PIAHS

Volume 374, 2016 | Water Resources Assessment and Seasonal Prediction

International Conference Water Resources Assessment and Seasonal Prediction, Koblenz, Germany, 13–16 October 2015
Editor(s): W. Grabs and S. Demuth

Volume 374, 2016 | Water Resources Assessment and Seasonal Prediction

International Conference Water Resources Assessment and Seasonal Prediction, Koblenz, Germany, 13–16 October 2015
Editor(s): W. Grabs and S. Demuth
17 Oct 2016
Preface: International conference: Water Resources Assessment and Seasonal Prediction
Wolfgang Grabs and Siegfried Demuth
Proc. IAHS, 374, 1–1, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-1-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-1-2016, 2016
Water diplomacy – means of developing good neighborhood relations
17 Oct 2016
A regional approach to climate adaptation in the Nile Basin
Michael B. Butts, Carlo Buontempo, Jens K. Lørup, Karina Williams, Camilla Mathison, Oluf Z. Jessen, Niels D. Riegels, Paul Glennie, Carol McSweeney, Mark Wilson, Richard Jones, and Abdulkarim H. Seid
Proc. IAHS, 374, 3–7, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-3-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-3-2016, 2016
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The Nile Basin is one of the most important shared basins in Africa. Managing it's water resources, now and in the future, must not only address different water uses but also the trade-off between developments upstream and water use downstream, often between different countries. This paper presents a methodology, to support climate adaptation on a regional scale, for assessing climate change impacts and adaptation potential for floods, droughts and water scarcity within this basin.
17 Oct 2016
Developing new scenarios for water allocation negotiations: a case study of the Euphrates River Basin
Mohammad Reza Jarkeh, Ameneh Mianabadi, and Hojjat Mianabadi
Proc. IAHS, 374, 9–15, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-9-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-9-2016, 2016
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In this paper we established a new method to choose the most appropriate allocating rule which seems to be more equitable and reasonable than other allocation rules to satisfy the riparian countries. To evaluate this new proposed method, we applied seven Classical Bankruptcy Rules (CBRs) and four Sequential Sharing Rules (SSRs) in allocating the Euphrates River water among three riparian countries: Turkey, Syria and Iraq.
17 Oct 2016
Post conflict water management: learning from the past for recovery planning in the Orontes River basin
Myriam Saadé-Sbeih, François Zwahlen, Ahmed Haj Asaad, Raoul Gonzalez, and Ronald Jaubert
Proc. IAHS, 374, 17–21, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-17-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-17-2016, 2016
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Water management is a fundamental issue in post-conflict planning in Syria. Based on historical water balance assessment, this study identifies the drivers of the profound changes that took place in the Lebanese and Syrian parts of the Orontes River basin since the 1930s. Both drastic effects of the conflict on the hydro-system and the strong uncontrolled anthropization of the river basin prior to the crisis have to be considered in the design of recovery interventions.
17 Oct 2016
To what extent do they sway Australian water management decision making?
Maureen Papas
Proc. IAHS, 374, 23–28, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-23-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-23-2016, 2016
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The reliability of freshwater resources has become highly unpredictable as consequences of climate change and increasingly frequent droughts. The role of science in decision-making points to the need to constantly improve our capabilities to forecast the availability of seasonal water. While science has a fundamental role to play in effective water resources management, the reality on the ground often diverges from the intended aim and does not always reflect efforts at reform.
Data and observations as a basis for conducting water balances
17 Oct 2016
The new portfolio of global precipitation data products of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre suitable to assess and quantify the global water cycle and resources
Udo Schneider, Markus Ziese, Anja Meyer-Christoffer, Peter Finger, Elke Rustemeier, and Andreas Becker
Proc. IAHS, 374, 29–34, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-29-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-29-2016, 2016
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The Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) operated by Deutscher Wetterdienst since 1989 provides reliable information on monthly and daily precipitatation since 1901 and 1988, respectively. The information is provided as DOI referenced data sets and we provide herewith an overview and orientation which product is most suitable for a number of archetype use cases. We also provide some illustration on particular use cases. The GPCC data product will be further upgraded and prolongued.
