The Hot Hand in Sports

I finally have everything together regarding the consecutive made free-throw streaks of BYU's Tyler Haws and Jimmer Fredette. Now, at the conclusion of the Cougars' 99-92 double-OT win over Florida in men's first-round action, here is where things stand. According to these BYU post-game notes:

Fredette ended his free throw streak at 37, two short of the mark he set earlier this season. Fredette hit 21 against TCU, all 12 of his attempts versus UNLV, and 4-of-4 against Florida before missing...

Tyler Haws has converted 42 free throws in a row, passing Jimmer Fredette’s record of 39 set earlier this season as the longest in BYU history. The freshman forward has been perfect from the line after hitting his last five against Colorado State, going 10-of-10 at Wyoming, 8-of-8 against SDSU, 5-of-5 against New Mexico, 4-of-4 at Utah, 6-of-6 versus TCU and 4-of-4 against Florida.

When Purdue called time-out with 4:33 remaining in the first half of its Big 10 men's tournament game against Minnesota Saturday, the Boilermakers had scored only four points (to the Golden Gophers' 26). How does a highly regarded team -- Purdue came in having won 13 of its last 14 -- score only four points in over 15 minutes of play?

I have listed Purdue's offensive sequences in tabular form below, based on the play-by-play sheet for the game. At the top of each column is the outcome of a possession (e.g., missed layup or dunk; missed other two-point shot). When you see a time listed in a particular category, that's when an instance of that outcome occurred. You can click on the graphic to enlarge it.


Overall, Purdue went 2-of-20 on field-goal attempts. One factor that can contribute to a shooting slump is that a team panics while falling behind and jacks up a bunch of desperation three-point attempts to try to get back in the game quickly. The Boilermakers tried some treys, to be sure, but it doesn't look like they went on an all-out barrage from behind the arc.

Two other factors seemed to contribute to Purdue's scoring drought. First, the Boilers had no midrange game (i.e., ability to shoot two-pointers beyond layup range), missing 12 such shots. Second, Purdue didn't seem to attack the basket much, with only two layup attempts (one made and one missed) and two free-throw opportunities (both missed).

Throw in late February's season-ending ACL injury to key player Robbie Hummel and one can see why Purdue would be having difficulties. The Boilermakers will have to make some quick adjustments to be able to do well in the upcoming NCAA tournament.

The University of Nebraska women's basketball team, a perfect 30-0 for the season entering today's Big 12 tournament game against Texas A&M, fell to the Aggies, 80-70. Until this season, the Cornhuskers had never been a major factor in women's hoops in the tough Big 12, which features former NCAA champions Baylor, Texas, and Texas Tech, along with other strong programs such as Oklahoma. Nebraska can still recover and do well in the NCAA tournament, but its long winning streak is over.

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Two quick developments from Friday's men's conference tournaments:

Wisconsin's Trevon Hughes made three three-pointers in a 32-second span near the end of the game, but they were not enough to rescue the Badgers against Illinois in Big 10 play.

Kansas used a 21-2 run to pull away from Texas A&M in the Big 12 tourney.

With tonight's 59-44 UConn victory over Notre Dame in the Big East tournament semifinals, the Huskies have now set an NCAA Division I women's basketball record for longest winning streak, with 71 straight wins. Connecticut went 39-0 in the 2008-09 season and are 32-0 (thus far) in the current, 2009-10 season.

The New York Knicks went 0-for-18 on three-point shot attempts in a 113-93 loss to the lowly New Jersey Nets (box score). This AP/ESPN.com article states that, "According to research by STATS, LLC dating to the 1986-87 season, the previous most attempts without a make was 16 by Washington against the Celtics on Nov. 2, 2007."

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Michigan State went on separate scoring runs of 12-0 and 17-0 en route to a 64-48 victory over intra-state rival University of Michigan in men's Big Ten basketball action.

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Shifting to college baseball, the University of Houston put together eight straight hits (five consecutive singles, followed by a homer, a single, and a double) against Texas Tech pitching, as part of a 10-run outburst in the bottom of the second. In the end, the Cougars prevailed 15-8 (see CBSsports.com Gametracker).

The Tennessee men's basketball team opened up a 17-0 lead on Mississippi State on Saturday, en route to a 75-59 victory.

Tonight at Notre Dame, the University of Connecticut women's basketball team goes for its 69th straight win, which would be one away from the women's NCAA Division I record of 70 straight, which is also held by UConn (from 2001-2003). The Big East conference tournament and NCAA tournament will follow in the coming weeks. Barring any mishaps, the UConn women would be in a position early next season to challenge the UCLA men's record of 88 straight victories from 1971-1974.

