Gates errs in his analysis – for a few reasons:
First, the vast majority of spending on climate mitigation worldwide is not in low income countries, and there is little reason to assume that cutting it would free up resources for development aid. The world spent more than two trillion on clean energy technologies (albeit somewhat expansively defined) in 2024, but the overwhelming majority of this was spent by middle- and high-income countries (e.g. China, the US, the EU, the UK, India, Japan, etc.) to build domestic clean energy, build transmission, buy electric vehicles, electrify heating, etc.
Climate Adam - Climate Scientist responds to Bill Gates
Posted on 11 November 2025 by Guest Author
This video includes personal musings and conclusions of the creator climate scientist Dr. Adam Levy. It is presented to our readers as an informed perspective. Please see video description for references (if any).
Video description
Bill Gates just published a climate think piece that has taken the internet by storm. While conservatives are claiming he's backtracked on climate change, the truth is much more subtle. So what does the Microsoft founder, Gates, get right and wrong about climate change? And why might he be downplaying the risks at a crucial moment for our planet's climate?
Support ClimateAdam on patreon: https://patreon.com/climateadam
[フレーム]
Five ways Joe Rogan misleads listeners about climate change
Posted on 10 November 2025 by dana1981
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections
Joe Rogan has one of the most popular podcasts on Spotify and Apple Podcasts and a combined 50 million followers on YouTube, Spotify, and Instagram. And like nearly all of today’s most popular online shows, Rogan’s spreads climate misinformation.
In an October episode of his podcast, Rogan interviewed two octogenarian fringe climate contrarians, Richard Lindzen and William Happer, who together have been spreading climate misinformation since at least 2012. For over two hours, the trio discussed climate myths and conspiracy theories, many of them identical to the misinformation Lindzen and Happer were peddling well over a decade ago. (See here for a brief debunking of 19 of the myths raised on the show.)
Five common techniques of climate denial
As Yale Climate Connections reported earlier this year, about one in five U.S. adults and 37% of adults under 30 say they regularly get news from social media influencers — which means they’re likely consuming a lot of myths about climate change.
I asked John Cook, a cognitive scientist at the University of Melbourne studying climate misinformation, how people can distinguish truth from fiction. I worked alongside Cook in the 2010s to debunk climate myths at the volunteer-run website Skeptical Science.
Cook recommends learning about the common techniques that bad actors use to distort the facts.
“Once people spot it in one topic, they can spot it in another,” he explained.
In a new book chapter, Cook and coauthor Dominik Stecula outline the five common techniques of science denial.
- Fake experts: presenting an unqualified person or institution as a source of credible information
- Logical fallacies: arguments where the conclusion doesn’t logically follow from the premise
- Impossible expectations: demanding unrealistic standards of certainty before acting on the science
- Cherry-picking: carefully selecting data that appear to confirm one position while ignoring other data that contradicts that position
- Conspiracy theories: an explanation for a situation that rejects the consensus view in favor of a secret plot by powerful groups with a malevolent goal
Cook calls it FLICC for short. And he says when audiences are on the lookout for FLICC tactics, they are better prepared to notice and challenge misinformation.
Rogan’s podcast often puts FLICC on full display when discussing climate change, so it’s a good example of how the playbook works.
2025 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #45
Posted on 9 November 2025 by BaerbelW, Doug Bostrom
Stories we promoted this week, by category:
Climate Change Impacts (6 articles)
- Revisiting The Category 6 Conversation After Hurricane Melissa Forbes, Marshall Shepherd, Nov 1, 2025.
- Insurer calls for climate action as severe weather drives premiums up A major insurer is warning Australians to expect rising home insurance premiums, in part due to increasingly frequent and damaging weather events. Australian Broadcasting Corp., Samuel Yang and Yiying Li, Nov 03, 2025.
- The ground is swallowing homes in this Native village in Alaska. Residents have no choice but to move The climate crisis is causing the permafrost to melt in Alaska, forcing the village of Nunapitchuk to relocate The Guardian, Ismael M Belkoura, Amalia Huot-Marchand, Leonardo Pini and Athan Yanos in Nunapitchuk, Alaska, Nov 03, 2025.
- Deadly in the Rivers in the Sky There are invisible rivers streaming across the sky — massive plumes of moisture borne over the oceans and wafted across the continents. Washington Post, Ben Noll, Sarah Kaplan, Niko Kommenda, Kevin Crowe and John Muyskens, Nov 3, 2025.
- I covered Antarctica's melt for a decade. How I think about the risk We don't know exactly what's going to happen. We definitely don't know that it's no big deal. ReportEarth, Chris Mooney, Nov 7, 2025.
- The Guardian view on worsening extreme weather: the injustice of the climate crisis grows ever clearer | Editorial The increasing ferocity and frequency of tropical storms imposes an unbearable burden on countries including Jamaica The Guardian, Editorial, Nov 07, 2025.
Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation (6 articles)
- Teachers unions leverage contracts to fight climate change As federal support and financial incentives for climate action wither, this sort of local action is becoming more difficult but also more urgent, advocates say. Grist, Caroline Preston, The Hechinger Report, Nov 02, 2025.
- `If you ignore emissions, we did great`: Germany`s challenging fight to go green While still on track to meet net zero commitments, climate groups say country’s toughest hurdles are yet to come The Guardian, Ajit Niranjan, Nov 02, 2025.
- Climate-fighting efforts show slight gain but still fall far short, UN says All nations of the world had homework this year: submit new-and-improved plans to fight climate change. But the plans they handed in “have barely moved the needle” on reducing Earth’s future warming, a new United Nations report finds. AP News, Seth Borenstein & Melissa Walding, Nov 4, 2025.
- We`re losing the EV race because we still think it`s about the environment There's more than one way to go green, but instead of focusing on the electric vehicle as a breakthrough technology, Washington framed it as an environmental issue — one that remains politically divisive. TheHill, Channing Lee, Nov 05, 2025.
- On the Gates climate memo The Climate Brink, Zeke Hausfather, Nov 05, 2025.
- Climate Scientist Responds to Bill Gates ClimateAdam on Youtube, Adam Levy, Nov 5, 2025.
