Do you have LOC\LOM number for new J-246?
Sorry forgot to mention...
LOM/LOC numbers are pretty artificial. If I was sitting on top of a launch vehicle I would want:-
1) Engines that demonstrably fail very infrequently
2) ...and fail benignly when they do fail.
3) A vehicle that has margin to cope with a failed engine
4) ...and pushes as few new technological boundaries as possible.
Regardless of numbers, that's the vehicle that's least likely to kill a crew on the first dozen flights (IMO).
Is the Direct team not leading themselves open if they switch to the J-246, like NASA that they keep on refining their plans? All good, PM know that Planning is good, and there will be refinement as you know more but at some point you have to implement. Is the Direct team basically saying that the Constellation team really needs to revaluate the whole program due to the wrong assumptions that they made in the ESAS study. That would take a strong leader at NASA to say, we may have made a mistake in the ESAS study.
As I understand, DIRECT have always kept their vehicle as similar as possible to Ares-V. When Ares chose RS-68, DIRECT were "stuck with it" (and J2-X), too. (Not that it doesn't perform fine).
DIRECT's decision to look again at SSME was driven by news that ablative RS-68 probably won't work with Ares, and by implication may be marginal at best with Jupiter. Apparently Ares baseline has switched to SSME, but this has not been announced externally.
This came out of NASA research that is way beyond DIRECT's ability to fund. It validates DIRECT's policy of keeping their designs "as close as possible", since that research is directly applicable. Most issues that Ares-V suffers will be present to some degree with Jupiter, but usually scaled back to around the levels with which the Shuttle design & components already cope. And that's the whole rationale behind "Shuttle Derived Launch Vehicle" -
reuse of mature technology.
cheers, Martin