Thursday, March 31, 2011

Defining the reading level of a text

How does one estimate the accessibility of a text? What leads to labels such as "This is at the 9th grade reading level"?

Apparently one big factor is the distribution of the number of syllables in the words. Another factor is the length of sentences. Here's a typical formula:
You can use a formula to calculate Flesch-Kincaid reading level on your own. This is a good tool to determine whether a book is going to challenge you.
1. Select a few paragraphs to use as your base.
2. Calculate the average number of words per sentence. Multiply the result by 0.39
3. Calculate the average number of syllables in words (count and divide). Multiply the result by 11.8
4. Add the two results together
5. Subtract 15.59

More on http://www.micropowerandlight.com/rd.html

I have reservations about these tools, at least as applied to material for adults. A text is difficult if it contains many unknown words, of course. One of the tools proposed maintains a database of words; perhaps they are ranked according to frequency in the English language, and one reasonable measure of difficulty would be the frequent occurrence of rare words.

But a text is also difficult if its structure is convoluted. Doing a grammatical analysis and parenthesizing relative clauses, one could compute the levels of nested parentheses, thus measuring the number of partial sentences that the reader must simultaneously keep in mind as he or she is reading. That should be an important factor in readability.

Examining vocabulary is similar to examining the number of notations that the reader of a scientific paper must familiarize himself with and must memorize as he is reading. Studying the nested structure is similar to studying the number of assumptions that the reader must keep in mind while processing a proof ("This is a proof by contradiction, with a case-by-case analysis, and we are in the "else" part of the "if" statement of case 2"...). Shouldn't there be a rigorous way to measure and analyze those parameters in readability?

Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Ehud and Avi on Fukushima

Avi Wigderson: "-Why tolerate errors [in outputs of randomized algorithms]?
-We tolerate uncertainty in life."

Ehud Friedgut: "You have to realize that, when people say: "This is very tiny", sometimes they mean 1/100 and sometimes they mean one over ten billion."

Neither realized it at the time, but they could have been commenting on the Fukushima nuclear plant accident!

Monday, March 28, 2011

Newton Institute: Monday

The people who are here at the Newton Institute (Cambridge, UK) this week are largely the same ones who were in Paris last week, or at Dagstuhl earlier, or in Jerusalem last year. Why do we go from place to place like a flock of migratory birds? What instinct prevents us from settling down anywhere in particular?

Here is what Christopher Lasch writes in his book "The revolt of the elites":
"Ambitious people understand that a migratory way of life is the price of getting ahead. It is a price they gladly pay, since they associate the idea of home with intrusive relatives and neighbors, small-minded gossip, and hidebound conventions. [...] Those who covet membership in the new aristocracy of brains tend to congregate on the coasts, turning their back on the heartland and cultivating ties with the international market [...] Patriotism, certainly, does not rank very high in their hierarchy of virtues. "Multiculturalism", on the other hand, suits them to perfection, conjuring up the agreeable image of a global bazaar in which exotic cuisines, exotic styles of dress, exotic music, exotic tribal customs can be savored indiscriminately, with no questions asked and no commitments required. The new elites are at home in transit, en route to a high-level conference, to the grand opening of a new franchise, to an international film festival, or to an undiscovered resort. Theirs is essentially a tourist's view of the world -- not a perspective likely to encourage a passionate devotion to democracy."
"Their loyalties -- if the term is not itself anachronistic in this context -- are international rather than regional, national, or local. They have more in common with their counterparts in Brussels or Hong Kong than with the masses of Americans not yet plugged into the network of global communication."

Ouch. Thankfully, I cannot possibly fit that description since I am staying in a dorm with a shared bath!

Sunday, March 27, 2011

The beggars of Paris

During my visit to Paris my two offices and my studio were all essentially on the same block, that I got to know by heart.

By the bakery on rue Gay-Lussac, there is a beggar, not always the same one. One day there was a woman and child, who I noticed looked at the chocolate bun that I had bought for breakfast. I gave the child half of my bun, whereupon the adult immediately said: "She is thirsty, too." I answered: "I can't give her that" and went on my way, annoyed for some obscure reason.

By the sea and water institute, there sometimes is a man begging and looking sad. After emptying the tiny fridge in my studio and checking out, as I walked by him with my bag of leftover groceries, his eye caught mine and I was compelled to offer him some of my extra food. But he refused my offer of a box of microwavable lentils and bacon dish: "I have no way to reheat it", he explained. I looked again in my bag, but there was nothing edible without cooking. "Sorry, I don't have anything else", I said regretfully. "It's all right, never mind. Have a nice day!", he answered gracefully. I continued on my way, wondering about the one thing that I could have given him but chose not to take out of the bag and offer him: a bottle of wine...

On rue Pierre et Marie Curie, there are often traces of a presence on the street: empty beer bottles, a sleeping bag drying on a railing, and sometimes an indistinct human form buried in layers of cloth. When I stayed late in the office, once or twice I heard loud drunken noises coming from the street.