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #45 2025
Posted on 6 November 2025 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
[画像:A desk piled high with research reports]
Tropical cyclones expand faster at warmer relative sea surface temperature , Wang et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Tropical cyclone (TC) size strongly affects its hazards and impacts. This study shows that observed TC size expands substantially faster over relatively warmer water across the major Northern Hemisphere ocean basins. Expansion rates increase much more slowly with global-mean warming as found in simple model simulation experiments. Hence, ocean regions that warm more quickly are more likely to support storms that expand more rapidly, potentially increasing their potential to cause damage and make forecasting the area of their impacts more difficult.
Increasing extreme winds challenge offshore wind energy resilience , Zhao et al., Nature Communications
Climate change is amplifying the intensity of extreme strong winds, threatening the development and resilience of offshore wind energy systems. The ability of wind turbines to endure such conditions is determined by the fifty-year return period wind speed (U50), a key parameter for turbine design. However, the long-term trends and spatial variability of U50 across global oceans remain largely unexplored. Here, we utilize hourly ERA5 wind speed data at 100 meters above sea level from 1940 to 2023 to reveals a significant global increase in oceanic U50 of 0.016 m s?¹ yr-1 (p < 0.01), with upward trends evident in 62.85% of coastal regions. Notably, over 40% of both commissioned and planned offshore wind farms in Asia and Europe have encountered wind speeds exceeding the design threshold of Class III turbines (37.5 m s?¹). More than half of these wind farms are situated in regions with increasing U50 trends, a pattern strongly associated with changes in tropical and extratropical cyclone activity under global warming. These findings underscore the critical need to adapt offshore wind energy infrastructure to withstand evolving wind extremes.
Black Summer Arson: Examining the Impact of Climate Misinformation and Corrections on Reasoning , Spearing et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology
Climate misinformation has been identified as a barrier to mitigative action. One prominent example occurred when the 2019/2020 “Black Summer” bushfires in Australia were blamed on arson. This claim is cognitively attractive because of its simplicity and was widely publicised at the time, but also thoroughly debunked. In two experiments, we examined the impact of a fictional misleading article implicating arson as the primary cause of the Black Summer fires on Australian (Exp. 1, N = 509) and Canadian (Exp. 2, N = 506) participants' reasoning, associated donation behaviour, and climate change attitudes. The misinformation significantly influenced reasoning about the Black Summer and future fires in both experiments; it also reduced the donations of Australian participants to a local climate organisation and impacted Canadian participants’ reasoning about a novel, conceptually related (but fictional) flooding event. Corrections were largely effective at mitigating misinformation impact. A bolstered correction that portrayed climate change as an important causal factor through its impact on risks and emphasised the multicausality of natural disasters was more effective than a simple correction that merely refuted the misinformation. Climate change attitudes were largely unaffected by the misinformation and interventions. Our findings demonstrate that event-specific climate misinformation can influence reasoning beyond a specific event, and that corrections are broadly useful for combatting its effects.
Communicating Uncertain Climate Futures: Lessons From the Literature , Craig et al., WIREs Climate Change
There is increasing demand for information about future climate risk to inform climate change adaptation planning. However, climate change impacts are uncertain and complex, and climate information is often technical and challenging to communicate. To inform effective methods for communicating future climate information, we undertake a review of reviews of risk communication literature, with a focus on improving comprehension. We do not constrain our literature search by the type of risk or the geographical region to allow for interdisciplinary and geographical learning, but find that most reviews occur within health, and there is a bias towards North American and European studies. Four key themes were identified during the review: (1) understanding probability and uncertainty, (2) presentation of risk and probability information, (3) positive or negative framing of risk information, and (4) the process of risk communication. Understanding of probabilistic and uncertain information varies amongst not only the general public but also scientific experts, possibly due to differences in cognitive processes and familiarity with statistics. Icon arrays and bar charts were identified as improving comprehension of risk information, whilst qualitative descriptors of risk were deemed less effective than quantitative descriptions, though a combination of the two may be most optimal. Common methods of communicating climate projections (box plots and plume plots) have not been widely reviewed. Health risks have different characteristics from climate change risks and as such we identify lessons that are relevant to climate, and areas where further research is needed to inform effective climate risk communication.
From this week's government/NGO section:
Carbon dioxide removal in the G20 pledges: limited and lacking credibility. A State of Carbon Dioxide Removal Insight Report, Lamb et al., Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland, et al
Countries must sharply reduce emissions and scale up carbon dioxide removal (CDR) to meet the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement, but the role of CDR in current pledges remains limited and lacks credibility. Only three G20 members submitted a new Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) by the February 2025 deadline. Less than half submitted one by the end of September 2025. As it stands, only eight provide enough information to judge the contribution of CDR to meeting their targets. Even fewer parties have taken actions to make these pledges credible, namely by setting net zero emissions targets into law, implementing CDR policies and measures, and comprehensively planning for scaling up CDR. Without more transparency and credible commitments, it remains highly uncertain whether parties plan to support CDR and if these plans are sufficient to put the world on track for scaling it by the mid-century.
How to Get to the Net? A discussion paper on carbon dioxide removal, UN-convened Net-Zero Asset Owner Alliance Working Group, United Nations Environment Program
Ten years after the 2015 Paris Agreement, decarbonization remains a cornerstone of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. However, decarbonization alone is insufficient. While reducing emissions is critical, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) already exceeds acceptable levels, necessitating the removal of historical emissions to reverse climate change. Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is essential to achieving “net negative” emissions, a concept supported by climate science and integrated into ambitious net-zero pathways. Natural carbon sinks, such as forests and oceans, have historically played a key role in removing CO2. However, deforestation, ocean acidification, and other factors have diminished their effectiveness, with some at risk of becoming net emitters. Preserving these ecosystems is vital but insufficient on its own. Both nature-based and technology-based CDR solutions must be scaled rapidly to meet the growing demand for durable carbon removal. Nature-based solutions offer scalability and environmental co-benefits but face challenges like reversal risks, while technology-based solutions provide durability and verifiability but are costly. Carbon markets are pivotal in scaling CDR solutions but have struggled to support removals effectively. The authors explore the current CDR landscape, identifies barriers to scaling, and offers recommendations to enhance carbon markets, mobilize financing, and foster a stable demand for CDR.
