Articles | Volume 10, issue 19
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-9473-2010
© Author(s) 2010. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-9473-2010
© Author(s) 2010. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of stratospheric ozone over the 21st century
A. J. Charlton-Perez, E. Hawkins, V. Eyring, I. Cionni, G. E. Bodeker, D. E. Kinnison, H. Akiyoshi, S. M. Frith, R. Garcia, A. Gettelman, J. F. Lamarque, T. Nakamura, S. Pawson, Y. Yamashita, S. Bekki, P. Braesicke, M. P. Chipperfield, S. Dhomse, M. Marchand, E. Mancini, O. Morgenstern, G. Pitari, D. Plummer, J. A. Pyle, E. Rozanov, J. Scinocca, K. Shibata, T. G. Shepherd, W. Tian, and D. W. Waugh
University of Reading, Dept. of Meteorology, Reading, UK
University of Reading, Dept. of Meteorology, Reading, UK
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Bodeker Scientific, The Elms, Alexandra, New Zealand
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Lanham MD 20706, USA
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
Service d'Aeronomie, Institut Pierre-Simone Laplace, Paris, France
University of Cambridge, Department of Chemistry, Cambridge, UK
University of Leeds, Institute for Atmospheric Science, UK
University of Leeds, Institute for Atmospheric Science, UK
Service d'Aeronomie, Institut Pierre-Simone Laplace, Paris, France
Universit� L'Aquila, Dipartimento di Fisica, L'Aquila, Italy
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Reasearch, Lauder, New Zealand
Universit� L'Aquila, Dipartimento di Fisica, L'Aquila, Italy
Environment Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
University of Cambridge, Department of Chemistry, Cambridge, UK
Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center, Davos, Switzerland
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science ETH, Zurich, Switzerland
Environment Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan
University of Toronto, Department of Physics, Canada
University of Leeds, Institute for Atmospheric Science, UK
Johns Hopkins University, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
Abstract. Future stratospheric ozone concentrations will be determined both by changes in the concentration of ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and by changes in stratospheric and tropospheric climate, including those caused by changes in anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs). Since future economic development pathways and resultant emissions of GHGs are uncertain, anthropogenic climate change could be a significant source of uncertainty for future projections of stratospheric ozone. In this pilot study, using an "ensemble of opportunity" of chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations, the contribution of scenario uncertainty from different plausible emissions pathways for ODSs and GHGs to future ozone projections is quantified relative to the contribution from model uncertainty and internal variability of the chemistry-climate system. For both the global, annual mean ozone concentration and for ozone in specific geographical regions, differences between CCMs are the dominant source of uncertainty for the first two-thirds of the 21st century, up-to and after the time when ozone concentrations return to 1980 values. In the last third of the 21st century, dependent upon the set of greenhouse gas scenarios used, scenario uncertainty can be the dominant contributor. This result suggests that investment in chemistry-climate modelling is likely to continue to refine projections of stratospheric ozone and estimates of the return of stratospheric ozone concentrations to pre-1980 levels.
How to cite. Charlton-Perez, A. J., Hawkins, E., Eyring, V., Cionni, I., Bodeker, G. E., Kinnison, D. E., Akiyoshi, H., Frith, S. M., Garcia, R., Gettelman, A., Lamarque, J. F., Nakamura, T., Pawson, S., Yamashita, Y., Bekki, S., Braesicke, P., Chipperfield, M. P., Dhomse, S., Marchand, M., Mancini, E., Morgenstern, O., Pitari, G., Plummer, D., Pyle, J. A., Rozanov, E., Scinocca, J., Shibata, K., Shepherd, T. G., Tian, W., and Waugh, D. W.: The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of stratospheric ozone over the 21st century, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 9473–9486, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-9473-2010, 2010.
Received: 25 Mar 2010 – Discussion started: 06 May 2010 – Revised: 09 Jul 2010 – Accepted: 20 Aug 2010 – Published: 07 Oct 2010