17 Oct 2016
Rainfall as proxy for evapotranspiration predictions
Bruno Collischonn and Walter Collischonn
Proc. IAHS, 374, 35–40, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-35-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-35-2016, 2016
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Hydrometerologial data in Brazil is becoming increasingly more accessible in recent years, but data gaps still exist in many regions. In our work, we tested some statistical ways to explore the existing data and fill gaps in evaporation estimates, based on the assumption that evaporation and precipitation are inversely related. This could be useful for extending evaporation series into the past, for example for hydropower reservoir planning and flow forecast.
Drivers of change: changes in the elements of the water cycle and the water balance at global and regional levels
17 Oct 2016
Crystal balls into the future: are global circulation and water balance models ready?
Balázs M. Fekete, Giovanna Pisacane, and Dominik Wisser
Proc. IAHS, 374, 41–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-41-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-41-2016, 2016
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Variabilities and changes due to natural and anthropogenic causes in the water cycle always presented a challenge for water management planning. Practitioners traditionally coped with variabilities in the hydrological processes by assuming stationarity. Recently, this practice was questioned and more reliance on Global Circulation Models was put forward as an alternative. This paper takes a brief assessment of the state of Global Circulation Models (GCM) and their applications.
17 Oct 2016
Impact of climate forcing uncertainty and human water use on global and continental water balance components
Hannes Müller Schmied, Linda Adam, Stephanie Eisner, Gabriel Fink, Martina Flörke, Hyungjun Kim, Taikan Oki, Felix Theodor Portmann, Robert Reinecke, Claudia Riedel, Qi Song, Jing Zhang, and Petra Döll
Proc. IAHS, 374, 53–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-53-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-53-2016, 2016
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We analyzed simulated water balance components on global and continental scale as impacted by the uncertainty of climate forcing datasets. On average, around 62 % of precipitation on global land area evapotranspires and 38 % is discharge to oceans and inland sinks. Human water use increased during the 20th century by a factor of 5. Uncertainty of precipitation variable has most impact on model results, followed by shortwave downward radiation. Model calibration reduces this uncertainty.
17 Oct 2016
Impact of climate change and anthropogenic pressure on the water resources of India: challenges in management
K. Shadananan Nair
Proc. IAHS, 374, 63–67, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-63-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-63-2016, 2016
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The paper assesses the impact of climate change and anthropogenic pressure on the water resources of India and its reflections on different sectors. Changes in water availability in two decades from now under an altered climate have been estimated using hydrological model, based on the projections from climate models. Existing policies and adaptation strategies have been critically reviewed to suggest guidelines for adaptation and mitigation measures in the water sector.
Scientific and methodological approaches for water resources assessments
17 Oct 2016
Integrated water resource assessment for the Adelaide region, South Australia
James W. Cox, Michele Akeroyd, and Danielle P. Oliver
Proc. IAHS, 374, 69–73, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-69-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-69-2016, 2016
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Water research is one of South Australia's (SA's) highest priorities. Focus on water research became more critical during a drought that occurred between 1997 and 2011. Increased concern about water security for regional communities, industry and the environment led to the SA government establishing the Goyder Institute for Water Research to undertake cutting-edge science to inform the development of innovative integrated water management strategies to ensure SA's ongoing water security.
17 Oct 2016
Water resources of the Russian rivers and their changes
Mikhail Georgievsky
Proc. IAHS, 374, 75–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-75-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-75-2016, 2016
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This paper is a review of the recent investigations related to changes in river water resources of the Russian Federation performed at the State Hydrological Institute (SHI). The long-term water resources fluctuations and their changes during the last decades including the significant changes in seasonal runoff are presented. The preliminary estimates of the possible future changes are also given.
17 Oct 2016
Water resources assessment and prediction in China
Wang Guangsheng, Dai Ning, Yang Jianqing, and Wang Jinxing
Proc. IAHS, 374, 79–84, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-79-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-79-2016, 2016
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Water resources assessment in China can be classified as: comprehensive water resources assessment, annual water resources assessment, and industrial project water resources assessment. For the water resources prediction in China usually the monthly runoff prediction is used, in most low flow seasons, the flow recession curve is commonly used, in the humid regions the rainfall-runoff ensemble prediction has been widely applied, the conditional probability method was also applied.