124 articles in 54 journals by 739 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Asymmetry of abyssal warming in the Atlantic Ocean, Frey, Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105132
Conditional Attribution of Cold Extremes in Canada: The Role of Atmospheric Circulation in a Changing Climate, Liang et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100826
Debunking Joe Rogan, Dick Lindzen, and Will Happer
Posted on 5 November 2025 by dana1981
Joe Rogan has one of the most popular podcasts on the Spotify and Apple Podcasts platforms, and a combined 50 million followers on YouTube, Spotify, and Instagram. And like nearly all of the most popular online shows , Rogan’s frequently tends to spread climate misinformation.
On his October 21st episode , Rogan interviewed two octogenarian fringe climate contrarians, Richard Lindzen and William Happer, who together have been spreading climate misinformation in the media that we at SkS have been debunking since at least 2012 . For over two hours the trio discussed climate myths and conspiracy theories, many of them identical to the misinformation Lindzen and Happer were peddling well over a decade ago.
In this post we’ll do a brief debunking of 19 of the climate myths that were raised in the podcast episode. See this article for a look at the underlying psychology and science denial techniques. Each of the 19 myths is included in a sub-section below, with the quote provided in a blue box, including a link to the timestamp in the podcast, followed by a brief debunking.
A degree of global warming is a lot
Lindzen @ 6:02 : “global mean temperature doesn't change much, but you know you focus on one degree, a half degree, so it looks like something”
Lindzen @ 22:06 : “Gutierrez at the UN says the next half degree and we're done for. I mean, doesn't anyone ask, a half degree? I mean, I deal with that between, you know, 9:00 a.m. and 10:00 a.m [laughs]. Rogan: "it does seem crazy. It's just that kind of fear of minute change that they try to put into people.”
Seemingly small changes in Earth’s average global temperature represent a tremendous amount of heat energy and can cause large changes in the climate, such as extreme weather events. The last ice age was ‘only’ about 5°C colder than the recent relatively warm period, for example.
Global warming and predictions in the 1970s
Lindzen @ 6:15 : “[global mean temperature] was cooling from the 1930s. 1930s were very warm and it was getting cooler until the 70s and that's why they were saying well you know this is going to lead to an ice age and they focused on that for a while.”
The Earth’s average temperature increased slightly from 1930 to 1970 , by about 0.05°C, although this was less clear in the temperature data at the time. Scientists were studying competing effects resulting from the burning of fossil fuels – cooling caused by sulfate aerosols that block sunlight and are caused by sulfur dioxide pollution, and warming from carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions. Some studies concluded that if sulfur dioxide emissions were to continue rising rapidly for many more decades, the resulting cooling effect could trigger an ice age. Instead, pollution regulations soon caused those emissions to decline.
A 2008 paper that looked at the relevant research in the 1970s found that a majority of studies were predicting global warming at the time.
Fact brief - Does cold weather disprove human-caused climate change
Posted on 4 November 2025 by Sue Bin Park
[画像:FactBrief]Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline.
Does cold weather disprove human-caused climate change
[画像:No]The planet continues to warm due to human activity; bouts of cold weather don’t change this.
Satellites around the world measure temperatures at different places throughout the year. These are averaged to calculate annual global temperatures.
The past ten years (2015-2024) have been the ten hottest since modern record-keeping began in 1850, and 2024 was the all-time hottest. The last time Earth had a colder-than-average year was 1976.
Weather refers to meteorological conditions — heat, humidity, precipitation, etc. — in a given moment, while climate represents patterns of weather over time.
Cold snaps still occur, but they’re becoming less common as Earth warms from human emissions of heat-trapping gases.
Go to full rebuttal on Skeptical Science or to the fact brief on Gigafact
This fact brief is responsive to quotes such as this one.
Sources
NOAA 2024 was the world’s warmest year on record
Scientific American The Past Three Summers Were the Three Hottest on Record
Yale Climate Connections September 2025: Earth’s 3rd-warmest September on record
NOAA Global Climate Report August 2025
Carbon Brief State of the climate: 2025 on track to be second or third warmest year on record
Please use this form to provide feedback about this fact brief. This will help us to better gauge its impact and usability. Thank you!
Climate change strengthened Hurricane Melissa, making the storm’s winds stronger and the damage worse.
Posted on 3 November 2025 by Guest Author
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Jeff Masters
[画像:Satellite image of Hurricane Melissa.]Visible satellite image (with lightning) of Hurricane Melissa at 4:55 p.m. EDT Sunday, Oct. 26, when it was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph (230 km/h) winds. (Image credit: NOAA/CIRA)
Human-caused climate change increased Hurricane Melissa’s wind speeds by 7% (11 mph, or 18 km/h), leading to a 12% increase in its damages, found researchers at the Imperial College of London in a rapid attribution study just released. A separate study by scientists at Climate Central found that climate change increased Melissa’s winds by 10%, and the near-record-warm ocean waters that Melissa traversed — 1.4 degrees Celsius (2.5°F) warmer than average — were up to 900 times more likely to be that warm because of human-caused climate change.
To study Melissa, the Imperial College of London researchers used the Imperial College Storm Model (IRIS). With the same model last year, the researchers found that climate change increased Hurricane Helene’s wind speeds at landfall by about 11% (13 mph or 21 km/h), and Hurricane Milton’s by 10% (11 mph or 18 km/h). These wind speed increases led to an increase in damage of 44% for Helene and 45% for Milton, they said. Melissa’s relatively low 12% increase in damage with 7% higher winds was so small, they said, because of hurricane of that intensity causes near-total destruction, and there isn’t much more to destroy if the winds increase.
They added that the analysis “likely underestimates the true cost of the hurricanes because it does not capture long-lasting economic impacts such as lost productivity and worsened health outcomes.”
2025 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #44
Posted on 2 November 2025 by BaerbelW, Doug Bostrom
Stories we promoted this week, by category:
Climate Law and Justice (4 articles)
- Trump and Republicans Join Big Oil`s All-Out Push to Shut Down Climate Liability Efforts Republican attorneys general, GOP lawmakers, industry groups and the president himself are all maneuvering to foreclose the ability of cities and states to hold the fossil fuel industry liable for damages linked to climate change. Inside Climate News, Dana Drugmand, Oct 26, 2025.
