Articles | Volume 11, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-599-2011
© Author(s) 2011. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-599-2011
© Author(s) 2011. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Attribution of observed changes in stratospheric ozone and temperature
N. P. Gillett, H. Akiyoshi, S. Bekki, P. Braesicke, V. Eyring, R. Garcia, A. Yu. Karpechko, C. A. McLinden, O. Morgenstern, D. A. Plummer, J. A. Pyle, E. Rozanov, J. Scinocca, and K. Shibata
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
Service d'Aéronomie, Institut Pierre-Simone Laplace, Paris, France
University of Cambridge, Department of Chemistry, Cambridge/National Centre for Atmospheric Science, UK
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Environment Canada, Toronto, Canada
University of Cambridge, Department of Chemistry, Cambridge/National Centre for Atmospheric Science, UK
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Lauder, New Zealand
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
University of Cambridge, Department of Chemistry, Cambridge/National Centre for Atmospheric Science, UK
Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center, Davos, Switzerland
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH, Zurich, Switzerland
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan
Abstract. Three recently-completed sets of simulations of multiple chemistry-climate models with greenhouse gases only, with all anthropogenic forcings, and with anthropogenic and natural forcings, allow the causes of observed stratospheric changes to be quantitatively assessed using detection and attribution techniques. The total column ozone response to halogenated ozone depleting substances and to natural forcings is detectable in observations, but the total column ozone response to greenhouse gas changes is not separately detectable. In the middle and upper stratosphere, simulated and observed SBUV/SAGE ozone changes are broadly consistent, and separate anthropogenic and natural responses are detectable in observations. The influence of ozone depleting substances and natural forcings can also be detected separately in observed lower stratospheric temperature, and the magnitudes of the simulated and observed responses to these forcings and to greenhouse gas changes are found to be consistent. In the mid and upper stratosphere the simulated natural and combined anthropogenic responses are detectable and consistent with observations, but the influences of greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances could not be separately detected in our analysis.
How to cite. Gillett, N. P., Akiyoshi, H., Bekki, S., Braesicke, P., Eyring, V., Garcia, R., Karpechko, A. Yu., McLinden, C. A., Morgenstern, O., Plummer, D. A., Pyle, J. A., Rozanov, E., Scinocca, J., and Shibata, K.: Attribution of observed changes in stratospheric ozone and temperature, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 599–609, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-599-2011, 2011.
Received: 12 May 2010 – Discussion started: 16 Jul 2010 – Revised: 03 Nov 2010 – Accepted: 01 Jan 2011 – Published: 20 Jan 2011