摘要:
气候变化深刻影响着青藏高原的自然环境与牧民生计。近年来,中国国家公园的发展和建设在气候变化的减缓和适应方面发挥着重要作用。基于2017—2021年青藏高原地区的三江源国家公园、祁连山国家公园及周边社区318份牧民入户调查数据,分析了牧民对气候变化的感知特征及其适应行为,结果表明:1)自然资本在草地资源、多元生计选择等方面整体促进牧民适应;2)牧民普遍观察到冬季气温升高、降水格局不均、雪线上升等现象,与气象监测数据一致;3)草场补贴较高的牧民及女性牧民更倾向于采取适应措施,生计多样化(如自然体验服务等)已成为关键适应策略。研究提出国家公园应支持社区管理和恢复草场、引导可持续生计发展及多方协作加强自然资本,从而提升牧民应对气候的韧性。
投稿时间:2025年07月08日修订日期:2025年08月03日
基金项目:国家自然科学基金地方科学基金项目(32360332)
Natural Capital and Pastoral Climate Perception and Adaptation: An Empirical Study on Herders' Adaptation Strategies in and around the National Parks on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau
SHI Xiangying,,ZHAO Xiang,,CHEN Xier,,ZHU Ziyun,,XU Jintao*
Abstract:
Climate change is profoundly reshaping the natural environment and
pastoral livelihoods on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. In recent years, the development
and establishment of China's national parks have played a significant role in both
mitigating and adapting to climate change. This study examines the role of natural
capital in shaping herders' climate adaptation strategies, drawing on 318 household
surveys (2017-2021) across pastoral regions of the Three-River-Source Area, Qilian
Mountains, Xizang, and Yunnan, supplemented by meteorological data. Results
indicate that natural capital, manifested in grassland quality, diversified livelihood
options, and higher subsidy levels, systematically enhances adaption capacity.
Herders' climate perceptions (e.g., warmer winters, erratic precipitation, receding
snowlines, and diminished runoff) align closely with observational data. Probit models
identify heightened climate sensitivity among herders at higher elevations, those
facing volatile precipitation/temperature regimes, with higher grassland qualities and
more livestock, older individuals, Mandarin speakers, and less-educated households.
Adaption actions are more prevalent among subsidy-receiving and female herders,
with livelihood diversification (Eco-tourism, ranger employment, and other off-farm
income) proving particularly effective in reducing climate-dependent pastoral income.
Infrastructure upgrades (fodder reserves, livestock shelters) further bolster resilience.
Based on these findings, the study proposes that national parks should strengthen
natural capital through community-based rangeland restoration and management,
promotion of sustainable community livelihoods and multi-stakeholder collaboration
(government, communities, and social organizations) to systematically enhance
herders' climate resilience.