- Survivors of Philippines `Super Typhoon` Sue Oil Giant for Causing Climate Emergency The lawsuit centers on Philippine laws stating that citizens have the right to a healthy environment. Common Dreams, Brad Reed, Oct 27, 2025.
- Exxon sues California over climate laws, alleging free speech violations Oil firm asks court to block enforcement of laws that would require disclosure of planet-heating carbon emissions The Guardian, Dharna Noor, Oct 27, 2025.
- Climate change is a crisis of intergenerational justice. It's not too late to make it right The Conversation, Philippa Collin, Judith Bessant, Rob Watts, Oct 28, 2025.
Climate Policy and Politics (4 articles)
- An E.P.A. Plan to Kill a Major Climate Rule Is Worrying Business Leaders Some carmakers and energy executives say the plan would trigger costly litigation and spur individual states to create a patchwork of tighter rules. New York Times, Karen Zraick and Lisa Friedman, Oct 25, 2025.
- How Trump pressures the world into burning more oil and gas Los Angeles Times, Jennifer A. Dlouhy, Akshat Rathi, Oct 29, 2025.
- Ex-EPA head urges US to resist Trump attacks on climate action: `We won`t become numb` Expanded climate action from cities and states could slash planet-heating pollution despite Trump working against it The Guardian, Dharna Noor, Oct 30, 2025.
- The fall of the CBS News climate team David Ellison, the new pro-Trump chief executive of Paramount Skydance, has dismantled the best climate change reporting team in cable news. HEATED, Emily Atkin, Oct 31, 2025.
Climate Education and Communication (3 articles)
- Discover Climate LIVE K12 Sessions for 2025-2026 State of the Planet, Lylia Saurel, Oct 29, 2025.
- How The Visual Power Of Climate Denial Fuels The Spread Of Misinformation StudyFinds, Reviewed by John Anderer, Oct 29, 2025.
- The worst month of climate news in my entire career Youtube, Simon Clark, Oct 31, 2025.
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #43 2025
Posted on 30 October 2025 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
[画像:A desk piled high with research reports]
Hourly Precipitation Intensities at 4-km Resolution Show Statistically Significant Increasing Trends From 1991 to 2022 in the CONUS-404 Hydroclimate Reanalysis , Guilloteau et al., Geophysical Research Letters
Trends in hourly and daily precipitation statistics are studied using the CONUS-404 hydroclimate reanalysis at 4-km spatial resolution over the 1991–2022 period. Only a small fraction of CONUS shows statistically significant trends in the annual precipitation volume, number of wet days and mean wet-day intensity. Significant increasing trends are however found in the mean wet-hour precipitation intensity, with the trends being particularly pronounced in the Midwest. Fourier spectral analysis also attests for changes in the multiscale spatial and temporal organization of precipitation, and reveals that small-scale short-lived precipitation features have intensified at a higher rate than large-scale long-lived features. These results show that, even when no robust trend can be established from low-resolution data, clear trends may emerge at a higher resolution, demonstrating the need for high-resolution precipitation records for climate trend analysis.
Aviation passenger carbon footprint calculator with comprehensive emissions, life cycle coverage, and historical adjustment , McFall et al., Communications Earth & Environment
Passenger aviation carbon footprint calculators often lack breadth, accuracy, transparency, and communication effectiveness, leading to underestimations of environmental impact and mistrust. This study addresses these gaps by developing a comprehensive methodology that broadens scope and improves accuracy. It incorporates nitrogen oxides, water vapour, contrail-induced cloudiness, upstream emissions from in-flight services, and life cycle emissions from aircraft and airports, offering a complete carbon footprint assessment. Accuracy is improved through detailed modelling of flight distance, fuel consumption, and emissions allocation adjusted for passenger class, luggage, and cargo. Historical adjustment factors refine pre-flight estimates by integrating real-world variations. The tool outputs a full emissions breakdown by source, offering unparalleled granularity and clarity. Validated against over 30,000 historical flights, the historical adjustment factor model achieves ~0.5% mean squared percentage error and shows current methods underestimate emissions. This study sets a standard for aviation carbon footprint calculators by enabling transparent, dynamic assessments for industry stakeholders.
Multi-century global and regional sea-level rise commitments from cumulative greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades , Nauels et al., Nature Climate Change
Sea levels respond to climate change on timescales from decades to millennia. To isolate the sea-level contribution of historical and near-term GHG emissions, we use a dedicated scenario and modelling framework to quantify global and regional sea-level rise commitments of twenty-first century cumulative emissions. Under current climate policies, emissions until 2050 lock in 0.3 m (likely range 0.2–0.5 m) more global mean sea-level rise by 2300 than historical emissions until 2020. This additional commitment would grow to 0.8 m (0.5–1.4 m) for emissions until 2090, of which 0.6 m (0.4–1.1 m) could be avoided under very stringent mitigation. Resulting regional commitments would be around 10% higher than the global signal for the vulnerable Pacific region, mainly due to higher relative Antarctic contributions. Our work shows that multi-century sea-level rise commitments are strongly controlled by mitigation decisions in coming decades.
More than just facts: Countering climate mis-and-disinformation with critical thinking and empathy , Rabe & Paz, PLOS Climate
Simply presenting scientific facts is not enough to help students understand climate change and its complex impacts and solutions. Educators should teach students to critically evaluate climate change information and reflect on how their emotions, experiences, and pre-conceived ideas shape their perspectives. These elements of climate education are essential because students live in an information ecosystem where they may be exposed to mis-and-disinformation about climate change, often produced and disseminated by groups such as the fossil fuel lobby [1]. This mis-and-disinformation builds narratives that regularly find a foothold in individuals by connecting with their belief systems [2]. This dynamic may manifest itself in students that reject climate change-related instruction because it conflicts with their worldview. To counter the impact of this climate change mis-and-disinformation, we present several variably applicable teaching approaches educators can use when teaching their students about climate change. These approaches employ socioemotional learning, critical thinking exercises, and game-based learning to help students assess the accuracy of climate change information and realize how their lived experiences and values connect to the climate crisis. Each approach is highly adaptable and is meant to provide inspiration for new experimentation in countering or prebunking common climate change disinformation.