At the corner of rue d'Ulm, there is a phone booth that was inhabited last January, but that is currently available. On the other hand, a woman seems to be spending many of her days sitting on a heat grate on the sidewalk. Late one night, I saw a shape in a sleeping bag, set up in the middle of the street, on the piece of pavement off limits to traffic that marked the middle of the intersection! Was it her? Was that her way of setting up some boundaries?

Further down rue d'Ulm, there is a university whose main entrance cuts off the first floor of the building diagonally, providing a shelter. A beggar is set up there. Sometimes he is sleeping. Other times, some large pieces of cardboard are set out and dozens of books are on display, as an improvised streetcorner bookstore. I wish I had looked at it more closely.

Closer to the RER, by the side entrance of the church of St Jacques d Haut Pas, there is a beggar, usually but not always an older woman. One day she was selling daffodils and I bought a bunch, happy with that creative way to generate an income. But she was indifferent to my presence and never raised her eyes to my face. She is only there during the day: perhaps she has a home to go back to at night.

The main entrance of that church also has occasional beggars, two men, but they're not regulars. Maybe they're only there at night and to ask for charity at Mass time.

The beggars in Paris are diverse. Men and women, young and old, with dog or child. I have seen an old woman reading a prayer book, oblivious to her environment. I have seen a young woman, her hair carefully covered with a scarf, in a silent kneeling posture, full of dignity. Her body is there, but her mind seems absent. According to statistics 17 percent of homeless people in Paris are women.

I often wonder what kind of beggar I would be.

Wigderson against Pharisaism

Avi Wigderson taught a mini-course on expanders in Paris last week. I spent some time there learning about expanders, and some time learning about teaching.

When I present an algorithm or proof in a talk, in order to convey the main ideas, I sometimes ignore side concerns, which sometimes makes me take liberties with correctness stricto sensu. Avi takes that approach and carries it to an extreme: when briefly presenting a research direction, he may choose to briefly outline the prettiest algorithm, while briefly citing only the most important paper on the subject, even if there is a mismatch between the result outlined and the paper cited! I would not dare do that (at least not on purpose), for fear of catching hell from authors. But it is morally doing the right thing: giving a pointer to the one paper interested students ought to look at, while attracting them with hints of the most elegant results.

It's sacrificing accuracy in the details, so as to better get the essential ideas across. In fact, it's also sacrificing some accuracy to beauty. It's an anti-Pharisee stance: Pharisees, I am told, were so obsessed with rules and with following every detail of every ritual in exactly the right way, that those regulations obscured the overall purpose of their religious practice.

Friday, March 25, 2011

"P NP is a fact of nature"

That was the message from Avi Wigderson's pop talk on Wednesday in Paris.

Consequently, an open question: how does nature know how to efficiently fold proteins? Is it that our theoretical models are wrong (so that the problem is not really NP-hard)? Or is it that there is additional structure that gives it structure that makes it amenable? Either way, the answer would be interesting.

In Avi's world "interesting" is a word loaded with meaning. He does not employ it to mean a polite lack of dissent, but to mean that something like "revealing a deeper truth".

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Philippe Flajolet

Claude Puech was my PhD advisor, and his own PhD advisor was Philippe Flajolet, so I am a proud to count myself as an academic grandchild of Philippe. In 2007, he gave a great invited talk at the SODA conference in New Orleans, with his usual charisma, enthusiasm and clarity, and we had a "French-speaking lunch" in the New Orleans French quarter, together with a small group of other francophone attendees. Our research tastes are somewhat different, but I have always looked up to him with great admiration.

Today I hear some sad news. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippe_Flajolet

Monday, March 21, 2011

Trust and Authorities

Rather than hearing only a few voices from traditional media, I much prefer the cacophony of internet articles, news and reports about the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, yet the array of more or less informed opinions is bewildering. It would be nice to have a quick way to recognize authorities on an emerging topic. Here is what I have noticed. Some media:

- are not up to date and keep reports that are more than 24 hours behind
- do not date the events they report ("This morning" quickly gets old as a way to date events!)
- do not give quantitative information, confuse legal limit with safe limit, confuse or perhaps intentionally try to confuse short-term risk with long-term risk, confuse individual risk with a population's risk (if an individual now had an additional 3% risk of dying from cancer, that might be acceptable for some individuals under some circumstances; if the Tokyo agglomeration was going to have an excess 1 million deaths from cancer, that would be a major, major public health issue.)
- confuse units (micro versys milli), confuse reactors, confuse reactors with plants, confuse core with spent-fuel pools, confuse containment vessel with outer shell, confuse kilometers with miles, etc.
- do not specify where measurements were taken ("at the plant": 1 km from reactor, at reactor, inside reactor? That's different by orders of magnitude.)
- focus on the future at the expense of description of the present
- when asked to make a prediction, only give a best case description, or only give a worst-case description
- do not put their quantitative information in context. What is safe? How safe is safe?