17 Oct 2016
A tentative discussion on the monitoring of water resources in China
Yang Jianqing, Dai Ning, Wu Mengying, and Wang Guangsheng
Proc. IAHS, 374, 85–91, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-85-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-85-2016, 2016
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This paper is based on a project of Hydrometric Network Planning on Interprovincial Boundary River Sections through investigation and analysis of current hydrometric network, where, monitoring capability of the natural water cycle and water consumptions are analyzed, monitoring methodologies are summed up. Hydrological stations on interprovincial boundary waters are set up to meet the need of administrative water resources management.
17 Oct 2016
Conjunctive operation of river facilities for integrated water resources management in Korea
Hwirin Kim, Cheolhee Jang, and Sung Kim
Proc. IAHS, 374, 93–99, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-93-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-93-2016, 2016
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This has been pursued to enable everyone to enjoy the benefits inherent to the utilization of water resources, by preserving functional rivers, improving their utility and reducing the degradation of water quality caused by floods and droughts. At the same time, coordinated activities are being conducted in multi-purpose dams, hydro-power dams, weirs, agricultural reservoirs and water use facilities with the purpose of monitoring the managemet of such facilities.
17 Oct 2016
Development and implementation of a monitoring and information system to increase water use efficiency in arid and semi-arid areas in Limarí, Central Chile (WEIN)
Erich Berger, David Balmert, and Jürgen Richter
Proc. IAHS, 374, 101–104, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-101-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-101-2016, 2016
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In the scope of the BMBF funded project "WEIN", an integrated system for analysis, monitoring and information at river basin level was developed, which provides relevant information for all stakeholders that are concerned with water resource issues. The main objective was to improve water use efficiency and hence guarantee a sustainable agricultural production. The pilot region, in which this desktop and web-based system was implemented, is the semi-arid Limarí basin in Northern Central Chile.
Capability of countries to conduct water resources assessments (case studies)
17 Oct 2016
Construction and evaluation of a Toolbox for the formulation of the Hydrologic component of the Basin Management Plans in Colombia
Victor H. Garzón, Ricardo Garzón, Pedro M. Avellaneda, Erasmo A. Rodríguez, and Leonardo Alfonso
Proc. IAHS, 374, 105–112, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-105-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-105-2016, 2016
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HidroCHEP is a toolbox which supports the formulation and hydrologic characterization of Colombian basins. In this paper, we report the design, architecture, implementation and use of the toolbox, to understand the climatic variability of the country and to improve predictions in ungauged basins. It is demonstrated that the toolbox has the potential to support the formulation of basin management plans in the country and to contribute to integrated national water resources management.
17 Oct 2016
Hydrology and water resources in Caspian Sea
Kourosh Haddadi Moghaddam
Proc. IAHS, 374, 113–116, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-113-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-113-2016, 2016
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Precipitation is the main driver of variability of the water balance over space and time, and changes in precipitation have very important implications for hydrology and water resources. Variations in precipitation over daily, seasonal, annual, and decadal timescales influence hydrological variability over time in a catchment. Flood frequency is affected by changes in the year-to-year variability in precipitation and by changes in short-term rainfall properties.
17 Oct 2016
Development of seasonal flow outlook model for Ganges-Brahmaputra Basins in Bangladesh
Sazzad Hossain, Raihanul Haque Khan, Dilip Kumar Gautum, Ripon Karmaker, and Amirul Hossain
Proc. IAHS, 374, 117–121, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-117-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-117-2016, 2016
17 Oct 2016
East African wetland-catchment data base for sustainable wetland management
Constanze Leemhuis, Esther Amler, Bernd Diekkrüger, Geofrey Gabiri, and Kristian Näschen
Proc. IAHS, 374, 123–128, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-123-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-123-2016, 2016
17 Oct 2016
The relationship between irrigation water demand and drought in the Yellow River basin
Yu Wang, Weihao Wang, Shaoming Peng, Guiqin Jiang, and Jian Wu
Proc. IAHS, 374, 129–136, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-129-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-129-2016, 2016
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In order to organize water for drought resistance reasonably, We chose eight typical irrigation districts in Yellow River basin as research area. The results showed that the reconnaissance drought index (RDI) can be applied to evaluate the meteorological drought in the typical irrigation districts. There is significant correlation between the irrigation water demand and RDI, and the grey correlation degree and correlation coefficient increased with increasing crops available effective rainfall.