Drying of the Panama Canal in a Warming Climate , Muñoz et al., Geophysical Research Letters
The Panama Canal is essential to global trade, but its operation is vulnerable to drought. Recent droughts have raised concerns about how the reservoir that feeds the canal's locks, Gatún Lake, will respond to climate change. Using high-resolution climate projections, we simulate future lake levels and find that disruptive low water conditions become increasingly common under moderately high and high emissions scenarios, but not under low-emissions pathways. These changes are primarily driven by reduced wet-season rainfall, though the magnitude of future drying in Central America is uncertain. Our findings highlight the growing risk to one of the key links in the global supply chain and underscore the need for proactive adaptation or mitigation to maintain canal functionality.
From this week's government/NGO section:
Climate Inequality Report 2025. Climate Change: A Capital Challenge. Why Climate Policy Must Tackle Ownership, Lucas Chancel and Cornelia Mohren, editors, World Inequality Lab
Wealthy individuals fuel the climate crisis through their investments, even more than their consumption and lifestyles. At the world level, the top 1% represent 15% of global consumption-based emissions, while they account for 41% of global emissions associated with private capital ownership. Climate change can deepen wealth inequality, while well-designed policies can help reduce it. The top 1% could see their share of world wealth jump from 38% to 46% by 2050 if they own tomorrow’s low-carbon assets. To address the dual challenges of the climate crisis and wealth inequality, the authors explore three policies avenues including a global ban on new fossil fuel investments, a financial investment tax on the carbon content of assets, and major public investment in low-carbon infrastructure.
Climate Plunder: How a powerful few are locking the world into disaster, Dabi et al., Oxfam International
Ahead of the major international climate conference COP30 in Belem, Brazil, new research finds that the high-carbon lifestyles of the super-rich are blowing through the world’s remaining carbon budget - the amount of CO2 that can be emitted while avoiding climate disaster. The research also details how billionaires are using their political and economic influence to keep humanity hooked on fossil fuels to maximize their private profit. The authors present extensive new updated data and analysis which finds that a person from the richest 0.1% produces more carbon pollution in a day than the poorest 50% emit all year. If everyone emitted like the richest 0.1%, the carbon budget would be used up in less than 3 weeks.
114 articles in 58 journals by 842 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Is the cloud absorption of solar radiation still underestimated notably by current model-based reanalyses?, FU et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.202510003
Linking Atmospheric Waviness to Extreme Temperatures Across the Northern Hemisphere: Comparison of Different Waviness Metrics, Roocroft et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2024jd042631
Climate Adam - Can Solar Halt the Desert?
Posted on 29 October 2025 by Guest Author
This video includes personal musings and conclusions of the creator climate scientist Dr. Adam Levy. It is presented to our readers as an informed perspective. Please see video description for references (if any).
Video description
Solar power has become ridiculously cheap. And unbelievably powerful at tackling climate change. Today I discuss two of the most absolutely overpowered places we can build solar photovoltaics: reservoirs (floatovoltaics) and deserts. But the future of solar is so bright, that it's worth building even in less-than-ideal locations. Let's take a look at the sunny story of today's solar PV, and what that means for our climate!
Support ClimateAdam on patreon: https://patreon.com/climateadam
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Fact brief - Is there empirical evidence for human-caused global warming?
Posted on 28 October 2025 by Sue Bin Park
[画像:FactBrief]Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline.
Is there empirical evidence for human-caused global warming?
[画像:Yes]There are multiple lines of evidence that our greenhouse gas emissions are warming the planet.
The greenhouse effect is the process whereby “greenhouse” gases such as carbon dioxide create a kind of atmospheric blanket, absorbing outgoing heat energy and re-radiating a portion of it back down to Earth.
CO2 levels surged after humans began burning fossil fuels such as coal and oil. Today, we’re over 420 parts per million — up 50% from pre-industrial times and higher than for millions of years.
We know this increase is from burning fossil fuels, which produce a form of CO2 with extremely low levels of the carbon-14 isotope. The drop of carbon-14 in the atmosphere following the Industrial Revolution is a fossil fuel “fingerprint” of the CO2 spike.
Satellite measurements confirm a decrease in heat energy radiated out into space and an increase in heat energy re-radiated back down to Earth’s surface.
Go to full rebuttal on Skeptical Science or to the fact brief on Gigafact
This fact brief is responsive to quotes such as this one.
Sources
American Institute of Physics The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect
Columbia University Climate School How Exactly Does Carbon Dioxide Cause Global Warming?
NOAA The Basics: Isotopic Fingerprints
UC San Diego The Keeling Curve
Please use this form to provide feedback about this fact brief. This will help us to better gauge its impact and usability. Thank you!
A "controversial" methane metric?
Posted on 27 October 2025 by Ken Rice
This is a re-post from And Then There's Physics
There’s a recent Carbon Brief article about a supposedly controversial methane metric. The metric in question is GWP*, which I’ve actually written about before. Methane emissions are typically compared to CO2 using a metric known as Global Warming Potential (GWP). These are often measured over periods of 20 years (GWP20) or 100 years (GWP100). For methane GWP20 has a value of about 80, while GWP100 has a value of about 30.
As the Carbon Brief article says, these are often interpreted as suggesting that
one tonne of methane causes the same amount of warming as around 80 tonnes of CO2, when measured over a period of 20 years…….. When calculated over 100 years, methane’s shorter lifetime means it causes around 30 times more warming than CO2.
These metrics highlight that methane is a potent greenhouse gas that can contribute substantially to global warming. The problem is that the interpretation of these metrics is not actually correct. These metrics are computed by integrating the radiative forcing of a pulse of emissions over the relevant time period. However, this doesn’t necessarily correctly represent the warming due to this pulse of emission.