UPDATE: UConn has gotten its 69th straight win and will go for 70 on Sunday, in the Big East tourney.

In a battle of two disappointing Big 12 men's teams, Texas Tech and Nebraska, the Red Raiders went on a 17-0 spurt (from down 16-19 to ahead 33-19; see play-by-play sheet), only to be one-upped by the Cornhuskers. Nebraska later went on an 18-0 run of its own, from down 47-37 to up 55-47. Neither team could handle prosperity, which perhaps tells us why they have six conference wins between them, but ultimately, the Huskers prevailed in double-overtime.

Brian Rafalski, a Michigan-born, University of Wisconsin-Madison educated, longtime NHL hockey player is known specifically for not having a hard shot. Yet, in recent Winter Olympic action, he scored four straight of the U.S. team's goals. Last Thursday, Rafalski scored the Americans' final two goals in a 6-1 rout of Norway. Then, in Sunday night's U.S. win over Canada, Rafalski scored the first two goals for the Red, White, and Blue. Not bad for someone who, at this interrupted point in the NHL season, has a total of four goals in 57 games!

Here are some recent runs of one team badly outscoring its opponent in basketball:

The Orlando Magic outscored the Boston Celtics 19-0 en route to a 96-89 win (Sunday).

The University of Texas women's basketball team went on two separate 19-2 runs against Texas Tech (from 14-17 down to 33-19 up; and in expanding a 60-45 lead to 79-47) in defeating the Lady Raiders, 81-51 (Sunday).

The Texas men were on the other end of a scoring burst, allowing Kansas to go on a 22-0 spurt, as part of an 80-68 Jayhawk win (Monday).

I spent the weekend in Madison, Wisconsin, attending the Michigan-Wisconsin outdoor hockey game at Camp Randall football stadium. Given the temperature -- 16 degrees Fahrenheit by game's end -- it's safe to assume that cold hands (and other body parts) were the rule. I have ties to both schools, having received my Ph.D. at Michigan and twice served as a summer visiting professor at Wisconsin, so as soon as this special game was announced many months ago, I decided I had to be there! And, I took some photos as well, which you can click on to enlarge.

If I had to identify a hot-hand performance in the game, it would be the Badgers' Brendan Smith scoring two power-play goals in the game's final minutes, first to tie the game 2-2 with 5:32 remaining and then give Wisconsin the game-winner with 1:22 left. Truth be told, the Wolverines' penalty-killing seemed very poor; even on Badger power plays where they didn't score, Michigan rarely could clear the zone.

At the pro level, two NHL teams have major winning streaks. Thanks to a dramatic comeback win yesterday over Pittsburgh, the Washington Capitals have now been victorious in 14 straight games (game-by-game log), which is just three short of the league record of 17.

Also, the Los Angeles Kings have won nine straight, which is a franchise record. The Kings' history includes such all-time greats as Wayne Gretzky, Luc Robitaille, and Marcel Dionne; hence, it surprises me that today's lower-profile squad is the one setting the record.

In Saturday NBA action, LeBron James scored 24 straight of his team's points in leading Cleveland to a win over New York. James's feat was reminiscent of something he did in a big 2007 playoff game.

When the Michigan State and Wisconsin men's basketball teams take the court tonight at the Kohl Center in Madison (and in UW's following games), we'll get a chance to see if Badgers forward Keaton Nankivil can continue his recent hot stretch of three-point shooting.

Last Thursday at Purdue, Nankivil made an astonishing 7-of-8 from behind the arc. What makes this accomplishment so amazing is that in no previous game this season had Nankivil made more than two treys; further, in the 20 Badger games before the Purdue contest, he had attempted more than three three-pointers only four times (see page 15 of tonight's game notes).

Last year, Nankivil did have a game in which he shot 5-for-5 on threes (also against Purdue), which is all the more noteworthy because he made only nine shots from behind the arc in the 2008-09 season.

In part, Nankivil's increased shooting of late may be a response to teammate Jon Leuer's being out due to injury. Whether Nankivil can become a steady three-point threat, or is just showing signs of becoming college basketball's version of Hee-Seop Choi (a baseball player whose brief major-league career included one three-game series in which he hit six home runs) remains to be seen.

The Texas Tech Lady Raiders have now missed all 20 of their three-point attempts in their last two games. Tech went 0-of-8 last Saturday at Texas A&M and 0-of-12 last night at home against Nebraska.