I found that interviews of scientists and experts do not actually yield a more level-headed assessment. The main effect seems to be to give more confidence to whatever assessment the newspaper is aiming for, but the resulting article is more biased than it would otherwise be. Just because scientists are able to avoid basic mistakes does not mean that they do not emphasize only the information that goes the way they want it to go! On the contrary, I am afraid that they come off looking not very good. One can definitely not consider them to be trustworthy authorities.

I found that the wikipedia website on the nuclear accident was one of the best sources of information. Sometimes a useful information appeared and later disappeared, but not often. That's a little bit mysterious: how can something as loosely controled as wikipedia give such reliable information?

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

UPDATED- “The past was erased, the erasure was forgotten, the lie became truth.” - Trust the experts!

UPDATE- Apparently Dr. Josef Oehmen, an MIT specialist in risk management, is the author of the essay “Why I’m not worried about Japan’s nuclear reactors”. It was an email that he sent to his family in Japan and that went viral.

That changes a lot of things. A private message to try to reassure one's family is very different from a report posted for the general public. Even though the writer is being reassuring, he could be having reservations that he preferred not to voice: "The large amount of cooling water that has been used is sufficient to take up that heat [in petto: at least, I hope so]. ... Boric acid is "liquid control rod". Whatever decay is still going on, the Boron will capture the neutrons [in petto: I hope so!] "...

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/japan-reactors-pose-no-risk-2011-3#ixzz1GiJ7unMl

Isn't it ironical that I have to correct a post in which I complained about other people's updates to their own posts!

-------------------------- Original post ----------------------------

On the day before yesterday, in a comment, Neal linked to a detailed guest post there
from a nuclear expert presenting the technology behind the design of the Fukushima muclear power plant and explaining that there is no reason to worry.

Today the post has been moved to an MIT nuclear physics website (were the original contributors from there? I did not pay attention), but it's been vastly edited. Now it is purely factual, the claim that the containment vessels are impossible to damage has disappeared, and the confident assessment of an evolution where everything is under control has totally disappeared. The rewriting of history has started!

Suddenly I am sorely missing our old-fashioned paper media. The shameless removal of erroneous expert predictions that I am witnessing here is reminiscent of 1984. The proper thing to do would have been to leave in place the piece that was already there, while adding an update. Perhaps, cross out some sentences so that the reader can see what statements made on day x are rescinded in day x+2. How else can we make accountable the scientists who inform public opinion and who serve as advisors for political decisions? How else can we restore the credibility of scientists among the general public?

------------------------

Meanwhile the journalists reports of radioactive measurements are showing some confusion between microsieverts and millisierverts. Not in any intentional way, I think. I do not see a pattern of deception but genuine mistakes.

Monday, March 14, 2011

More on rare events

AP Paris -- "“Europe has to wake up from its Sleeping Beauty slumber” about nuclear safety, Austria’s Environment Minister Nikolaus Berlakovich told reporters in Brussels. He suggested an EU-wide stress test for nuclear plants, much like European banks have been tested for their ability to cope with financial shocks. Yet some experts and officials say those fears are overblown, given the exceptional nature of Japan’s earthquake and ensuing tsunami. The Japanese blasts may slow the push for more nuclear plants, but appear unlikely to stop it, given the world’s fast-growing energy needs."

"exceptional" = roughly one-in-twenty-five odds, in the present case, according to historical records of natural disasters in Japan.
How many once-a-millenium events are dismissed in various countries when designing nuclear power plants, because of their "exceptional" nature?

What Yuval Peres was telling me today: that people cannot distinguish between odds of one-in-one-hundred and of one-in-one-million. That's why there is every reason to be worried about current safety measures everywhere. The last sentence of the AP article reminds me of a XIVth century French proverb: "Il n'est pire sourd que celui qui ne veut pas entendre" [No one is deaf like the one who does not want to hear].

--------------------

When I go into the mountains with my son, sometimes we go to exposed locations. At this point he is more nimble than me and I cannot protect him physically; but I always remind him: "Here, you must not fall. Don't go there if you're not sure you'll make it. Don't go, even if you think that the odds are 9 in 10 that you'll be fine. Even 99 out of 100 is not good enough, since that would mean that you would fall after we've gone mountaineering for a hundred times or so. In this instance (say, walking on top of a cliff with a tremendous drop all but guaranteeing death in case of a fall, for example), I don't want you to fall, not even once." --- of course the safer option would be not to go mountaineering at all, but life would be pretty dull if we could not do the things that bring us the most joy; so there's some amount of risk that we're willing to take. I know that there is a risk, I hope that it is minuscule, and I trust that my son knows how to gauge it. Mountain guides: that's one profession where they have to know how to assess risk if they want to grow old.

Meanwhile, a few proponents of nuclear energy are admiringly drawing attention to the 50 Japanese plants that did not cause any trouble in spite of the earthquake and tsunami. That argument does not inspire trust but misgivings, raising doubts about the competence of those "experts" in risk assessment. Maybe nuclear power companies should recruit mountain guides for consulting!
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