2025 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #43
Posted on 26 October 2025 by BaerbelW, Doug Bostrom
Stories we promoted this week, by category:
Climate Policy and Politics (8 articles)
- DeBriefed: Earth`s first `tipping point`; Climate adviser interview; How warming affects children`s health For those interested in keeping up with policy details of our climate blunder and how we're going to deal with it, we recommend Carbon Brief's weekly "Debrief" feature. Carbon Brief, Emma Hancox, Oct 17, 2025.
- US-led alliance wins a year`s delay in adoption of green shipping deal A landmark deal to clean up the global shipping industry’s emissions has been postponed for at least a year, after a successful campaign by the US and Saudi Arabia to delay its adoption. Climate Home News, Joe Lo, Oct 17, 2025.
- Corporate Climate Disclosures in the US and EU: An Expanding Regulatory Landscape Amidst Resistance Climate Law Blog, Pedro Aranguez Diaz, Oct 20, 2025.
- Climate-Warming Methane Emissions from the World`s Biggest Livestock Companies Are Bigger Than From Major Oil and Gas Companies Ahead of the United Nations climate talks in Brazil, advocacy groups are pushing for companies and governments to set meaningful emissions targets to lower emissions from livestock. Inside Climate News, Georgina Gustin, Oct 21, 2025.
- With climate change data disappearing, former NOAA scientists strike back ABC News, David Caulfield, Oct 21, 2025.
- The entire world was ready to reduce shipping emissions. Then Trump stepped in. After the Trump administration threatened countries with tariffs and visa restrictions, a first-ever global carbon tax is left to an uncertain future. Grist, Naveena Sadasivam, Oct 23, 2025.
- Trump knows climate change is real - that's why he wants to mine Greenland "Not only does Trump know climate change is real, he’s banking on it." TheHill, Allison Agsten, Oct 24, 2025.
- We led NOAA - we expect Neil Jacobs to defend it TheHill, Jane Lubchenco, Kathryn Sullivan and Richard Spinrad, opinion contributors, Oct 24, 2025.
Climate Change Impacts (7 articles)
- World`s oceans losing their greenness through global heating, study finds Researchers say decline in phytoplankton suggests weakened planetary capacity to absorb carbon dioxide The Guardian, Jonathan Watts, Oct 17, 2025.
- Europe's climate is changing fast: How it's affecting people and the economy The Conversation, Rosemary Anthony , Oct 20, 2025.
- Climate disasters in first half of 2025 costliest ever on record, research shows LA wildfires and storms this year cost 101ドルbn, new study by non-profit resurrecting work axed by Trump says The Guardian, Oliver Milman, and graphics by Andrew Witherspoon, Oct 22, 2025.
- This is a dangerous new climate reality Dr Gilbz on Youtube, Ella Gilbert, Oct 22, 2025.
- Researchers warn of the urgent need to include the cumulative effects of extreme climate events in penguin conservation Phys.org, Spanish National Research Council, Oct 23, 2025.
- Don't bet against physics Don't be surprised by short term fluctuations in Earth systems as the planet warms. In the long term, heat is hard to overcome. ReportEarth, Chris Mooney, Oct 23, 2025.
- Can the Deadliest Catch crab fishery survive warming seas? Warmer waters in the Bering Sea caused snow crabs to crash. Now, scientists are racing to predict the future of the lucrative fishery Science, Warren Cornwall, Oct 23, 2025.
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #43 2025
Posted on 23 October 2025 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
[画像:A desk piled high with research reports]
Transparency, reproducibility, and acknowledging uncertainty are meritorious attributes of science that differentiate it from other human endeavors, such as politics. But they can also be subverted. In the United States, an executive order from the Trump administration called Restoring Gold Standard Science illustrates how this can be achieved despite it being cloaked in language that most of the scientific community would enthusiastically support. The order seeks to “to ensure that federally funded research is transparent, rigorous, and impactful, and that Federal decisions are informed by the most credible, reliable, and impartial scientific evidence available,” and it has already informed the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) revised procedures for conducting risk evaluations for chemicals already in commerce.
Equatorial Atlantic mid-depth warming indicates Atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdown , Ren et al., Communications Earth & Environment
Based on ocean general circulation model (OGCM) experiments, we identify the mid-depth warming of 1000–2000 m in the equatorial Atlantic as a fingerprint of AMOC slowdown under anthropogenic warming. Subsurface downwelling signals of the declined AMOC propagate along the western boundary and across the equator as baroclinic Kelvin waves within one decade. Compared to surface proxies, the mid-depth equatorial temperature is a more reliable indicator for the AMOC intensity on decadal and longer timescales. The mid-depth warming in the equatorial Atlantic is also robustly detected in historical in situ observations, indicating that the AMOC already slowed down in the late 20th century.
A Risk-Risk Assessment of Climate Extremes: Comparing Greenhouse Gas Warming and Stratospheric Aerosol Injection in UKESM1 , Wells & Haywood, Earth's Future
This study investigates the potential of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI), a solar climate intervention strategy, to mitigate climate extremes driven by greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, comparing its effects to those of GHG-induced warming under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Using the UKESM1 climate model and the GeoMIP G6controller scenario, we examine extreme temperature, precipitation, and fire risk indices in a risk-risk framework. The multi-latitude G6controller strategy, an improvement on the equatorial injection strategy G6sulfur, reduces global mean temperature from SSP5-8.5 to SSP2-4.5, significantly reducing temperature and precipitation extremes. Results show that G6controller effectively reduces temperature extremes relative to SSP5-8.5, especially in populated areas like Europe and South America, and reduces fire risk in high-risk areas, such as South America and southern Africa. While both scenarios project broad precipitation increases, G6controller moderates these without introducing new drying relative to SSP5-8.5, particularly in Southeast Asia. This study highlights G6controller's potential to lessen the magnitude of extreme climate events, offering insights into SAI's regional efficacy and highlighting the trade-offs between GHG warming with and without solar climate intervention.