Seasonal forecasting strategies and methodologies for climate and water
17 Oct 2016
Seasonal forecast of Kharif flows from Upper Jhelum catchment
Wolfgang Bogacki and M. Fraz Ismail
Proc. IAHS, 374, 137–142, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-137-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-137-2016, 2016
17 Oct 2016
A snow and ice melt seasonal prediction modelling system for Alpine reservoirs
Kristian Förster, Felix Oesterle, Florian Hanzer, Johannes Schöber, Matthias Huttenlau, and Ulrich Strasser
Proc. IAHS, 374, 143–150, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-143-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-143-2016, 2016
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We present first results of a coupled seasonal prediction modelling system that runs at monthly time steps for a small catchment in the Austrian Alps. Meteorological forecasts are obtained from the CFSv2 model which are downscaled to the Alpine Water balance And Runoff Estimation model AWARE. Initial conditions are obtained using the physically based, hydro-climatological snow model AMUNDSEN. In this way, ensemble simulations of the coupled model are compared to observations.
17 Oct 2016
Assessment of water resources and seasonal prediction of rainfall in India
P. R. Rakhecha
Proc. IAHS, 374, 151–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-151-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-151-2016, 2016
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From the analysis of rainfall data available at about 5000 stations, this paper is prepared to provide comprehensive assessment of water availability in different states of India as well as for the country as a whole.
17 Oct 2016
Comparison of cross-validation and bootstrap aggregating for building a seasonal streamflow forecast model
Simon Schick, Ole Rössler, and Rolf Weingartner
Proc. IAHS, 374, 159–163, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-159-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-159-2016, 2016
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In water resources management, planning at the seasonal time scale is confronted with large uncertainties. Key variables are often unknown or hard to forecast, e.g. precipitation of the next three months. In the present study, we try to highlight some aspects concerning the development of a model faced with these uncertainties. Using the example of statistical streamflow forecasts, the results of the study indicate that the forecast accuracy is improved by the combination of several models.
17 Oct 2016
Investigation of hydrological variability in the Korean Peninsula with the ENSO teleconnections
Sunkwon Yoon and Taesam Lee
Proc. IAHS, 374, 165–173, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-165-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-165-2016, 2016
Water quality assessments and forecasting of water quality
17 Oct 2016
Development of an integrated method for long-term water quality prediction using seasonal climate forecast
Jaepil Cho, Chang-Min Shin, Hwan-Kyu Choi, Kyong-Hyeon Kim, and Ji-Yong Choi
Proc. IAHS, 374, 175–185, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-175-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-175-2016, 2016
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An integrated approach for water quality prediction was presented. Four different downscaling methods, in accordance with the degree of utilizing the seasonal climate prediction information, were developed in order to improve predictability and to refine the spatial scale. Then, a sampling-based temporal downscaling was conducted in order to create daily weather inputs to the SWAT model. Finally, modeling-based predictability was evaluated by using 3-month lead prediction data using SWAT.
17 Oct 2016
River water quality modelling under drought situations – the Turia River case
Javier Paredes-Arquiola, Javier Macián, María Pedro-Monzonís, Edgar Belda, Andrea Momblanch, and Joaquín Andreu
Proc. IAHS, 374, 187–192, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-187-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-187-2016, 2016
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One of the most common problems during drought conditions is maintaining a good water quality while securing the water supply to demands. This research analyses the case of the Turia River Water Resource System located in Eastern Spain. As a result, during drought conditions concentrations of pathogens and other contaminants increase, compromising the water supply to Valencia City. In order to define possible solutions for the above-mentioned problem, we have developed an integrated model.
17 Oct 2016
Decadal oscillations of the aquatic chemistry of river waters in Latvia
Dmitry Porshnov and Maris Klavins
Proc. IAHS, 374, 193–199, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-193-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-193-2016, 2016
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Long term (1980–2012) results of hydrochemical monitoring, performed in rivers of Latvia, are analysed during this study in connection with long-term sets of hydrological and heliophysical data. Our results indicate that variation of some hydrochemical values, for example COD and total Fe, show clearly visible decadal oscillated character, while variation of some other values, for example phosphate P and total P, show some individual characteristics of decadal oscillations.
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