Going into the Texas A&M game, Texas Tech was hitting three-pointers at a .338 clip. Subtracting that from 1 yields a .662 miss rate. We then raise .662 to the 20th power, giving us an estimate of .0003 (or 3-in-10,000) as the probability of the Lady Raiders missing all 20 trey attempts in their next two games. (This procedure is akin to raising one-sixth to the second power to determine the probability of a rolling double-sixes on two dice, which is 1/36.)

Tech has not always shot so poorly from behind the arc. In a December win at UCLA, for example, the Lady Raiders made nearly half of their long-distance shots (9-of-19; .474). Further, on two occasions, at home vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff (13-23; .565) and in a neutral-site tournament game vs. North Dakota (10-of-18; .556), Tech exceeded 50% on trey attempts.

Here are a few factors to consider in looking at a cold streak like Texas Tech's. First, the rarity of the streak may be exaggerated, given that its dramatic nature drew me into doing a statistical analysis of it, rather than looking at a random cross-section of all teams. Second, one might wonder if a team's poorest outside shooters took a disproportionate number of shots during the drought; that does not seem to be the case as the Lady Raiders' two main outside scoring threats, Jordan Murphree and Ashlee Roberson, took a sizable share of the threes. Third, a scenario that can lead to a lot of missed threes is when a team falls way behind and puts up a lot of desperation shots in an attempt to make up the deficit as quickly as possible. I watched some of the Nebraska game on television and, as the Cornhuskers were opening up a big lead in the first half, I would say the Lady Raiders were putting up some ill-advised treys in an attempt to close the gap.

The University of Memphis had its winning streak in Conference USA games snapped at 64 last night by the University of Texas El Paso (UTEP). Memphis's 64 victories had tied the previous record for consecutive wins in conference play, set by Kentucky in the Southeastern Conference (SEC) from 1945-1950.

Texas Tech nearly pulled out a miracle win against Missouri tonight in Big 12 men's hoops action, thanks to some amazing late three-point shooting. However, Mizzou held on for a 94-89 overtime win.

The Tigers led 74-66 with a little over a minute remaining in regulation. At that point, the Red Raiders' Brad Reese hit a three. Then, quickly finding himself with the ball again after a teammate's steal of Mizzou's inbounds pass, Reese hit another three, just four seconds after his last (play-by-play sheet). Reese was 5-of-6 from behind the arc on the evening.

Mizzou held Tech at bay a bit and hit some free throws to expand its lead to 77-72 with 45 seconds remaining. The Raiders' Nick Okorie then hit a trey with 0:43 left, bringing Tech again within two. Thanks to a late Tiger turnover, the Red Raiders were able to send the game into overtime, tied at 79-all.

In the overtime, Tech's John Roberson made a pair of threes at the 4:09 and 3:30 marks, keeping alive the Raiders' streak from behind the arc, before missing from long-distance at the 2:58 mark. Tech made no more three-pointers, however, and missed a couple of key free throws, thus allowing the Tigers to escape Lubbock with a victory.

In men's college basketball, Oklahoma State went on a 29-1 run to overcome an early deficit and pull away from Texas Tech.

And then there were... none. There are no longer any undefeated teams in the National Football League, as the Indianapolis Colts fell to the New York Jets this afternoon.

Last night saw the extension of one major winning streak and the ending of another.

The Penn State women's volleyball team won its 102nd straight match and third straight NCAA championship, defeating Texas in a dramatic comeback.

However, the NFL's New Orleans Saints suffered their first loss of the season, 24-17 to Dallas. The Saints are now 13-1. The Indianapolis Colts (14-0) are now the only team in contention for a perfect record, with two games to go in the regular season and the playoffs to follow.

Some brief items today:

The Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints each extended their records to 13-0 in NFL action. For Indy, it was also a record 22nd straight regular-season victory.

Golfer Ernie Els had his streak of winning at least one pro tournament a year snapped at 18. In other words, each year from 1991 to 2008, Els had captured at least one tournament, although sometimes on a tour other than the United States PGA (e.g., European Tour, Japan Tour). A comprehensive list of Els's wins is available on his Wikipedia page.

The University of Akron men's soccer team saw it hopes for an undefeated season fall just short, with an overtime (penalty kicks) loss to the University of Virginia in the NCAA College Cup final. The Zips entered the match 23-0-1 (apparently the semi-final match Akron won over North Carolina on penalty kicks is officially considered a tie; see game-by-game log).