Africa’s regional and local climate response to stratospheric aerosol injection characteristics , Kumi et al., Frontiers in Climate
Using climate simulations, this study assesses the potential impact of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) on projected mean and extreme temperature and precipitation across the continent. We analysed data from the Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Large Ensemble (GLENS) project, which simulates a set of SAI experiments under RCP8.5 emission scenarios with SO2 injection into the tropical stratosphere at 22.8–25?km altitude (GLENS) and around 1?km above the tropopause (GLENS_low) and near the equator at around 20–25?km above ground (GLENS_eq). The results show that all SAI experiments (GLENS, GLENS_eq, and GLENS_low) exhibit substantial cooling effects, with GLENS_eq emerging as the most effective in reducing temperature extremes, particularly over Central and Southern Africa. However, despite successfully offsetting much of the RCP8.5-induced warming, the effectiveness of SAI varies across regions, leaving some regions, such as the Sahel and North Africa, with residual warming. In addition to its cooling effects, SAI could significantly alter precipitation patterns, introducing widespread drying and thereby reducing flood risks across the continent. While SAI could offset the projected increase in extreme precipitation under RCP8.5, it could simultaneously exacerbate drying trends over Central, Southern, and Northern Africa. These findings highlight critical trade-offs associated with SAI deployment, particularly for regions where agriculture and water resources depend heavily on rainfall, underscoring the need for regionally optimised geoengineering strategies that balance temperature moderation with hydrological stability. This study provides the first comparative analysis of tropical, equatorial, and low-altitude SAI impacts on the climate, revealing critical trade-offs for precipitation-dependent regions. The findings presented here are, however, specific to the SAI scenarios analysed (GLENS experiments), as a different SAI deployment scenario would lead to different conclusions.
Subtraction neglect in perceptions of climate action strategies , Suter et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology
Research suggests that individuals often overlook beneficial subtractive strategies when solving problems. Subtractive strategies, which include reducing demand for goods and services (e.g., reducing car use), have a high climate mitigation potential. Yet, these may be systematically overlooked in favor of additive strategies like adopting new technologies (e.g., buying an electric car). This Registered Report investigates subtraction neglect in the context of personal climate action. When asked to think of the most effective personal climate mitigation actions, does priming people to think about additive and subtractive strategies increase the likelihood that they suggest subtractive climate actions? We investigate this research question via an online experiment conducted in the United Kingdom. Participants who received a brief prompt introducing both strategy types proposed significantly more subtractive actions than those who were not made aware of additive and subtractive strategies. The findings suggest that raising awareness of subtractive strategies can shift attention toward underused yet impactful climate actions.
From this week's government/NGO section:
Greenhouse Gas Bulletin - No. 21, World Meteorological Organization
The levels of the three most abundant long-lived greenhouse gases (LLGHGs), carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), reached new records in 2024. From 2023 to 2024, CO2 in the global surface atmosphere increased by 3.5 ppm,(1) the largest one-year increase since modern measurements began in 1957. This increase was driven by continued fossil CO2 emissions, enhanced fire emissions and reduced terrestrial/ocean sinks in 2024, which could signal a climate feedback. Given the dominant role of increasing atmospheric CO2 in global climate change, achieving net-zero anthropogenic CO2 emissions must be the focus of climate action. Sustaining and expanding greenhouse gas monitoring is critical to supporting such efforts.
State of Climate Action 2025, Schumer et al., World Resources Institute
Published ahead of COP30, the authors translates the Paris Agreement temperature goal into actionable targets for 2030, 2035 and 2050 across the world’s highest-emitting sectors – power, buildings, industry, transport, forests and land, and food and agriculture – as well as specifies how quickly technological carbon dioxide and climate finance must scale up. The authors then assess recent progress made towards these global benchmarks, highlighting where – and by how much – efforts must accelerate this decade. The authors found that, while the 10 years following the adoption of the Paris Agreement have seen the transition to net-zero emissions take off, there’s still a long way to go. Across every single sector, climate action has failed to materialize at the pace and scale required to achieve the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal. None of the 45 indicators assessed are on track to reach their 1.5°C-aligned targets by the end of this decade.
125 articles in 54 journals by 755 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Equatorial Atlantic mid-depth warming indicates Atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdown, Ren et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02793-1
Impact of Cold Wakes on Tropical Cyclone Rainfall under Global Warming, Chen et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0104.1
New Book - Climate Obstruction: A global Assessment
Posted on 22 October 2025 by BaerbelW
Climate Obstruction: A Global Assessment is a new book from Brown University’s global Climate Social Science Network, for which a team of more than 100 scholars explored who’s blocking action on climate change and how they’re doing it. John Cook - founder of Skeptical Science and senior research fellow with the Melbourne Centre for Behaviour Change at the University of Melbourne - co-authored chapter 7 in the book titled "Understanding the Political and Psychological Roots of Climate Misinformation and Its Impact on Public Opinion". The book is available open access for download from the Climate Social Science Network.
The book
In addition to an introduction by the editors J. Timmons Roberts, Carlos R. S. Milani, Jennifer Jacquet, and Christian Downie the book contains 12 chapters exploring the many different shapes and forms climate obstruction takes around the globe:
- The Global Role of the Oil and Gas Industry in Climate Delay and Denial - Lead Authors: Geoff Dembicki, Kristoffer Ekberg, and Kert Davies / Contributing Authors: Ann-Kristin Bergquist, Ada Nissen, and Stella Levantesi
- How Coal, Utilities, and Transportation Impede Climate Action - Lead Authors: Jen Schneider and Gregory Trencher / Contributing Authors: Peter K. Bsumek, Christian Downie, Paul K. Gellert, Giulio Mattioli, Jason Monios, Peter Newell, Jennifer Peeples, Joeri Wesseling, Emily Williams, Ryan Wishart, and Ben Youriev
- The Animal Agriculture Industry’s Role in Obstructing Climate Action - Lead Authors: Kathrin Lauber and Viveca Morris / Contributing Authors: Jennifer Jacquet, Peter Li, Ina Möller, Silvia Secchi, Alex Wijeratna, and Melina De Bona
- Climate Policy Obstruction on the Right and the Far Right - Lead Authors: Dieter Plehwe and Justin Farrell / Contributing Authors: Lucas Araldi, Robert J. Brulle, Jesse Callahan Bryant, William Callison, Kert Davies, Ruth E. McKie, Sotiris Mitralexis, and Alexandru Racu
- Steering the Climate Discourse: Legacy News, Social Media, Advertising, and Public Relations - Lead Authors: Melissa Aronczyk and Maxwell Boykoff / Contributing Authors: Travis G. Coan, Myanna Lahsen, Hanna E. Morris, and Chris Russill
- Understanding the Political and Psychological Roots of Climate Misinformation and Its Impact on Public Opinion - Lead Authors: Dominik A. Stecula and John Cook / Contributing Authors: Arunima Krishna, Adrian Dominik Wójcik, Jean Carlos Hochsprung Miguel, Matthew Hornsey, and Salil Benegal
- Climate Obstruction Across the Global South - Lead Authors: M. Omar Faruque and Ruth E. McKie / Contributing Authors: Lucas G. Christel, Claire Debucquois, Guy Edwards, Paul K. Gellert, Ricardo A. Gutierrez, Kathryn Hochstetler, Yifei Li, Carlos R. S. Milani, Elisabeth Möhle, Oluwaseun J. Oguntuase, and Jonathan R. Walz
- Blocking Climate Action at Subnational Levels - Lead Authors: Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo, Joshua A. Basseches, and Marcela López-Vallejo / Contributing Authors: Lucas G. Christel, Andrew B. Kirkpatrick, Simone Lucatello, and Maria Isabel Santos Lima
- Obstruction in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - Lead Authors: Kari De Pryck and Eduardo Viola / Contributing Authors: Stefan C. Aykut, Larissa Basso, Danielle Falzon, Matías Franchini, Friederike Hartz, Hannah Hughes, Vinícius Mendes, Carlos R. S. Milani, Bruna Bosi Moreira, Géraldine Pflieger, and Emanuel Semedo
- Obstructing Global and Local Climate Change Adaptation - Lead Authors: Laura Kuhl and Stacy-ann Robinson / Contributing Authors: Natalie Dietrich Jones, Danielle Falzon, Andrew Malmuth, Michael Mikulewicz, Meg Mills-Novoa, Michelle Mycoo, Meg Parsons, M. Feisal Rahman, E. Lisa F. Schipper, Kimberley Anh Thomas, and Edward Walker
- Legal and State Efforts to Address Climate Obstruction - Lead Authors: Grace Nosek, Joana Setzer, and Benjamin Franta / Contributing Authors: Alyssa Johl, Lisa Benjamin, Sharon Yadin, William W. Buzbee, and Aria Kovalovich
- Confronting Climate Obstruction: The Role of Civil Society and Non–State Actors - Lead Authors: Jennie C. Stephens and Sharon Yadin / Contributing Authors: Laurence L. Delina, Louise M. Fitzgerald, Francisco Garcia-Gibson, Fergus Green, Noel Healy, David Hess, Tariro Kamuti, Cristiana Losekann, David Michaels, Sonja Solomun, and Robin Tschoetschel
50 fact briefs published in collaboration with Gigafact!
Posted on 21 October 2025 by BaerbelW
In April 2024 we announced the (renewed) collaboration between Gigafact and Skeptical Science to create fact briefs, short but credibly sourced summaries that offer “yes/no” answers in response to claims found online. Initially, we published new fact briefs on Saturdays, but switched to Tuesdays earlier this year and while we try to have a new fact brief out each week, we sometimes miss a week due to time constraints and vacations. Regardless of that, we published fact brief #50 - Are humans responsible for climate change? - on September 30, 2025 and thought that this little milestone might make for a good reason to write a short blog post about the current status of this project.
From what we can tell, these bite-sized explanations are still useful to people - at least they collect quite some likes and get shared on various social media platforms once we put up a post there. Another intriguing aspect of this collaboration with Gigafact is, that we are part of their network of news outlets and some of our fact briefs have for example been republished by Wisconsin Watch among their own fact briefs!
India’s power-sector CO2 falls for only second time in half a century
Posted on 20 October 2025 by Guest Author
This is a re-post from Carbon Brief
India’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from its power sector fell by 1% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 and by 0.2% over the past 12 months, only the second drop in almost half a century.
As a result, India’s CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and cement grew at their slowest rate in the first half of the year since 2001 – excluding Covid – according to new analysis for Carbon Brief.
The analysis is the first of a regular new series covering India’s CO2 emissions, based on monthly data for fuel use, industrial production and power output, compiled from numerous official sources.
(See the regular series on China’s CO2 emissions, which began in 2019.)
Other key findings on India for the first six months of 2025 include:
- The growth in clean-energy capacity reached a record 25.1 gigawatts (GW), up 69% year-on-year from what had, itself, been a record figure.
- This new clean-energy capacity is expected to generate nearly 50 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity per year, nearly sufficient to meet the average increase in demand overall.
- Slower economic expansion meant there was zero growth in demand for oil products, a marked fall from annual rates of 6% in 2023 and 4% in 2024.
- Government infrastructure spending helped accelerate CO2 emissions growth from steel and cement production, by 7% and 10%, respectively.
- Analysis: Record solar growth keeps China’s CO2 falling in first half of 2025
- Analysis: Clean energy just put China’s CO2 emissions into reverse for first time
- Analysis: Clean energy contributed a record 10% of China’s GDP in 2024
- Analysis: Record surge of clean energy in 2024 halts China’s CO2 rise
The analysis also shows that emissions from India’s power sector could peak before 2030, if clean-energy capacity and electricity demand grow as expected.
The future of CO2 emissions in India is a key indicator for the world, with the country – the world’s most populous – having contributed nearly two-fifths of the rise in global energy-sector emissions growth since 2019.
India’s surging emissions slow down
In 2024, India was responsible for 8% of global energy-sector CO2 emissions, despite being home to 18% of the world’s population, as its per-capita output is far below the world average.
However, emissions have been growing rapidly, as shown in the figure below.
The country contributed 31% of global energy-sector emissions growth in the decade to 2024, rising to 37% in the past five years, due to a surge in the three-year period from 2021-23.
[画像:Chart showing that India accounts for nearly two-fifths of global CO2 emissions growth since 2019]India’s CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and cement, million tonnes of CO2, rolling 12-month totals. Source: Analysis for Carbon Brief by CREA. (See: About the data.)
THE ESCALATOR
(free to republish)